That's because gasoline cars have been around for 100 years, and EV's didn't start going mainstream until around 2020. Most affordable EV's had around a 150 to 170 mile range until 2021. The Ioniq 5, Ford Mach-E and other similar cars didn't come out until 2021, then Tesla started cutting prices and what do you know, Model Y is now the world's best selling car.

What you don't want to accept is EV sales are growing by 48 percent YoY. Because there are millions of ICE vehicles already on the road, it will take time for EV's to replace those, but as far as new car sales, give it 5 years and ICE is done

 

Even Georgia gets it, declaring Feb 26, 2024 "Hyundai Day" for their new EV plant in Georgia. That's an Ioniq 5 in the picture behind them

State Leaders Celebrate Hyundai Motor Group’s Historic Impact on Georgia

https://www.georgia.org/press-releas...impact-georgia

 

I think 20% or more of new registrations is very possible, especially if you include hybrids, given that some manufacturers might transition all or most of their cars into hybrids.

As to 20% of ALL cars on the road in the USA being plugins? Unless people are FORCED to change, that will not happen soon.

As I mentioned, only less than 1% of all cars right now on the road are plugins (PHEV+BEV) even with the rapid growth of sales the past few years, and that growth is already slowing down, even if only temporarily. Plus, that growth is VERY dependent on the political winds, which is an iffy thing to depend on.

I'll also point out that while 10% of NEW cars right now are plugins, there is also that other 90% of NEW cars that are pure ICE that will last a decade or more into the future...and that imbalance in buying will continue to push away parity into the future. The percent of total cars that are plugins will increment higher, but at a slow rate.

One can probably create a spreadsheet that simulates this change in percent over time.

Personally, I'm all for moving away from pure ICE and into various forms of alternative and cleaner forms of transportation, which is why I've moved on from ICE to HEV to PHEV.

 

I have to agree with you. People are transitioning (as far as new car sales are concerned) to Hybrid, PHEV or BEV, and that number is growing YoY

 

For the less than 1% of people that mod their cars I'm sure gas vehicles will always be for sale.
Is this really a reason EVs will never become majority of sales?

 

This is what I'm talking about. I'm not saying you are personally, but that statement is absolutely DELUSIONAL.

Just to even start, the top two selling vehicles in this country are trucks. How are EV trucks working out? Are people buying more Lightnings than regular gas F-150s? It it even remotely close? (no.)

Also, mannnnnnny people just flat don't prefer them, that's not a denigration I'm just saying. It's like food. I can't force you to like Brussel sprouts.

 

Equally delusional is stating that EVs will never grow to beyond 20% of new cars sold even after 40 years. That is just as crazy a statement as saying that ICEs are done in 5 years...they aren't.

But if all you had to eat was brussels sprouts you wouldn't choose to starve to death would you?

I also hated brussels sprouts and said I would never eat them, and now I don't mind them and will eat them if they are put in front of me.

 

Trucks are bought in fleets, have you ever considered that? My cousin who is in construction buys 30 at a time, companies like PGE buy them by the thousands. My Local uhaul has hundreds of brand new F-150 on their lot. I suspect that's why so many trucks are sold, adding on to the fact they are popular among a segment of the population.

You can ignore facts all you want. I've already said everything there is to say on this

 

I would have to be starving to eat brussel sprouts lol 😆. To death 🤣🤣

 

Only 1%????

I like both. I like to ride in silence in EV mode. Then there are times I like to hear the engine come to life.

Then you have people like my friend and random construction worker at church who say they would never own a BEV. They didn’t disclose why nor did I ask. Some people like what they like. A lot of people don’t like what they don’t know. I’ve gotten a lot of responses over the years random people think hybrids are like BEVs. The first question they ask about a hybrid is how often do you have to charge it followed by how do you charge it?

One of my other friends was at Toyota a dealership couple days ago looking at a hybrid and the EV button came up and the salesman told my friend “hopefully you will never need because if so you’re in trouble.” Basically the salesman told my friend the EV button is for when/if you run out of gas and you can drive on it for a short distance to try to make it to a gas station. Salesman with 15yrs of experience.

Another friend was cross shopping a NX 350 and a NX 350h. The salesman told my friend when the hybrid battery fails that’s a $5,000 repair. So my friend bought the non hybrid turbo 4 cylinder instead. I told my friend you should’ve asked him how much it cost to replace a turbo on that 4 cylinder.

So a lot of people are uninformed about BEVs. I came here thinking Tesla was the majority of BEVs and the other not so popular EVs out there were knockoffs. Boy was I wrong.

 

Here's the thing...the reason why most people say "I wont own an EV" or hate EVs is political, it has nothing to do with an EV vs ICE or preferring an ICE. Not everybody, but a lot of people.

 

That kind of talk is usually reserved for the finance manager, trying to push an extended warranty.

 

Never had brussels sprouts until about 10 years ago, assumed I would hate them. They're literally my favorite vegetable. There are three pounds in our crisper as I type this--mostly for my wife, who loves them even more than I do (and also never had them as a kid).

 

​​​​​​ Actually come to think of it, my wife once fried them in garlic where they were crispy, and I was able to eat them. Boiled, I can't, sorry 😔

It's not a vegetable we eat often here at home

 

No, but what's your point? Will I be forced into an EV eventually? ICEs aren't going anywhere.

Of course I've considered that. Remember my thread where I went to GMC and took pictures of $39k ridiculously practical work trucks to show how ridiculous an EV would be as a work truck? People actually think CTs will take over trucks, I've read it on these boards.

I think that's putting it very, very mildly. Americans lovvvvvvvvve nice 1500s.