The AVERAGE age of a car on the road today is 12.5 years old. People are keeping cars longer, and that isn't conducive the EV ownership. It's not just about mileage with EVs. It's also about age. People really haven't seen that side of the EV equation yet because most EVs aren't old enough. But when they do, and if used batteries are still expensive, it won't bode well for EVs. And people that buy new all the time can say they don't care, but if resale values take a hit, it will hit lease prices too. That will make them more expensive and hurt sales, unless the gov comes in subsidizes them even more. Going to be interesting to see it play out.

 

You're on one hand saying EVs have not been around long enough to gauge longevity and in other saying they won't age well. You can't have both.

 

Maybe. But you can't assume the battery issues will be worked out. Like someone said to me not long ago, we can only go by how thing have been done, not how they can be done. Right now, the battery tech isn't even close to being to the point where the AVERAGE age of an EV on the road will be 12.5 years. That's end of life for most EVs because the battery replacement cost is so high. That's a significant change for the used car market and for owners as a whole.

 

That's not what I'm saying. These batteries will die. If the mileage doesn't get them, age will. There is an expiration date. And it's a huge expense when they do. So huge, it basically makes the car a donate or throw away. I've seen it with some of the early model s that have hit that age. But since the volume for those cars is low, it's not really something that a lot of people are paying attention to yet. Let's see what happens a few years from now when some of the early model 3s start to get to the age where their batteries fail outside of warranty.

 

Indeed let's see what actually happens. You will be wrong, quote me.

Can't help but notice you provide zero data for anything you're claiming.

 

You are making a lot of assumptions. And a lot of "what if's. EV'S have been around long enough to understand what could go wrong. And tons of people are buying used Tesla's here. Some as old as 2018.

Personally I'm not worried, especially when it comes to Tesla's. I've seen enough data, much of it posted here proving to me that batteries can handle more than 300k. The one off Tesla or driven a million miles with battery issues posted on YouTube to drive traffic are nothing but noise to me

 

Quoted.

Would you buy a 12.5 year old EV on the original battery with no warranty?

 

2018 is 6 years old. The average, again average, age of a car on the road today is 12.5 years old. That's a big difference.

Would you feel comfortable a 12.5 year old EV on the original battery with no warranty?

 

Age doesn't matter much it is charge cycles which directly translates into miles. Still no data from you.

 

I wouldn't buy a 12.5 year old gas car either but if I knew I could change a battery pack for a decent price, I might consider it for one of my kids

 

I charge my car daily sometimes multiple times per day. Hopefully since my battery stays between 30%-90% prolongs the life of it.

 

I agree. I stated that if battery prices drop significantly, that would help and my scenario would likely not play out. But I don't see that happening. Even the low end estimates are likely much more than anybody would want to drop in an older car.

 

I have my doubts as well about battery replacement costs dropping that much.

On the Prius, a vehicle that has been here for decades and sold millions in total, battery replacement costs are still around $1000, and this is for a pack that is 70x smaller than the huge batteries on BEVs.(only 1.3 kwh on these HEVs vs the 70+ kwh of BEVs)

 

$1000 is cheap. It used to be $10k. My brother had his Sienna engine changed....$4k. I don't think any price would satisfy you guys quite frankly

 

My point is a battery that is 70x larger might not ever go to even $1k replacement cost in decades.

And that $1k is for the cheapest possible, normally I think it's still $1.5k to $2k....i really should start researching this as my own battery might need help soon.