Since Aprilia is new to the forum, I'll help him (her?) out here a little. Is this the link that you were looking for?

(I'm not saying here whether I agree or disagree with the article...we can discuss that in the thread).

 

The theory seems logical in a first shot.
But...
There are methodical problems with this. It's not a study, it's a serious analyse of somebody trying his best. We have, in the actual moment, no peer reviewing of those datas. So it is, for the moment, a relayed opinion.

What especially trigger my alarm clock is the fact that the liberty is taken to assume that peoples will systematically prefer EV's to ICE. I really doubt this.

 

 

Yawn.



/thread.

 

The chart shows highly-selective choices of various technologies.

Tell you what. The chart should also show "flying cars." They've been around for 50+ years. Or how about "home delivery of groceries." That's been around for 100 years. Or adoption of "turbine cars." They've been around since 1960. Or steamer cars.

But they are choosing only certain WINNERS. Not fair. That's like choosing to highlight only certain stocks that went up in hindsight.

And an "oil glut?" You know, if oil is cheap, it can be used in place of other fuels to generate electricity. Or heat. Think of the billions of third-world folks who would die for a reliable energy source like oil. The USA and Western Europe are on the very tip of the Quality of Life mountain. There are billions who are in the process of climbing that mountain. The only way that fossil fuels get shoved aside is if there is some sort of spectacular paradigm shift world-wide. How would that happen? At the tip of a gun? And the billions of souls without the niceties of modern life go along with this?

So, the imminent demise of the ICE? Right. The collapse of oil? Right.

The guys talk about how oil companies are now panicking and selling USA oil overseas in order to get rid of the stuff, of how they've been stockpiling oil but no longer. Wow, that's one bizarre way of looking at the current situation. Yes, it's true the USA has maintained the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" for many decades, but I don't think that we have been adding to it for some time. How about this scenario instead: for decades, the USA was producing less and less oil, simply because it was getting more and more expensive to get it out of the ground. It was cheaper to ship in tankers full of the stuff from the Saudis and others. Obama talks about the inevitability of $10 a gallon gasoline. Then--surprise!--some clever guys figure out how to get BILLIONS more barrels out of the ground (fracking) cheaply, and literally over the past decade the USA goes from making 4 million barrels a day and importing 5 million more to churning out 11 million barrels. More than we can consume at home. So we begin to export it. A whole different mindset than what the video claims.

I can certainly be wrong, but then so can these predictions. Sometimes a belief system gets in the way of pragmatic thinking, and I think that's what is happening in a lot of folks. I also don't believe in UFOs or that the moon landings were staged on a Hollywood set.

Anyway, Merry Christmas to everyone.

 

 

What flying car?

Why do you care so much about oil? Why is it so threatening? I get it, I'm a conservative (by definition; I don't like things to change). But if you can make me a better burger then why should I keep eating my old one? Name me 1person who would choose a BMW 7series vs a Tesla *for regular DD and city use*. Do you enjoy going to the gas station, handing over $70 (a nice dinner) every 2weeks? That's 26 steaks a year. Cmon man,,, we're not comparing a Prius to a Luxury car. We're talking two cars that are almost even. Get your head around this; you never have to go to another gas station, ever!

Happy Festivus!

 

 

Understand what you are saying (I'm pretty much a conservative myself), but the all-electric argument, especially with Teslas, doesn't always hold a lot of water. First, many people don't have access to charging facilities...especially the higher-voltage ones where you don't have to wait all night for a full-charge. Outside of California and maybe one or two other states, not much progress has been made nationwide in providing a widespread infrastructure for alternate-fuel (non-petroleum) vehicles....including high-speed charging outlets. Second, where cars are plugged in, as I understand it, those plugs/cords don't lock.....kids with nothing better to do in their spare time can come along and pull the plugs out as a prank, just like they used to steal vehicle ornaments/logos. Third, while it's true that you aren't going to the gas station, electric power isn't free....it also costs money, and it's not always cleaner energy if the power-plants use dirty coal-burning smokestacks without adding scrubbers to the stacks, or if you have potentially dangerous nuclear waste to dispose of at nuclear plants. Fourth, Tesla vehicles have lately shown an alarming decrease in reliability. Fifth, Elon Musk hasn't exactly done the brand name much good lately by acting like a spoiled brat in front of the cameras.

 

Besides being a guerilla promo piece for Rivian or whatever that truck will be called they just spent 20 minutes trying to debunk very common sense chart that says ratio between ICE and BEV will be 50/50 by 2040. If you expect ICE to hit 0 sales by 2030 that would mean that all the mainstream manufacturers have shifted completely to BEV which sounds highly unlikely. Only way for BEV to hit marker saturation is for big manufacturers to go all in BEV cause they are the only ones who can produce those kind of numbers. Just like with Tesla it became very obvious that process of designing the car and designing the technology still revolves around manufacturing capabilities as it's an industry itself. Tesla is very far away from being a global manufacturer like Mitsubishi and it will take them a decade to become relevant in production numbers worldwide. Not to mention their product will also take a huge hit as soon as mainstream manufacturers start offering BEVs with a your usual ICE car refinement in interior comfort that we are all used to. Tesla is a novelty at this point so they can getaway with interiors that belong in economy class of cars.

 

I hear you Marshall, but in terms of Electric Cars were still where the computer was in the 70's. With enough time/advancement the scales will tip. Do you know anyone who does business using a calculator? Or is it Quickbooks? Many car manufacturers will go the way of Texas Instruments and IBM.

Forget Tesla and an 8hr charge. Imagine Lexus making a GS/LS with 9sec qtr mile times but as comfortable and serene as ever. The missing ingredient is infrastructure. I believe the BIG car manufacturers have been causing a delay in building the infrastructure until they're ready to compete (that bratty Elon Musk guy ppl hate on, caused the Big Boys to get pretty scurred).

The only thing holding me back from owning a LX470 is the mpg's. Not that I can't afford it, but in my eye it's silly as a DD.

Currently we're getting electricity the Ack Bassword way. But sheesh, pointing a mirror at the sun seems pretty simple/cheap vs fracking& coal.

 

Sure. The guy (or woman) who sold you your last vehicle, in the showroom, probably used one at his or her desk to figure out the deal.....and the sales-manager, at his or her desk, to double-check the figures and approve the deal.

Hmm......comfort? Even as an ex-pilot and someone who went through flight-training, it's hard to imagine a nine-second quarter-mile, with that kind of acceleration-G, as comfortable. Exciting, perhaps, (in a proper setting, not on a public road), but not comfortable.

Not quite sure I believe that. The Big Three, themselves, have been producing alternative-fuel, non-petroleum vehicles for a long time. The Federal Government, for one, buys up whole fleets of propane/natural gas vehicles from GM, Ford, and Chrysler, (I was in Federal service myself for over 30 years), and, here in the D.C. area, would probably have more full-electrics it there were more of a charging infrastructure.

Like the Range Rover and Toyota Land Cruiser, the LX is a way of both going off road and to the country-club, in style, at the same time. And, unlike RRs, LXs and Land Cruisers are reliable.

There are a couple of problems with that, though, like night, clouds, shade, sun-direction, etc....

Storage-battery cells, of course, are a partial-solution, but they can only hold so much.

 

I like the analysis, and gave me some new things to think about which is great.

• I like the point on people waiting for EV's stalling the ICE market.
• Like point about lack of competition in SUV/Truck market being potentially misunderstood
• Not sure about the timelines, but the phases make some sense.

My feeling is it ignores a few things. Or that's my perspective.

• Broadband is still unavailable to massive portions of the country which stalls adoption. Sufficient electrical capacity and charging stations could be a similar issue.
• As oil gets cheaper, new ICE cars will likely become more attractive and maybe keep them around longer. Not just the used market.
• EV usage is likely to get more expensive. I say this because the people I know that drive EV's are heavily subsidized. Free charging at work etc. This benefit for early adopters will likely go away over time.
• I'm not sure where all this electricity is going to come from. Ditto for the battery chemicals. (Maybe I haven't read the right stuff yet)

 

IMO, for most areas, nuclear power plants are probably the best and most efficient way to go...provided safety and waste-disposal standards are met. Nuclear plants don't need large amounts of coal (mining coal can be dangerous and destructive), don't produce carbon-emissions, and don't produce threaded black-lung disease that coal-using facilities do.

I say "most" instead of "all", because, like or not, coal is critically important to the economy of West Virginia and parts of the surrounding states. Take coal out of the picture in those states, and you've got some real problems. That's why Trump is trying so hard (and, to some extent, succeeding), in revitalizing the coal industry in that region.