General EV Conversation
Lead Lap
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,449
Likes: 604
From: SC
The AVERAGE age of a car on the road today is 12.5 years old. People are keeping cars longer, and that isn't conducive the EV ownership. It's not just about mileage with EVs. It's also about age. People really haven't seen that side of the EV equation yet because most EVs aren't old enough. But when they do, and if used batteries are still expensive, it won't bode well for EVs. And people that buy new all the time can say they don't care, but if resale values take a hit, it will hit lease prices too. That will make them more expensive and hurt sales, unless the gov comes in subsidizes them even more. Going to be interesting to see it play out.
Lead Lap
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,449
Likes: 604
From: SC
Remember, there is no "on" switch where suddenly there's nothing but EV'S. Assuming the trend continues for argument sake, the market will be full of ICE for years to come. They are not disappearing, I don't care what anyone says. By the time EV'S reach enough saturation, the battery issues, which I believe will be rare, will be worked out. Prices have dropped significantly the last 3 years.
I will say one thing with 100 surety... once people start driving them and living day to day with them, the majority won't even consider going back. That I can promise
I will say one thing with 100 surety... once people start driving them and living day to day with them, the majority won't even consider going back. That I can promise
Lead Lap
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,449
Likes: 604
From: SC
That's not what I'm saying. These batteries will die. If the mileage doesn't get them, age will. There is an expiration date. And it's a huge expense when they do. So huge, it basically makes the car a donate or throw away. I've seen it with some of the early model s that have hit that age. But since the volume for those cars is low, it's not really something that a lot of people are paying attention to yet. Let's see what happens a few years from now when some of the early model 3s start to get to the age where their batteries fail outside of warranty.
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 25,917
Likes: 4,274
From: Alberta
Maybe. But you can't assume the battery issues will be worked out. Like someone said to me not long ago, we can only go by how thing have been done, not how they can be done. Right now, the battery tech isn't even close to being to the point where the AVERAGE age of an EV on the road will be 12.5 years. That's end of life for most EVs because the battery replacement cost is so high. That's a significant change for the used car market and for owners as a whole.
That's not what I'm saying. These batteries will die. If the mileage doesn't get them, age will. There is an expiration date. And it's a huge expense when they do. So huge, it basically makes the car a donate or throw away. I've seen it with some of the early model s that have hit that age. But since the volume for those cars is low, it's not really something that a lot of people are paying attention to yet. Let's see what happens a few years from now when some of the early model 3s start to get to the age where their batteries fail outside of warranty.
Can't help but notice you provide zero data for anything you're claiming.
Lexus Champion
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 19,487
Likes: 3,672
From: California
That's not what I'm saying. These batteries will die. If the mileage doesn't get them, age will. There is an expiration date. And it's a huge expense when they do. So huge, it basically makes the car a donate or throw away. I've seen it with some of the early model s that have hit that age. But since the volume for those cars is low, it's not really something that a lot of people are paying attention to yet. Let's see what happens a few years from now when some of the early model 3s start to get to the age where their batteries fail outside of warranty.
Personally I'm not worried, especially when it comes to Tesla's. I've seen enough data, much of it posted here proving to me that batteries can handle more than 300k. The one off Tesla or driven a million miles with battery issues posted on YouTube to drive traffic are nothing but noise to me
Lead Lap
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,449
Likes: 604
From: SC
Lead Lap
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,449
Likes: 604
From: SC
You are making a lot of assumptions. And a lot of "what if's. EV'S have been around long enough to understand what could go wrong. And tons of people are buying used Tesla's here. Some as old as 2018.
Personally I'm not worried, especially when it comes to Tesla's. I've seen enough data, much of it posted here proving to me that batteries can handle more than 300k. The one off Tesla or driven a million miles with battery issues posted on YouTube to drive traffic are nothing but noise to me
Personally I'm not worried, especially when it comes to Tesla's. I've seen enough data, much of it posted here proving to me that batteries can handle more than 300k. The one off Tesla or driven a million miles with battery issues posted on YouTube to drive traffic are nothing but noise to me
Would you feel comfortable a 12.5 year old EV on the original battery with no warranty?
ClubLexus Stories
Celebrating Lexus & Toyota from Around the Globe
Top 10 Lexus & Toyotas to Drive Before You Die!
Joe Kucinski
Top 10 Lexus/Toyotas With The LEAST 5-Year Depreciation
Joe Kucinski
Lexus LC500 Convertible Auction: A Preview of Rising Values?
Brett Foote
GX 550 vs TX 550: Best 3-Row Luxury Lexus Family Hauler
Michael S. Palmer
9 Best Lexus Models You Can Buy for Half Price (And 1 You Shouldn't!)
Joe Kucinski
2026 Lexus NX Buyer's Guide: Models, Features, Prices & More!
Brett Foote
Top 10 Reasons to Buy a Lexus TX 550h+ (& 3 Reasons to AVOID!)
Michael S. Palmer
Top 10 Lexus & Toyota Models of the 1990s RANKED!
Joe Kucinski
10 Great Toyotas That Could Have Been Lexus Models
Joe Kucinski
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 25,917
Likes: 4,274
From: Alberta
Lexus Champion
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 19,487
Likes: 3,672
From: California
but if I knew I could change a battery pack for a decent price, I might consider it for one of my kids 
Lead Lap
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 3,958
Likes: 409
Lead Lap
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,449
Likes: 604
From: SC
Advanced
Joined: Feb 2024
Posts: 558
Likes: 130
From: NJ/FL
On the Prius, a vehicle that has been here for decades and sold millions in total, battery replacement costs are still around $1000, and this is for a pack that is 70x smaller than the huge batteries on BEVs.(only 1.3 kwh on these HEVs vs the 70+ kwh of BEVs)
Lexus Champion
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 19,487
Likes: 3,672
From: California
I have my doubts as well about battery replacement costs dropping that much.
On the Prius, a vehicle that has been here for decades and sold millions in total, battery replacement costs are still around $1000, and this is for a pack that is 70x smaller than the huge batteries on BEVs.(only 1.3 kwh on these HEVs vs the 70+ kwh of BEVs)
On the Prius, a vehicle that has been here for decades and sold millions in total, battery replacement costs are still around $1000, and this is for a pack that is 70x smaller than the huge batteries on BEVs.(only 1.3 kwh on these HEVs vs the 70+ kwh of BEVs)
Advanced
Joined: Feb 2024
Posts: 558
Likes: 130
From: NJ/FL
And that $1k is for the cheapest possible, normally I think it's still $1.5k to $2k....i really should start researching this as my own battery might need help soon.