You thought correctly..

 

That assumes that an LS-F/LC-F would be putting down enough power to necessitate the AWD.

 

Anything more powerful than the LC500 should necessitate AWD.

 

 

I am sure that there will be a new engine for the ES within the next year or two, probably before that expected 3-year, mid-cycle facelift.

Toyota has introduced some new TNGA engines -- the 2.0-litre engine in the new Corolla, the 2.5-litre regular engine in the Camry, the 2.5-litre hybrid in the Camry and ES, and the 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6 in the LS -- but it is missing an engine between the 2.5-litre 4-cylinder and the 3.5-litre TT V6.

We don't know yet if this in-between engine will be a turbocharged 4-cylinder or a naturally-aspirated V6, but following in the footsteps of the 2.5-litre Dynamic Force engine, we can expect it to be both incredibly fuel efficient and more powerful than the engine it replaces. It would be perfect for the ES, and the new, upcoming RX, Highlander and Sienna.

 

Pansies - the M5 didn't need AWD until it hit 600hp this gen

Sorry getting off topic. The ES is really growing on me, but it's not something I'd give up my GS for

 

Wouldn't the 302hp 3.5L V6 in the new ES350 be the in-between TNGA engine you're talking about?

 

Yeah there's no denying this won't be a hot seller.

I think my perspective can be shared with GS customers. If Lexus tried to make this new ES fill the gap with the likely discontinued GS then they have come up short. The GS has much nicer styling with traditional RWD proportions, AWD availability, and a much more luxurious cabin. Basically, it is the Japanese 5-series/A6/E-class. The ES will never be that and was never meant to be that.

 

There's still hope that Lexus has near-term plans for the GS, since the next generation of its long-time sister, the Toyota Crown, is to be officially released on 6/25 with the GA-L as its new platform.

 

 

 

From the generation of the XV10 Camry and 2G ES onward till now, the Camry/ES only had 1 middle-life cycle changes. It wasn't many many many times.
This change happened in the XV30 Camry and 4G ES. The only reason this happened was because they were changing out the older 1MZ engine. The 1MZ engine came from the previous generation (XV20 Camry/3G ES) and because the newer (XV30/4G ES) was introduced with the older 1MZ engine - it only make sense they do a middle-life cycle engine update. Similar to the IS - the Lexus IS250 engine for 3G IS came from the previous generation.
If you look at the other models of the Camry/ES, there was no middle-life cycle engine updates if the engines are newly introduced for the generation.

The current 7G ES, XX50 Camry, and Avalon all have the new 2GR-FKS engine introduced this year to them. Its not an engine from the earlier generation. Chances are - this engine will last till the end of the 7ES life-cycle.

Based on my opinion, like I suggested earlier - adding a new engine to go along with the 2GR-FKS will cause pricing conflict with the Lexus IS. A new 2.5 Engine under the ES350 (V6) will have to price above the IS and below the V6 ES. That's only a 1.7K price gap. They have to take consideration of letting the Lexus IS price grow too. So assuming the 2.5 engine under the ES350 V6 will start at $850 less than the V6 - it'll be a sales problem. No one would buy a ES 2.5 when there is a ES350 V6 for $850 more. Dealers will never push it.

The only way for a new engine to exist - is if they replace the 2GR-FKS and I don't think they will.

Sure - the 2GR might end soon or it might not. The MZ engine lasted 22 years before stopping its run. Japanese car manufacturers are super slow with engine changes. Just because the V35A is out doesn't mean the 2GR is going away. I think it could be at least several more years of them running together before the 2GR is completely phased out because the V35A has to trickle down and it'll take them a long time to trickle it down.

I might be the odd person out here - but I don't think the Lexus ES will get an engine change till 8G. Considering the 2GR-FKS is a new engine for the Camry, Avalon, and ES. Also - changing the engine out of the V6 to a Turbo engine will be a mistake within just a year or two. That means - Toyota has to change out 3 engines within 1-2 year time after marketing the 30+HP increase compared to the older model. The only way I could see a new engine change for the Camry/Avalon/ES is if the Camry/Avalon/ES kept the old 2GR-FE engine.

Secondly - a new engine, such as a Turbo or a more powerful engine plus AWD, will be welcomed by car enthusiasts. I don't think the masses that make the ES a sales champion will even care. Toyota is pretty stubborn with changes so its unlikely anything will change considering the ES is such a cash cow.

Side note: The only way we will know if the ES gets a change is if the Camry/Avalon changes first. The ES is always based and following the Camry/Avalon.

 

That's basically what Lincoln did on the ES's rival MKZ, although Lincoln kept the twin-turbo V6 option for the speed freaks. Besides iffy build-quality, one of the reasons I ultimately turned down the MKZ (I had seriously considered one) was its lack of a normally-aspirated V6.

Manufacturers can get carried away, though, with these 2.0Ts. When you start to see them in luxury sedans like the Cadillac CT6 and Audi A6, that, IMO, is where you have an image-problem LOL. Caddy apparently agrees...they dropped the 2.0T on the CT6.

The Trump Administration wants to rescind the Obama-era CAFE standards (I agree). If they are successful, it may put a damper on this craze to substitute turbo fours for N/A V6s.

 

The 2GR-FKS is a new engine for the Camry, Avalon and ES, but it is not a brand new engine. It was first introduced in this form in 2016 but it is built upon the 2GR block first introduced in 2004, it is NOT a super-efficient TNGA engine, like the A25A 2.5-litre 4-cylinder used in the Camry and ES Hybrid.

As more vehicles are switched over to the new TNGA platforms (Highlander, Sienna, RX, NX and IS, and others still to come) and more TNGA engines and transmissions are introduced, I do not expect Toyota to keep building the old GR (V6), AR (4-cylinder), UR (V8) and other xR engines anymore. Unless the full TNGA engine lineup is delayed past 6 or 7 years (i.e. the full cycle of this new ES), I expect the ES, Avalon and Camry to use all TNGA engines before the end of their current cycle.

Note that the 2.0-litre turbocharged 4-cylinder used in the NX and IS is NOT a TNGA engine; I expect it to be replaced in due course, probably when the new NX is introduced.

 

it is going to be 2.5t in Japan, so worldwide too, i wonder if it is with AWD... BUT, I doubt this will change V6 in NA market, does not make sense, people dont want 4cly turbo.

For users in other countries, lots less taxes with 2.5t vs V6.