Tesla Model S Plaid
EV ftw!!!
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 8,947
Likes: 546
From: Lake Ontario
On the contrary, I think this could be the beginning of the end. If you look at Tesla's advantage over other EV manufacturers, it's currently primarily in performance and range, and secondarily in self-driving as more of a brand-building novelty (i.e. not many will pick the Tesla over an e-tron due to self driving). At 2 seconds 0-60, how much farther can you still usefully push it? Going forward, how many people will buy a car because it can get to 60 in 1.8 seconds as opposed to 2? No matter how much they innovate in this aspect, they're already well past the point of diminishing returns. Another manufacturer can offer far inferior performance, say 3 seconds to 60, and still satisfy 99.999% of people's needs.
Similarly for range, going from 200 miles to 300 miles is a massive improvement. Going to 400 miles currently is nice, but again at a point of diminishing returns. In a few years, how many people will find 800 miles of range a worthwhile upgrade over 600 miles?
That's the 2 objectively measurable and the most important advantages Tesla has that will be irrelevant soon. Charging speed they don't have much of an advantage, and charging infrastructure is only an advantage in the US.
This really leaves just self-driving as the last "advantage". But how much of an advantage is it? People seem to think that just because there are many Teslas on the road collecting data, that they'd be king. But what's the quality of their data? In engineering there's a saying, garbage in, garbage out. If people avoid using Autopilot in difficult scenarios, ones that people know Teslas may have trouble with, can the data really allow much improvement?
We're nearing a point, probably within the next 5 years, where Tesla's market position will depend almost entirely on its self-driving tech. This will narrow their margin of error considerably. I'm not sure a quantitative advantage here (e.g. a better level 3 vs. a worse level 3) will be enough, they'll need a qualitative advantage (e.g. level 4 vs. level 3) to cement their market leader status, because their infotainment (rising importance these days, especially when self-driving becomes reality), build quality, and interior design can probably be at best a wash with other manufacturers as people begin to adopt Android for auto OS and Apple planning to enter the fray.
Similarly for range, going from 200 miles to 300 miles is a massive improvement. Going to 400 miles currently is nice, but again at a point of diminishing returns. In a few years, how many people will find 800 miles of range a worthwhile upgrade over 600 miles?
That's the 2 objectively measurable and the most important advantages Tesla has that will be irrelevant soon. Charging speed they don't have much of an advantage, and charging infrastructure is only an advantage in the US.
This really leaves just self-driving as the last "advantage". But how much of an advantage is it? People seem to think that just because there are many Teslas on the road collecting data, that they'd be king. But what's the quality of their data? In engineering there's a saying, garbage in, garbage out. If people avoid using Autopilot in difficult scenarios, ones that people know Teslas may have trouble with, can the data really allow much improvement?
We're nearing a point, probably within the next 5 years, where Tesla's market position will depend almost entirely on its self-driving tech. This will narrow their margin of error considerably. I'm not sure a quantitative advantage here (e.g. a better level 3 vs. a worse level 3) will be enough, they'll need a qualitative advantage (e.g. level 4 vs. level 3) to cement their market leader status, because their infotainment (rising importance these days, especially when self-driving becomes reality), build quality, and interior design can probably be at best a wash with other manufacturers as people begin to adopt Android for auto OS and Apple planning to enter the fray.
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 35,277
Likes: 305
From: ON/NY
Yet another very detailed treatise on the death of Tesla - similar to what tons of industry pundits and the public have been saying about Tesla for more than 10 years now. The old saying - if I could have a dollar for every instance someone said Tesla is going to be irrelevant soon,..........
Last edited by Toys4RJill; Jun 20, 2021 at 07:21 AM.
That's likely an overstatement, but i really enjoyed your post. 
i agree with you that tesla's "lead" advantages will diminish as more and more competition arrives. Lucid air could well eclipse the S in range. F150 Lightning could eclipse the Cybertruck in utility with 'good enough' range, and ID.4, Mach-E, Bolt EUV, Ioniq 5, etc. all starting to encroach on Model 3/Y.
doesn't spell the 'end' for Tesla at all though... if they currently have say 90% of u.s. EV market but that drops to 50% but the market quadruples in size, tesla's still growing.
I certainly agree with you the 2s 0-60 matters to almost no-one. I love cars but have no interest, AT ALL, in buying a car BECAUSE it can go 0-60 in 2s or less. I will definitely have an EV in the next few years. Will it be a tesla? I have no idea, but i'd say the odds are small.
What really grinds my gears is tesla is selling a $10,000 'upgrade' that provides VERY LITTLE for that today, mainly a promise of some future capabilities, and the much often promoted (by musk of course) 'robo-taxi' service so people can make money with their vehicles. I wonder what the take rate on that option is. Reminds me of the 'music man'.
Another wildcard is Apple. All signs indicate they're working on a car. ICar? If it happens, even if it isn't great, it will sell. Apple already has stores, infrastructure/cloud, branding, massive technology expertise, etc. people with iphones will like telling 'siri' in their car to do things. It will be interesting.
i agree with you that tesla's "lead" advantages will diminish as more and more competition arrives. Lucid air could well eclipse the S in range. F150 Lightning could eclipse the Cybertruck in utility with 'good enough' range, and ID.4, Mach-E, Bolt EUV, Ioniq 5, etc. all starting to encroach on Model 3/Y.
doesn't spell the 'end' for Tesla at all though... if they currently have say 90% of u.s. EV market but that drops to 50% but the market quadruples in size, tesla's still growing.
I certainly agree with you the 2s 0-60 matters to almost no-one. I love cars but have no interest, AT ALL, in buying a car BECAUSE it can go 0-60 in 2s or less. I will definitely have an EV in the next few years. Will it be a tesla? I have no idea, but i'd say the odds are small.
We're nearing a point, probably within the next 5 years, where Tesla's market position will depend almost entirely on its self-driving tech.
Another wildcard is Apple. All signs indicate they're working on a car. ICar? If it happens, even if it isn't great, it will sell. Apple already has stores, infrastructure/cloud, branding, massive technology expertise, etc. people with iphones will like telling 'siri' in their car to do things. It will be interesting.
Thread Starter
Lexus Test Driver
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 7,460
Likes: 232
From: CA
Originally Posted by dingyibvs
On the contrary, I think this could be the beginning of the end. If you look at Tesla's advantage over other EV manufacturers, it's currently primarily in performance and range, and secondarily in self-driving as more of a brand-building novelty (i.e. not many will pick the Tesla over an e-tron due to self driving). At 2 seconds 0-60, how much farther can you still usefully push it? Going forward, how many people will buy a car because it can get to 60 in 1.8 seconds as opposed to 2? No matter how much they innovate in this aspect, they're already well past the point of diminishing returns. Another manufacturer can offer far inferior performance, say 3 seconds to 60, and still satisfy 99.999% of people's needs.
Similarly for range, going from 200 miles to 300 miles is a massive improvement. Going to 400 miles currently is nice, but again at a point of diminishing returns. In a few years, how many people will find 800 miles of range a worthwhile upgrade over 600 miles?
That's the 2 objectively measurable and the most important advantages Tesla has that will be irrelevant soon. Charging speed they don't have much of an advantage, and charging infrastructure is only an advantage in the US.
This really leaves just self-driving as the last "advantage". But how much of an advantage is it? People seem to think that just because there are many Teslas on the road collecting data, that they'd be king. But what's the quality of their data? In engineering there's a saying, garbage in, garbage out. If people avoid using Autopilot in difficult scenarios, ones that people know Teslas may have trouble with, can the data really allow much improvement?
We're nearing a point, probably within the next 5 years, where Tesla's market position will depend almost entirely on its self-driving tech. This will narrow their margin of error considerably. I'm not sure a quantitative advantage here (e.g. a better level 3 vs. a worse level 3) will be enough, they'll need a qualitative advantage (e.g. level 4 vs. level 3) to cement their market leader status, because their infotainment (rising importance these days, especially when self-driving becomes reality), build quality, and interior design can probably be at best a wash with other manufacturers as people begin to adopt Android for auto OS and Apple planning to enter the fray.
Similarly for range, going from 200 miles to 300 miles is a massive improvement. Going to 400 miles currently is nice, but again at a point of diminishing returns. In a few years, how many people will find 800 miles of range a worthwhile upgrade over 600 miles?
That's the 2 objectively measurable and the most important advantages Tesla has that will be irrelevant soon. Charging speed they don't have much of an advantage, and charging infrastructure is only an advantage in the US.
This really leaves just self-driving as the last "advantage". But how much of an advantage is it? People seem to think that just because there are many Teslas on the road collecting data, that they'd be king. But what's the quality of their data? In engineering there's a saying, garbage in, garbage out. If people avoid using Autopilot in difficult scenarios, ones that people know Teslas may have trouble with, can the data really allow much improvement?
We're nearing a point, probably within the next 5 years, where Tesla's market position will depend almost entirely on its self-driving tech. This will narrow their margin of error considerably. I'm not sure a quantitative advantage here (e.g. a better level 3 vs. a worse level 3) will be enough, they'll need a qualitative advantage (e.g. level 4 vs. level 3) to cement their market leader status, because their infotainment (rising importance these days, especially when self-driving becomes reality), build quality, and interior design can probably be at best a wash with other manufacturers as people begin to adopt Android for auto OS and Apple planning to enter the fray.
How much mindshare does Tesla have with the younger generation such as millennials? On most polls, it's a more desirable brand than BMW. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tesla surpasses Lexus in sales in the next 10 years as right now, it's supply constrained. Next 2 years will be multiple factory openings to meet demand. Tesla isn't going anywhere and yes, market share will decline as they have the lion share now but that doesn't matter in the least. Their sales will grow significantly in a significantly bigger market as ICE switches to EV.
I'd be curious on what the actual usage statistics on autopilot actually is. Almost no one uses it for city driving and I only use it on rare occasions like road trips or opening up a water bottle where I need both hands for a couple seconds.
I think self driving gets way more publicity due to a very vocal minority that loves the technology but most Tesla owners I know don't use it that often.
EV ftw!!!
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 8,947
Likes: 546
From: Lake Ontario
He definitely made that very clear. You're also of the same opinion and have stated as much in multiple posts.......
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 35,277
Likes: 305
From: ON/NY
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 25,911
Likes: 4,269
From: Alberta
On the contrary, I think this could be the beginning of the end. If you look at Tesla's advantage over other EV manufacturers, it's currently primarily in performance and range, and secondarily in self-driving as more of a brand-building novelty (i.e. not many will pick the Tesla over an e-tron due to self driving). At 2 seconds 0-60, how much farther can you still usefully push it? Going forward, how many people will buy a car because it can get to 60 in 1.8 seconds as opposed to 2? No matter how much they innovate in this aspect, they're already well past the point of diminishing returns. Another manufacturer can offer far inferior performance, say 3 seconds to 60, and still satisfy 99.999% of people's needs.
Similarly for range, going from 200 miles to 300 miles is a massive improvement. Going to 400 miles currently is nice, but again at a point of diminishing returns. In a few years, how many people will find 800 miles of range a worthwhile upgrade over 600 miles?
That's the 2 objectively measurable and the most important advantages Tesla has that will be irrelevant soon. Charging speed they don't have much of an advantage, and charging infrastructure is only an advantage in the US.
This really leaves just self-driving as the last "advantage". But how much of an advantage is it? People seem to think that just because there are many Teslas on the road collecting data, that they'd be king. But what's the quality of their data? In engineering there's a saying, garbage in, garbage out. If people avoid using Autopilot in difficult scenarios, ones that people know Teslas may have trouble with, can the data really allow much improvement?
We're nearing a point, probably within the next 5 years, where Tesla's market position will depend almost entirely on its self-driving tech. This will narrow their margin of error considerably. I'm not sure a quantitative advantage here (e.g. a better level 3 vs. a worse level 3) will be enough, they'll need a qualitative advantage (e.g. level 4 vs. level 3) to cement their market leader status, because their infotainment (rising importance these days, especially when self-driving becomes reality), build quality, and interior design can probably be at best a wash with other manufacturers as people begin to adopt Android for auto OS and Apple planning to enter the fray.
Similarly for range, going from 200 miles to 300 miles is a massive improvement. Going to 400 miles currently is nice, but again at a point of diminishing returns. In a few years, how many people will find 800 miles of range a worthwhile upgrade over 600 miles?
That's the 2 objectively measurable and the most important advantages Tesla has that will be irrelevant soon. Charging speed they don't have much of an advantage, and charging infrastructure is only an advantage in the US.
This really leaves just self-driving as the last "advantage". But how much of an advantage is it? People seem to think that just because there are many Teslas on the road collecting data, that they'd be king. But what's the quality of their data? In engineering there's a saying, garbage in, garbage out. If people avoid using Autopilot in difficult scenarios, ones that people know Teslas may have trouble with, can the data really allow much improvement?
We're nearing a point, probably within the next 5 years, where Tesla's market position will depend almost entirely on its self-driving tech. This will narrow their margin of error considerably. I'm not sure a quantitative advantage here (e.g. a better level 3 vs. a worse level 3) will be enough, they'll need a qualitative advantage (e.g. level 4 vs. level 3) to cement their market leader status, because their infotainment (rising importance these days, especially when self-driving becomes reality), build quality, and interior design can probably be at best a wash with other manufacturers as people begin to adopt Android for auto OS and Apple planning to enter the fray.
Yet another very detailed treatise on the death of Tesla - similar to what tons of industry pundits and the public have been saying about Tesla for more than 10 years now. The old saying - if I could have a dollar for every instance someone said Tesla is going to be irrelevant soon,..........
Lead Lap
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 3,872
Likes: 1,476
From: San Diego, CA
Much more money has been made by betting on Tesla, not against them.
And the diatribe above didn’t really touch on Tesla’s biggest assets, its software development prowess and its ability to innovate. Tesla is absolutely as much a technology company as a car company, and innovations like the new motor in the Plaid are what will keep Tesla in a market leading position in a market which is growing and will, at some point, become the mainstream, one day replacing ICE.
As for “who needs a 2 second car” argument, that’s fundamentally flawed from the get go when it is made by anyone with more car than they need. Which is literally everyone here who doesn’t drive the smallest, slowest, cheapest, most economical, simplest, least advanced, lightest, lowest cost of ownership vehicle that meets their minimum reasonable need.
In other words, every single one of us.
And also anyone who has never experienced a top end Tesla under maximum acceleration, because it is absolutely @&%#ing intoxicating.
And the diatribe above didn’t really touch on Tesla’s biggest assets, its software development prowess and its ability to innovate. Tesla is absolutely as much a technology company as a car company, and innovations like the new motor in the Plaid are what will keep Tesla in a market leading position in a market which is growing and will, at some point, become the mainstream, one day replacing ICE.
As for “who needs a 2 second car” argument, that’s fundamentally flawed from the get go when it is made by anyone with more car than they need. Which is literally everyone here who doesn’t drive the smallest, slowest, cheapest, most economical, simplest, least advanced, lightest, lowest cost of ownership vehicle that meets their minimum reasonable need.
In other words, every single one of us.
And also anyone who has never experienced a top end Tesla under maximum acceleration, because it is absolutely @&%#ing intoxicating.
Pole Position
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 2,082
Likes: 633
From: CA
Are Teslas fun? Well, we bought our Model 3 Mid Range RWD in Dec 2018. Take someone for a ride and give it a little throttle... Your rider will say, "Wow! Is this the fast one?" I reply, "No, this is the slow one..."
Yhe "right now" torque likely makes the car feel faster than it is, but is intoxicating in every day driving. So useful!
Yhe "right now" torque likely makes the car feel faster than it is, but is intoxicating in every day driving. So useful!
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 25,911
Likes: 4,269
From: Alberta
When is any auto maker coming out with competition for the above? Tesla solar has been out for years but you probably didn't know that, up until a few weeks ago you didn't even know Tesla uses a version of the 18650 cell that put things in perspective for me.
up until a few weeks ago you didn't even know Tesla uses a version of the 18650 cell that put things in perspective for me.
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 25,911
Likes: 4,269
From: Alberta
Why do you have to make it personal? Unlike you i don't worship at the altar of every detail of everything tesla does. And you don't even drive one. LOL
As for owning a Tesla I've already explained why I don't. Have you ever driven one?
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 35,277
Likes: 305
From: ON/NY
In all honesty, maybe never. I don’t think a battery car cost can get that low. It will be heavy too. Battery cars are expensive to manufacture Last edited by Toys4RJill; Jun 20, 2021 at 08:38 PM.