I suggest you do a bit of research Tesla makes their own cells they do not simply buy cells and and assemble them into battery packs. The 2170 cells themselves are also a unique design to Tesla I believe these cells have been in production for about 6 months in the Gigafactory. From what I've read they have higher energy density than anything else out there.

What I find odd is that you somehow think that other auto makers will automatically outdo Tesla sometime in the future, just because they have been making cars longer. That's a really weak argument and comes across as more of a hope than anything else.

I don't think you realize how important the Gigafactory actually is and how much of an advantage it gives Tesla. There is nothing else out there like it. BTW there have been persistent rumours that Tesla is working on a graphene like battery.

 

I am not aware that Tesla used Samsung-supplied battery cells. Panasonic is the current supplier and the partner in the Gigafactory.

The 18650 (18mm diameter x 65mm cylinder length) battery that Tesla uses in the Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the higher-capacity 2170 (21mm diameter x 70mm cylinder length) battery that Tesla will use in the Model 3, are commercial-standard sizes used in consumer electronic devices, such as laptop computers. Because they are commercial-standard sizes, these batteries will be cheaper. The 2170 cell is made by Panasonic and Samsung, but will be made by Panasonic in the Gigafactory. The purpose of the Gigafactory is to be able to mass produce the 2170 cells for the Model 3 in an attempt to drive down production costs and increase supply for the Model 3. Tesla needs to sell many Model 3s and sell them at a profit if it is to continue as a viable automaker.

What makes the Tesla battery pack special is that it packages thousands of the small commercial-sized cells into a battery pack with some special heat management to prevent overheating and fires. Using commercial battery cells made the Tesla battery pack cheaper and brought it to market quicker. Any automaker could have done this, and Mercedes-Benz and Toyota actually tried it, when both first invested in Tesla and got access to Tesla's drivetrain technology in return. But both seemed to have given up on Tesla's battery pack, deciding instead to design their own.

The limitation of Tesla's battery pack is the thousands of cells required for each battery pack. The shape of a battery pack may be limited by the cylindrical shape of the cells, as compared to a purpose-designed battery cell. And the capacity of the battery pack is less than a similarly-sized pack using larger, purpose-designed cells. Individual, small battery cells have a lot of surface area in the cell packaging that larger cells do not have. As an example, the larger 2170 cell has a higher capacity than the 18650 cell because of its larger volume. With the increase in the ratio of volume to surface-area, the larger 2170 cell packs greater capacity. Similarly, even larger, purpose-designed, proprietary cells can pack even greater capacity.

Other automakers are pouring a lot of money into EV battery and vehicle research; the Germans are certainly making a lot of noise advertising that they want to sell EVs in great volume in the next few years. And with the incredible resources at their disposal (remember that these are profitable companies that can afford to pour billions into EV research), I see no reason (other than technology hurdles) why they cannot succeed.

If Tesla wants to succeed, it will have to start delivering. All along, there have been promises made that were not met, the most obvious one being production volume of 500,000 cars per year. Over-promise and under-deliver seems to be the motto.

Tesla must also start making money; it cannot survive on hype alone. It is the hype surrounding Tesla and Elon Musk that drives up the demand for Tesla shares and drove it to a total market value greater than Ford Motor Company. It is this shareholder money that keeps it going but that will not and cannot continue -- sooner or later, Tesla's shareholders will start demanding that the company actually turns a profit.

Will Tesla be able to deliver and deliver at a profit?

 

Yep.....those two brief statements probably sum up this whole thread. And, as I see it, it was little more than hype that drove up the stock shares to these way-overpriced levels. You can only pump so much air into a balloon....sooner or later, that bubble will burst.

 

problem with ev cars is that its not a step forward in cost...automakers have tech that can replace all oil...but dont want to use it til oil is gone.

 

Tesla used to use Panasonic cells did they not? Those new 2170 are something new.

Other manufacturers can innovate & mass production too - even much better than Tesla can.

Like I said before, I can NOT somehow think that other auto makers will automatically outdo Tesla sometime in the future - anymore than you CAN somehow think that other auto makers will NOT automatically outdo Tesla sometime in the future!
We can only speculate. Only time will tell...

 

http://www.investopedia.com/news/mor...pany-tsla-bac/

I took delivery of my Model S last year. I can say that I've enjoyed it more than any other car I've previously driven (GS 300, GS 430, E63, M3, S550). Although I do miss the E63's exhaust note!

 

Well, the Model 3 is a short stubby thing, but I'd get it if I was in the market for a small sedan and I didn't need to carry tall/big people around. I just saw one in far western China so it looks like Tesla is doing worldwide testing and certification now.

 

The 18650 is a standard format manufactured by Panasonic, but Tesla has put significant R&D into improving the performance. The 18650s used in Tesla cars are still manufactured by Panasonic but are not the same as the standard 18650s that would be available to other automakers.

The 2170 is an entirely new battery co-developed by Tesla and Panasonic. Like the Tesla-specific 18650, it's not an off-the-shelf battery that would be available to other automakers.

So no, other automakers cannot just go buy batteries from Panasonic or Samsung and create a 300 mile range EV.

 

Yes, Tesla modified the standard battery but that does not mean that another automaker could not do something similar. It is not like Tesla or Panasonic are the only companies out there with the smarts to do that; Toyota worked with Panasonic to develop Toyota's hybrid vehicle batteries, after all. Tesla is also making their patents available so some other automaker could decide to do this, but no other automaker has decided to follow Tesla.

About the 2170 battery... You are correct that Tesla and Panasonic developed it but then Samsung went ahead and developed something very similar, in that same size. So some other automaker could work with Samsung instead of Panasonic for a similar battery pack.

You must also remember that both Mercedes-Benz and Toyota tried Tesla's battery and have given up on it, deciding to go their own way.

Using commercial standard-size batteries is a quick and (relatively) cheap way to get a battery pack on the market but using thousands of cylindrical battery cells in an EV battery pack has its limitations that no other automaker wants to do, it would seem.

 

Can or will? You seem to love to talk about hypotheticals.

 

Can is the potential.
Will is a prediction.
Can or will is beside the point.

What I was trying to say was that I was no better at talking Tesla down, that you were at talking Tesla up.