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Literally everyone believes themselves to be an above-average driver As for Musk's 10bn mile data target, we're now only about 800 million miles short.
I have taken advanced driving courses and am certainly an above average driver.
But if every human driver was replaced with self driving how many accidents would there be? You assume it would be less, but thats an assumption. There isn't any data that proves it would be less, which is what we are saying.
important thing to note... human drivers aren't getting any better. ever. fsd gets better constantly.
and no we don't have to assume, the data is already there... human drivers overall SUCK.
Originally Posted by SW17LS
I have taken advanced driving courses and am certainly an above average driver.
you are comparing over 8 billion miles of driving with just you and 'advanced courses'. hardly a relevant comparison, and yes, fsd today REQUIRES driver oversight, so it's not fully autonomous. and no one here is saying it's perfect. or better than you in all circumstances.
I have been driving for 30 years with no accidents. So, 6 months doesn't convince me its safer than me.
i haven't had an accident in decades either but without question fsd is better at driving than i am. have i seen it make mistakes... minor ones, sure, mostly navigation related, not driving.
you just seem to want to 'wait for perfection' to 'prove' your point.
you are comparing over 8 billion miles of driving with just you and 'advanced courses'. hardly a relevant comparison, and yes, fsd today REQUIRES driver oversight, so it's not fully autonomous. and no one here is saying it's perfect. or better than you in all circumstances.
Its a relevant comparison for me when I am deciding if I am willing to turn over driving myself to the system.
I haven't had an accident in decades either but without question fsd is better at driving than i am. have i seen it make mistakes... minor ones, sure, mostly navigation related, not driving.
you just seem to want to 'wait for perfection' to 'prove' your point.
I'm just saying what I myself want to see before I would sit in the back seat and let the thing drive me around, I'm a long way off from doing that or believing its going to drive me and my family more safely than I can. Not saying my decision should impact anybody else. I'm just not really at all interested in being driven by a computer program.
I'm just saying what I myself want to see before I would sit in the back seat and let the thing drive me around, I'm a long way off from doing that or believing its going to drive me and my family more safely than I can. Not saying my decision should impact anybody else. I'm just not really at all interested in being driven by a computer program.
Well that's a different use case than FSD solves today. There aren't any "consumer grade" solutions for that specific use case, at least not quite yet. But Tesla is closer than anyone, particularly as FSD is effectively a fork of the full RoboTaxi/CyberCab code base that can absolutely deliver on that.
What full FSD offers is ultimately more at the aggregate level, as cool as hell as it is to use it individually (and it absolutely is). If all cars were driven by a competent and networked computer, particularly at peak times, there would fewer accidents and, crucially, significantly faster and much more efficient traffic flow.
I like driving and appreciate a good driving road as much as anyone, but when the goal is to get as many people to their destination as quick as possible - in other words, everyone with a daily commute - there is zero doubt in my mind that everyone would get there faster and with far fewer incidents and accidents if everyone were being driven by FSD.
If everyone were driven by FSD is a different situation than having FSD drive me on roads predominately driven on by actual people. There is an instinct that comes from experience as to what other drivers are going to do that isn't easily created artificially. I would be more comfortable being driven by FSD if every car was driven by FSD but thats not a scenario we will be in during my lifetime...
That capability is going to be here sooner than you think. Third party solutions like comma.ai fill can already bring FSD-type self driving to cars that don't otherwise have it, and the compatible car list is surprisingly extensive.
I also think you may be overestimating your own ability (and to be clear, I don't intend that as a dig - albeit the first rule of Dunning Kruger club is that you have no idea you are a member of Dunning Kruger club ). Most people go a long time between accidents. And most people absolutely do believe themselves to be above-average drivers. It's one of the universal truisms. It's far from unusual to have a blemish-free driving record. I've never had an at fault accident either. The only one I've been involved in, with the other party at fault, was where they failed to react quickly enough when traffic ahead of us stopped. Something which would, almost certainly, have been avoided if the other party were using FSD had it been available back then...
That capability is going to be here sooner than you think. Third party solutions like comma.ai fill can already bring FSD-type self driving to cars that don't otherwise have it, and the compatible car list is surprisingly extensive.
I also think you may be overestimating your own ability (and to be clear, I don't intend that as a dig - albeit the first rule of Dunning Kruger club is that you have no idea you are a member of Dunning Kruger club ). Most people go a long time between accidents. And most people absolutely do believe themselves to be above-average drivers. It's one of the universal truisms. It's far from unusual to have a blemish-free driving record. I've never had an at fault accident either. The only one I've been involved in, with the other party at fault, was where they failed to react quickly enough when traffic ahead of us stopped. Something which would, almost certainly, have been avoided if the other party were using FSD had it been available back then...
Capability, but until all or most cars on the road are being driven autonomously? LONG way off.
I'm not overstating my ability as a driver. I said I was an "above average driver", and I am. I didn't say I was a stunt driver, or an F1 driver, or a secret service driver lol. I have made becoming a great driver a focus in my life and gave spent time and energy being trained and practicing etc, I think anybody would say that makes me "above average".
I don't know where I rank on driving skills scale (probably below average. Lol) but I for sure don't trust FSD over myself. Would I use it as a tool to assist? Honestly, not really unless it's less expensive or free. It was personally hard for me to adjust the system to drive similar the way I like. I would prefer something like Enhanced AutoPilot or DAPP where it would help me stay safe but in control to decide when to move. No doubt I could make mistakes that would have been avoided by FSD. But no way I would feel comfortable sitting there letting it drive. After that one encounter, I always found myself in "ready to react" mode, it's a lot worse feeling and more stressful than driving the car myself. Totally not worth it for me. If you trust FSD enough to use it, it's a wonderful technology. No doubt. Being able to bring the car to you is already unreal.
Sign me up when its out of beta and no longer needs supervision. Leave the option for human driving of course. But no qualms here. Heck make it a license so other vehicles can adopt it to their stack.