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It's impossible to say what the correct interval is if you don't analyze the used oil. If you use the recommended interval, you won't go wrong unless you drive very short distances and never get the oil to temperature (3 bars on the oil temp gauge), if this is typical for you then you might need shorter than 5k changes.
So, the easy thing to do is change it at the recommended intervals (5k). I consider all the risks, and have my oil analyzed so I know with great certainty what is reasonable for my driving patterns. As always, YMMV depending on how you use the car.