You are very correct about this. Lexus ES deals will likely to be very appealing once the 2nd model year rolls around. Its pretty much true for any car.

I think with the SUV craze going on in the States, the inventory of of sedans, such as the ES/IS, will be in good stock no matter what. (Unless you are talking about extremely rare colors). I have this weird feeling majority of the new ES will be stocked in White. Lexus seems to like to push the color white as their bread and butter color almost. Well - it feels like that in my area anyways. Majority of the Lexus vehicles at my local dealer is mainly white and my dealer is a high inventory dealer.

 

Try $200 more a month

 

I've never seen any ES lease for that much. Maybe it's regional. We've always had them base in the $300-450 range, even when a new body debuts.

 

You are right about white being one of the most common colors. Gray and black will be the others, with silver somewhere in the middle. The rest are all kind of the oddball ones. This pretty much mimics the color preference across the board in this segment.

 

 

If there is no down payment and one starts adding many options and extra miles, yes... things can start ballooning. From what I researched for SoCal, most are putting $2-4k down in this segment. The base ES lease car here in CA has some basic options, but no nav. Miles have been 10k/yr for quite a while. Average take rate for miles is 10-12k/yr. Many dealers will forgive some over-mileage if customer sticks with the dealership for next transaction.

I don't think Lexus's current ES lease is that far out of reach for the average customer. And with stiff in-house competition and a little negotiating, one can knock those numbers down even further. The regional program is what Lexus is suggesting dealers go by, but they are free to compete with each other to gain more sales. Adding nav would maybe increase the monthly payment $30-50/mo. and then one could have a pleasantly equipped luxury sedan.

For reference, the regional lease program for my IS in 2008 was $299/mo. with $3k down. I emailed around for the color and extra options I wanted and settled with the $299/down plus tax, and a straight $3k down with no added tax or fees on a $2k more expensive car. Having a dozen Lexus dealerships near where you live has it's benefits.

 

 

Definitely true. I have noticed that as well. My local NorCal (Bay Area) dealers stock mostly white with gray and black following. I think I noticed gray more than black.

The blue and red color is definitely an odd ball for me. Never seen one in person or at dealers yet.

Excuse my ignorance with leases. I never really understood it fully.
I have always just bought and resold cars.

So if a customers wants to lease a 2019 Lexus ES with Ultra Luxury Pack, that would be possible right? They just have to find the car first? Would then that said lease be more expensive than the deals they are advertising?

 

The lease deals that are advertised are for base cars or cars with only minor options. You will not see any advertised prices for one with the UL pack. And yes, the UL pack would bump up the price considerably. It should take a good 6-12 months for the bargains to start after the new model debuts.

 

 

The ES is a very appealing car to many. We went to an older brother of a wife's bff last weekend. The house was a pseudo mansion, and when the garage door went up, what was inside? A Lexus ES (late model), and two old Toyota pickups. I remember a couple of years ago a friend was getting a divorce and was fire sale'ing her S550, so we asked him and right away he said he doesn't like to spend much on repairs. At the time he had an old Volvo S80 (like 16 y.o.).

I'll be the first to admit, I was able to leave that show at Citi Field thinking the new ES was an LS (the one my wife and son got a demo of the sound system), so it must bear a striking resemblance to the new LS, or, I'm an idiot. maybe both are true lol

 

imho it depends on disposable income and assumptions. If a person says, "I like new cars and would never consider driving one more than 35.99999 mos. old," that's a difficult assumption to work with. To exaggerate it, it would be like saying, I like moving from a newly constructed house every 10 years, no exceptions. I would say without all the assumptions laid out, there is a likelihood it makes sense to rent. So there are cases it makes sense to rent a car as well, as opposed to buy.

haha is that in Chantilly, we were there last weekend and went to the Air and Space both in DC and VA. Dunno why in that entire area, I see to like MD along the 270 side.

I once dealt with a vendor in Manassas--so for the secuirty questions, it would say, What is your favorite vacation place? Manassas Who is your favorite actor? Robert Manassas What is your favorite sports team? Manassas Capitals. We passed through that place too and it looked tired.

 

Yes, that's the Chantilly dealership....one of only two in the Northern Virginia D.C. suburbs. The other one is Lindsay Lexus in Alexandria. Maryland also has a couple on their side of the river.....Lexus of Rockville and Lexus of Silver Spring.

How did you like the museum? I was once a volunteer worker and Tour Guide at the D.C. branch on weekends, and was a licensed pilot and Ground Instructor (my regular job was with the FAA).

 

Both are awesome, we seem to like VA better. But, we found $5/day garage parking (1300 D SW) near the Mall, using parkwhiz, so that wasn't a problem. The Hazy Museum is $15, but that's ok too as it's so laid back and we just think of it as an admission charge.

My hats are off to the volunteers, what a great way to be involved with what you're interested in, and share your passion with visitors? People are clearly "into it."

The ES has gotten me more curious, I've always thought of it as a rebadged Camry (people here have corrected me on that lol)....

 

Thats different, thats a one pay lease not putting a downpayment on a monthly pay lease. I wouldn't do a one pay lease either since the discount isn't worth tying the capital up.

Nobody recommends putting a downpayment on a monthly pay lease, do some reading. Lets put it this way, if you rented an apartment would you give them a big downpayment to make the monthly rent less? No.