it should still increase from last year though, because it rides well, is stylish and has good engines.

 

Yes, the previous Camry had the 2nd best sales on record.
While the current RAV4 has record sales of some 407,000+ units/yr USA.
RAV4 sales my even surpass Camry sales by the end of 2018, such that we have a 50/50 situation between Camry and RAV4?
Beyond 2018, will RAV4's short tall design outsell the traditional long low design, and will this ever stop?

However, both Camry and RAV4 are heavily purchased by young.
Avalon not as popular with the young; why would young need such a large car.
So it will be interesting to see how this ploy pays off for Avalon...

PS
One thing I always talk about when designing motor vehicles is to look at the age of the buyer.
As age increases, the waist line increases, family size increases, but the pockets become deeper too.
Hence, older buyers and drivers prefer more conservatively styled [as opposed to radically styled], larger vehicles, maybe taller too, but also quieter & softer riding, yet more expensive vehicles.
.

 

I don't know if this is necessarily a given. I would hope so, especially for the first few months, but it'll be interesting if it can sustain any sort of prolonged increase in demand over the outgoing model. As noted, the full-size sedan segment is struggling mightily. Even the all-new LaCrosse is seeing dramatically lower sales volumes despite an all-new offering. Yes the Buick brand snuggles in a bunch of additional ways, but an all-new product no longer guarantees increases in sales volumes, especially with the demand in the segment and overall new vehicle sales across the industry beginning to taper off.

 

I have to disagree with at least part of that. Making cars that appeal to the retired still makes sense, considering that, especially those with good pensions and other income, they generally have disposable money to spend on new vehicles, although not necessarily as much as those in their 50s and early 60s, right before retirement. How many young people, for example, do you see buying the Lexus LS or Mercedes S550? It's not that young people necessarily dislike that type of car (I certainly did when I was young)....it's that most young people simply can't afford that kind of purchase.

 

 

 

What you're forgetting is that even a lot of those 65+ aren't buying big sedans any more. It's not just a question of the elderly not buying what they have traditionally done. They are also, to an extent at least, buying SUVs.

 

In December the current gen Avalon sold 2,427 (-50%) cars and for the year 32.6k (-32%) cars. The new gen will probably boost sales somewhat in the short term at least.

The new LaCrosse sold 1,385 (-50%) cars in December and for the year 20.1k (-27%) cars. The future is probably more cloudy for the Lacrosse for a variety of reasons.

As has been discussed, both are victims of the changing landscape in the market.

 

 

 

The Avalon would probably sell better than it does if it wasn't bumping up against its own ES350 brother. The ES350, for several reasons, takes a BIG number of sales that would otherwise go to Toyota.

I find its comfort and refinement a pretty good reason to own one, though I'll admit that a couple of its competitors also provide a good dose of that. And, with some of the big sedans in that class, it may be now-or-never, if they end up being dropped. There's an old saying...he who hesitates is lost.

 

 

Precisely.

A single model can sell in larger quantities, if there is less competition in that segment of the market.
Greater competition in the same segment of the market makes volumes lower.
Eg if I'm not wong, the RAV4 has fewer competing models in its segment of the market compared to Camry, hence relatively high RAV4 sales.
In other words, the Camry's market segment is actually much larger than the RAV4's market segment, but RAV4 has large volumes due to fewer competing models...

 

The Compact Utility segment, in which the RAV4 competes, is now the largest in the passenger car market, it surpassed the midsize sedan (Camry/Accord) a year or two ago. Just as competitive in both segments.

 

Yes, you're right.
The compact utility segment is now by far the biggest segment of the market in the USA.

In 2017 USA:
Subcompact 480,998
Subcompact Utility 424,724

Compact 2,164,507 (Rank 2)
Compact Utility 3,159,468 (Rank 1)

Midsize 1,963,757 (Rank 4)
Midsize Utility 1,988,460 (Rank 3)

Large 392,129 [Avalon in here]
Large Utility 342,525