General EV Conversation
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Joined: Feb 2024
Posts: 558
Likes: 130
From: NJ/FL
I don't think BEVs will ever reach 30%, at least as long as I'm alive. Make all the awesome ones... but still offer ICE vehicles because Americans still want them. Why can't MB do what BMW did with the 7 series and have them look the same?? That was a SERIOUSLY smart move IMO.
In any case don't shoot the messenger. The whole Hertz thing where the guy is stepping down, what a disaster. They lost a quarter of a billion dollars. Ouch.
In any case don't shoot the messenger. The whole Hertz thing where the guy is stepping down, what a disaster. They lost a quarter of a billion dollars. Ouch.
Yes, it is a LONG LONG way to 30% of total registered cars, especially given the current slowdown in its growth.
Lexus Champion
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 19,656
Likes: 3,748
From: California
where? where will they not reach? This is China, largest market in the world:
2023 Sales
It is already up in 2024 in China.
Now my neck of the woods? I am with you, 70% will not happen without some crazy stuff, but i expect overall western EU to go over 50% in next 5 years max. It is around 20% already for BEVs.
Now look at it from manufacturers view - a lot of important new car markets are rapidly moving to BEV. It is panic time. They dont know how to do it and nobody but Tesla makes any money on it. Of course plans change.
2023 Sales
It is already up in 2024 in China.
Now my neck of the woods? I am with you, 70% will not happen without some crazy stuff, but i expect overall western EU to go over 50% in next 5 years max. It is around 20% already for BEVs.
Now look at it from manufacturers view - a lot of important new car markets are rapidly moving to BEV. It is panic time. They dont know how to do it and nobody but Tesla makes any money on it. Of course plans change.
Lexus Champion
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 19,656
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From: California
I'm not sure why people deny the inevitable
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Joined: Feb 2024
Posts: 558
Likes: 130
From: NJ/FL
https://explodingtopics.com/blog/ele...vehicles-stats
Last edited by asj2024; Mar 19, 2024 at 03:45 PM.
Lexus Champion
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 19,656
Likes: 3,748
From: California
Notice that says *sales*, which equates to new registrations. In terms of total number of registered cars on the road right now, all plugins, including PHEVs, make up only around 0.9% of the total.
https://explodingtopics.com/blog/ele...vehicles-stats
https://explodingtopics.com/blog/ele...vehicles-stats
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Joined: Feb 2024
Posts: 558
Likes: 130
From: NJ/FL
Of course, there are over 40 million cars just in California alone. Those aren't going to go away overnight. In terms of gasoline vehicles, they are going to be in the majority for years to come, even if lets say 50 percent of new cars were BEV's. So I was referring to recent sales
Remember that 90% of sales right now are still non plugin, so unless plugin sales accelerate much faster (and does not slow down) it will take a very very long time to get to 30% total cars on the road.
Lexus Champion
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 19,656
Likes: 3,748
From: California
Which is why I'm asking whether he means 30% of sales or 30% of total cars on the road.
Remember that 90% of sales right now are still non plugin, so unless plugin sales accelerate much faster (and does not slow down) it will take a very very long time to get to 30% total cars on the road.
Remember that 90% of sales right now are still non plugin, so unless plugin sales accelerate much faster (and does not slow down) it will take a very very long time to get to 30% total cars on the road.
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You don't think in the next 40 years EVs will have 30% market share? Thats absurd, IMO. 40 years is a long time.
but to me, with all car makers working on ev's (even luddite toyota/lexus while they continue with the "electrified" fud campaign) and loads of growing ev car markets, the ev tipping point will be reached within 10 years (meaning greater than 50% of new vehicles sold/leased will be ev imo). momentum, regulation, better product and charging will all make it happen.
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 68,486
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From: Maryland
That had a HUGE impact on the age of cars on the road.
but to me, with all car makers working on ev's (even luddite toyota/lexus while they continue with the "electrified" fud campaign) and loads of growing ev car markets, the ev tipping point will be reached within 10 years (meaning greater than 50% of new vehicles sold/leased will be ev imo). momentum, regulation, better product and charging will all make it happen.
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 25,962
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From: Alberta
Not when it comes to battery costs, see Tony Seba he accurately predicted things going back over a decade. At the time people thought he was crazy. Even if we see a 50% slowdown of battery tech in the next decade vs last that is still lights out for gas cars they have no chance.
Lexus Champion
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 11,198
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From: FL
I think in 40 years we will see 30% of the cars on the road in the US being EV for sure, likely higher than that. Personally I think the biggest thing that the government could do to get older cars off the road for EVs is to have another program like Cash 4 Clunkers where they will guarantee a rebate on a new EV or PHEV with the sale of an old ICE car with an agreement that it be demolished.
Those kind of programs greatly reduces supply for older vehicles.
Lexus Champion
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 19,656
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From: California
Only junkers qualified for the program he's talking about. Old 90's cars that didn't even pass smog. My nephew got an $8500 rebate for my 1995 Corolla that had 200k on it, that was falling apart. Not only a safety hazard, but pollution hazard. Why not get those off the road and help someone get in a better car?
Lexus Champion
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 11,198
Likes: 1,582
From: FL
Only junkers qualified for the program he's talking about. Old 90's cars that didn't even pass smog. My nephew got an $8500 rebate for my 1995 Corolla that had 200k on it, that was falling apart. Not only a safety hazard, but pollution hazard. Why not get those off the road and help someone get in a better car?
Many of us are comfortable but we have a large population of people who are at the poverty level.
It would be like me saying, let demolish your house and give you a discount on a new house you can't afford the payments on. Lol
ANd if you can afford the payments, what about the poor man who needed a cheap house or car. Lol
Lexus Champion
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 19,656
Likes: 3,748
From: California
Sorry my brother, you can't compare a house to a car... unless it's Lambo or RR
