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LOL we had a Tsunami warning here in the Bay area, everyone's phones went off. The office was in a panic, the Fremont chief of Police posted on X that everyone should evacuate. I just sat at my desk working and one of my co-workers was urging me to evacuate. I just looked at him and said "Son, if a wave big enough from near the Oregon coast reaches us, we are dead anyway". I just figured I'll sit it out in my Tesla and hope it floats 🤣Then when I was really having fun, this came over our phones:
EV battery replacement will soon cost less than fixing a gas engine: study
A new study claims that replacing an electric vehicle battery will soon cost less than fixing the engine of a gas car. This is one of the most notable arguments that supporters of combustion engines use to attempt to disprove the effectiveness of electric vehicles.
Recurrent found that the cost of electric vehicle batteries and where they are headed in terms of pricing is on pace for the replacement of an entire pack to be less than a gas engine repair by 2030.
This was supported by the projected cost of EV battery prices in a new study from Goldman Sachs. The firm said that by 2026, battery prices are projected to reach $80 per kilowatt hour (kWh), roughly half the price of what they were priced in 2023.
In just three years, the cost of EV batteries was sliced in half, but the movement could continue to work in the favor of consumers and EV drivers. Goldman Sachs continued to report that their projected cost for batteries is $64 per kWh, but some, like RMI, have it as low as $32 per kWh.
The report from Recurrent states:
Goldman Sachs’ October 2024 report puts the estimated pack price in 2030 at $64/kWh. Compared to other estimates, this number is high. In January 2024, industry leader RMI estimated a 2030 cell price of $32–$54/kWh, or $45-$65/kWh for the pack. However, over the course of 2024, CATL began offering LFP cells as low as $56/kWh and BYD followed. This summer, Clean Energy Associate predicted that the global market for lithium-ion batteries will remain oversupplied through 2028, meaning even lower than anticipated prices.”
The study continued:
“This puts pack prices at or under $50/kWh. For a huge, 100 kWh pack, replacement costs might be $4500-$5000, or $3,375 for a more standard 75 kWh pack. That’s on par with an engine replacement!”
This would effectively mean the cost of replacing an EV battery pack would drop to 30 percent of what it did in 2020.
Goldman Sachs detailed the causes of the prices per kWh dropping in its report:
“A continued downturn in battery metal prices. That includes lithium and cobalt, and nearly 60% of the cost of batteries is from metals. …Roughly over 40% of the decline is just coming from lower commodity costs, because we had a lot of green inflation during 2020 to 2023.”
The EV sector is still young, but the encouraging studies that show prices for battery replacement going down are big news for both companies and consumers.
Companies can likely rely on these price reductions to help increase sales and start seeing some return on their massive investments in EVs. Meanwhile, consumers will be less weary of the expensive task of replacing a battery pack.
“This puts pack prices at or under $50/kWh. For a huge, 100 kWh pack, replacement costs might be $4500-$5000, or $3,375 for a more standard 75 kWh pack. That’s on par with an engine replacement!”
$3,375 for an engine replacement I don't think so you'd be lucky to get a used engine put in for that. Here's a Toyota engine used in dozens of models, not that these need replacement very often just like a battery pack.
Swapping a battery is 2-3 hour job swapping an engine is 20 hours.
putting bob and ajt in the same group? thanks for the laugh.
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What does this mean? Bob and I both love LS430s and feel absolutely 1000000% identical about them, so we actually have something in common. He has two of them, one low mileage example ready to go when the other one gets too many miles.
I have said repeatedly I don't hate EVs. I've been on here talking praising them actually, lol, Teslas in particular.
I have also said if I had just FU money I'd absolutely have the fastest CyberT, or a Plaid Model S.
Contrary to some that insist Toyota has cancelled their EV plans they haven't, the LF-ZC EV has been delayed and production expectations have been lowered but still significant.
The LF-ZC EV, intended as a technological leap for Toyota’s luxury brand, Lexus. Revealed as a concept vehicle last year, it is expected to arrive with a futuristic design and a range of up to 1,000 kilometers (621 miles). Even with such a high range, the automaker is aiming for the LF-ZC EV to be able to be fully charged within 20 minutes. Borrowing a page from Tesla’s playbook, Toyota will use gigacast manufacturing techniques to build the EV.
While Toyota hasn’t officially confirmed any changes to the production schedule, a report from Japan’s NHK says delaying production to 2027 will give Toyota time to develop these features, ensuring the vehicle can live up to expectations.
Initially, Toyota planned to produce 1.5 million EVs by 2026, with a goal of 500,000 sales of advanced next-generation models by 2030. However, Toyota has since adjusted its 2026 EV production target downward to 1 million units.
Kudo to Tesla... They finally got RCTA going. Any other brands still do not have RCTA?
Probably not.
I wonder which specific models/years will get it (obviously anything they've made since 2020 will get it as they have enough hardware - cameras and radar sensors).
I hope mine gets it even though it's older than 2020.
I absolutely could make that trade off, but at the end of the day I didnt like the EV option as much as the gas option as a car so I didnt do it. If I really wanted the 7 series as a car more than the S Class, I would have done it. Had there been an EV S Class that was identical to the gas one I would have done it.
I can’t get there on one charge. Would still have to stop and charge and there are still only 3 places to do that along the whole trip, and they all are about halfway. Too stressful.
Yes, you said it. EVs are great but they are not the solution for some yet. Not ideal but I don't mind having one for daily commute and I would need an additional vehicle for different purposes.
Yes, you said it. EVs are great but they are not the solution for some yet. Not ideal but I don't mind having one for daily commute and I would need an additional vehicle for different purposes.
The only reason Im holding on to my Sienna is, 1) it's paid off and 2) no minivan options available to replace it. I know people are going to tell me the VW van, but that's expensive as well as compromised as far as range and power. But I fully understand that EV'S won't work for everyone at this point in time, especially those that don't have home charging and limited super charging access.
As a daily commuter, they are fully ready for primetime for most people, it just boils down to individual choices...to EV or not to EV
EV owners, take a break from being red light bullies and see what your car can really do on the track.
To be totally honest, I don't really care about what a car can do on the track, but what it can do for me in my daily life. Being a red light bully is only a side benefit 😂
Yes, you said it. EVs are great but they are not the solution for some yet. Not ideal but I don't mind having one for daily commute and I would need an additional vehicle for different purposes.
i dont think they will be solution for everyone for a long time.
IE in Europe, diesels owned the market for 3 decades... yet their market share was 55% at best. Plus worldwide, their market share was 9%.
So without legislation, there will be choices always.
Norway is moving to 100% BEV because taxes are much higher on other cars... thats the only way you can get to 100% in anything - legislation.
Interesting term "EV owners are red light bullies". So what do you call an ICE owner that does the same thing?
Why is there even an expression like that?
I heard that term is used 2 different ways. One is for people that indiscriminately run red lights after the light changes. The other is referring to drivers with fast cars that love to smoke other people when the light turns green. I'm 100% in group 2.
I heard that term is used 2 different ways. One is for people that indiscriminately run red lights after the light changes. The other is referring to drivers with fast cars that love to smoke other people when the light turns green. I'm 100% in group 2.
Same here if I had a Plaid. 🙂
Because I don't have a Plaid I check to see what car is beside me. 90% of the time I can smoke most cars unless there's another faster Tesla beside me or some very expensive fast ICE car with AWD. And I'm in my 60's....
A couple of days ago there was a Hyundai Ionic 5 N behind me. I didn't bother flooring the throttle as it's a 3.1 second car vs. my 4 s slow poke 75D. 😄
Any other brands still do not have RCTA?
