Amazon started in 1994 and turned public in 1997. It was profitable in 2001. Tesla started in 2003. Their worst year was 2017, their 14th year with a loss of 1.96 billion. Their next worst loss was their 15th year 2018 with a loss of 1.1 billion. So far this year they have lost 1.1 billion. They have never come close to making a profit in 16 years. Comparing Tesla with Amazon is truly the apples to oranges.

 

But Elon smoked dope on Youtube, that's much worse right?
Downward spiral? How do you know that?
For example? He said Tesla would never make it to 2019, the business model was broken and unsustainable etc. etc. the only positive thing I've heard him say is he saw a Model 3 in person and was blown away by the fit and finish and paint quality.
When do you predict they will go under.
Stock price is largely irrelevant unless you hold shares, as for warranty work how much does Tesla spend compared to other auto makers? Or are you making a guess.

 

I understand your position but Tesla making profit and their dealer business model are separate events. They do make make profit selling directly. They lose profit building out their infra and factories. Once their buildout is complete, they will be profitable unless they decide to invest in something else we haven't forecasted.

 

I'll let the mods decide, but seems to me like we've gotten off-topic, from individual BEV owners' electric-recharging bills to Tesla's own financial state.

 

I suggest changing the thread title to General Tesla Discussion or something along those lines.

 

• The S&P is up +20.7% ytd and Tesla stock is down -31.48%. They have been in business 16 years and their three worst losses will be their last three. Their 14th year (2017) was the their worst loss of 1.96 billion with a B. Their 15th year (2018) they only lost 1.1 billion. Their 16th year 2019, the first quarter loss was 702 million followed by a 408 million loss for the second quarter. It gets worse. The tax credit goes from $1,875 to 0 on 1/1/2020. Musk proves that even with record sales they are still losing money. Audi and Mercedes will be coming out in a couple of months with full electric SUV that will be less expensive then the Model X, more dependable, better looking and a full $7,500 tax credit. Consumer Reports ranks Tesla 27th out of 29th in reliability. Two of their three models they do not recommend. They stated the top 10 dogs to avoid and the Model X was #1. The Model S has the highest insurance of any vehicle. Tesla sells 40% of their vehicles in California. The Model S sales have plummeted 54% in California from the first quarter of this year to the second. This week their chief of technology left. Analyst called him second in command. In January their CFO left. Their chief of engineering left in 2018. Musk has almost lost recently his executive team. Musk is the captain of the Titanic.

 

I'm not saying Tesla is gonna win the auto world but stop people really need to stop with the negative propaganda. Their earnings losses are related to their capex expansion in recent years and their Model S/X will be more niche as the Model Y and 3 dominate their sales mix. Their CTO left but his second in command is taking over and reputed to be just as brilliant. They are in a stable financial position and their stock is down because they have always been overpriced. Currently, they are as valuable as Ford and they are a startup relatively. Their stock being overpriced doesn't mean bankruptcy. It just means the market expectations have always been too high for them.

 

This pretty much sums it all for me on the part of making money and the buying direct. I get there are people out there who bought Telsa models and are happy. We really like the cars. We like the stores. However, I just don't see how the profit and store set up will possibly work long term.

 

I'm convinced some people will never be happy until Tesla goes under the amount of FUD and general negativity tossed at the company is unprecedented. It even extends to the tech press and investors in general. What this tells me is Tesla is a massive threat to the established brands.

 

It's the uninformed that are susceptible to the FUD. The vast majority of the public doesn't understand stock valuation and company financials.

People need to read articles around how the company is performing from a financial perspective.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershsh.../#25e1df056974

Tesla isn't going anywhere soon so if people like the car, they shouldn't be afraid to get it.

 

The last sentence is incorrect because they don’t have dealers in any traditional sense.

Don’t get the logic by which you came up with the last sentence conclusion. Third party dealers have to make money to stay in business. They do that, as you know, with sales and service revenues exceeding their operating costs. Consumers pay all that. Manufacturer’s define msrp’s which are basically pointless, defined by a margin over invoice price, but dealers must also finance their on the lot inventory (floorplanning) and the longer a vehicle sits on the lot, the more it costs the dealer and the more incentive they have to get the car off the lot. it’s a horrible business model. the used car business is actually way more profitable than new, and of course dealers make most of their money on service, including warranty work.

Electric cars ruin the model... there’s little to no service revenue, dealers can and do make money on new (non-tesla) electric vehicles with the usual shell game or mark it up only to mark it down... bottom line, there’s no chance cars would be cheaper through third party dealers especially since there’s no service revenue.

 

No, it made money ($5M, or nothing) in the 4th quarter of 2001. It lost money in some quarters after that, but was generally profitable, probably to keep wall st. happy.





pretty much, it’s amazing to me tsla stock is still worth more than $5 with so much red ink, but obviously have concluded it’s a disrupter that will eventually make a lot of money. the stock is, of course, very volatile. I was in it for a while, sold, miraculously at $325, and have stayed out since. But tesla IS disrupting the car business, despite ENORMOUS obstacles and an erratic ceo, who i believe should not be ceo (he could well stay, maybe at cto or something), although lately he’s been more ‘sensible’ in his comments (i guess he doesn’t want more of the taste of sec fines in his mouth, lol).

 

That was actually a good article (rare for forbes ). Thanks.

this part is worth noting:

 

Trying to separate the FUD from what's really going on. I'm tired of people who don't understand finance say spread things like "bankruptcy" without actually evaluating the financial performance of the company. Reminds me of the days when Apple released the iPhone and it started taking off. Stupid things like "Apple is near bankruptcy" was spread through the internet by idiots who didn't understand finance. Sad.

 

Your comments and links are interesting. I like Tesla. I like their cars. I am just not sold on the buying direct model, I think they would be far better off with the traditional dealer franchise system. But we don't have to agree

As for lack of service, a Tesla still needs service. Coolant, brakes, cabin filters, tires, brake fluid, high efficiency HEPA filter, air conditioning service and a strange winter calliper lub service. https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/support/car-maintenance