Tesla is overvalued with no net positive cash flows, so the name of the game for this company's investment is to hedge your bets and speculate as fast as you can. Operation-wise, I do not think it is sustainable nor ideal. You simply cannot undersell yourself by moving the bottom line costs elsewhere and expect the thin aboveboard margins to eventually settle your shifted debts. At their current selling prices, Tesla is running a red marathon that will eventually catch up with them.

 

 

Every Tesla thread turns into a doom and gloom hate fest, why is that?

 

This couldn't be any more accurate! And then you have people say "they're rich, they drive a Tesla." Yeah, no.

 

Musk is a polarizing figure and people take it out on Tesla

 

Polarizing is one thing but the vitriol and outright cheering for Tesla to fail is something I don't get. Only think I can think of is some people feel threatened by Tesla, or more specifically feel like their favourite brand is threatened so they want Tesla to go out of business.

The truth is the auto industry is incredibly competitive and certainly doesn't welcome new players. Combine that with the fact that Tesla is the first all electric auto company (that sold in any volume) and it's a miracle Tesla survived this long.

 

Visit any Apple vs Android threads

But I agree, you'd think we'd welcome more competition in the market especially when it's based in the US. Regardless of whether or not Tesla survives, the fact that they've been able to push automakers into offering their own EV options is going to be their lasting legacy.

 

I don't think it's even that... Teslas have this kind of early 2000's Prius-chic to them. "Ooh, Teslas are cool" is more of the gist of what I hear. However, the S and X especially do carry some of the prestige that you are talking about. They ain't cheap. But the beauty of the 3 is that someone on a $50,000 budget could pick one up easily in theory. Hence the commonplace Model 3.

Heck my work parking lot here in KC is started to get saturated with them, and we're not exactly the tech capital of the country. Perhaps of the Midwest... but far from big.

 

Don't confuse a visionary for a business man. I'm not sure how anyone can question Musk being a visionary - but you have every right to say he isn't a savvy CFO or CEO type from an operations and financial perspective. The federal tax credits are not "soon" disappearing - they are soon diminishing and in 18-24 months will disappear. Tesla is a brand and that means they evoke emotion and loyalty - so people interested in Tesla may not care if Jaguar has a car that's $25k less. I don't care if a smart phone is 1/2 the price of an iPhone - I want an iPhone. People prepared to drop $125k on an SUV may not care about a $25k savings - especially with a brand like Jaguar with a very shaky past in reliability (you have to own 2 Jaguars- one to drive while the other is in the shop) venturing into electric vehicles for the first time. Plus, Tesla has first mover advantage in the market of evoking emotion and creating loyalty and interest.

Musk re-defined the performance, styling, and overall perception of electric vehicles with Tesla. EV's went from looking like an old Prius to being incredibly stylish and out-performing Bugatti's and any other production car in performance at a fraction of the price. He's drilling underground tunnels for mass transportation in pressurized cabins at up to 600 mph, building solar roof tiles that look like a normal roof and has an infinite warranty, developed the Powerwall, is helping in space exploration with a private company pushing the limits of what anyone thought was feasible, has plans to colonize Mars, and now about to propose his plan to create the link to allow us to "hook" our brains to computers. Oh, and before all of that he wanted to completely re-design the payment model (his time at PayPal was preceded by another company to allow money to be sent using infrared light across the most popular "smart phone" of the time- the Palm Treo). Think of how easily you send money now via PayPal and Venmo. Musk was doing that 15 years ago. I'm not sure how you look at that combination of things and say someone isn't a visionary.

 

All these ideas you mentioned I read about them in an encyclopedia-formatted books for children in the 1990's. Space exploration/Mars colonization was conceived long before the era of Musk, so that's not new. Solar powered panels are still not viable because we have no capacitor or battery to store the energy, so that is not really groundbreaking. Underground transportation going up to 600 MPH? Perhaps someone should finish the proposed Hyperloop tech and mainstream that before considering this tech. Neuralink? You mean Brain-Computer Interface? A medical tech that already exists?

I think most people should read more before putting others on a pedestal.

 

I saw flying cars on the Jetson's growing up as a kid- so does that mean I should discredit the person who ultimately comes up with the technology to make those a reality as not being a visionary? Tesla's solar powered panels link directly to the PowerWall. Very viable. And totally ground breaking when you look at the design of the panels and their durability backed by an infinite warranty. And Neuralink is not the same as Brain-Computer interface.

I'm well-read on Musk and also the book "Singuarity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil that I read in 2008. One of the most difficult and sophisticated books I can ever remember reading but well worth it. Read that and you'll understand Musk's concerns that he has voiced to senior US leaders about the danger of AI, then connect the dots of where Neuralink is going.

Musk has already disrupted the auto industry. Also space. Next mass transportation and potentially human space travel. You don't often see a single person disrupt so many completely different sectors. He's a visionary in my book.

 

"I saw something in a science fiction movie so the real thing is not impressive to me"

Sharks have been jumped.

 

just because space/mars colonization was conceived long before musk doesn't mean what he's doing isn't impressive. just because anyone can conceptually grasp an idea doesn't make it reality. doing the engineering, testing, fund-raising, managing, etc. is HARD.
solar panels are not viable? since there's millions in use i guess you're just not looking. even if the power isn't always 'stored' it doesn't mean it's not groundbreaking. and the powerwall IS groundbreaking. again, we can all conceive of or know about batteries, but why has no-one before musk made a nicely packaged one for homes?
re: "Perhaps someone should finish the proposed Hyperloop tech and mainstream that before considering this tech" - doesn't make any sense, SOMETHING has to be made to gain experience in it in practice, get better, etc. that's how progress comes about. he's actually doing it. what are you doing?
re: brain-computer interfaces, clearly many companies have had some breakthroughs and there's lots of work going on in the area, but there's no consumer products or mass deployment of anything affordable or useful. i expect that's what musk is up to.

your argument is like saying if someone implements a space elevator it will be no big deal because it was in sci-fi books more than half a century ago. it will be a HUGE deal.

 

I think it's a common human characteristic to want to be "different." And certainly some folks want to think of themselves as being on what they consider to be the "leading edge" of history. But to their contemporaries those folks are just craving attention in their devotion to trendiness.

Suppose home-style magazines suddenly sport homes with dark-green sides and bright-white window trim. Pretty soon homes in my upscale neighborhood start showing dark-green walls and white window trim. Then more and more homes use the color scheme. If I don't, am I clueless or do I just think the houses look ridiculous? And is there any doubt that ten years on, there will be a new fashion trend that shows dark-green houses as out of touch, just as burnt-orange **** carpet is to us today?

So are we currently in a trend where ICE's are bad and old-fashioned while EVs are cool and noble? Looks that way. Is it a fad or an inflection point?

By the way, when Tesla's tax credit gets chopped, would the company be able to build cars for other automakers to re-badge and thus get the full credit again?

 

And I will definitely not be impressed if someone travels through time. Been hearing about that for decades.