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I think the problem with all these "model 3 vs. X" articles is the model 3 does not exist yet! People say you can get it for $35k but what is the equipment it comes with at that price? Until we have an actual Monroney sticker to view it is all wild speculation.
As mentioned above only the first "lucky" model 3 buyers will get the full tax credit, so now you are on almost equal footing with a car like the ES price wise. Again we have not seen a model 3, but it's a safe bet the ES interior is far nicer and will almost certainly be better assembled than the 3. It is also likely an ES has far more standard equipment.
Tesla is interesting but they have a very long way to go to become a serious volume auto manufacturer.
BTW one other tidbit, I was at an electric industry trade show last month and there was a talk about US electric infrastructure. More than 65% of the US grid operates at a critical level of over 95% capacity utilization. The dirty secret with electric cars is widespread adoption would bring down most of the US grid. They estimated a minimum of $1 trillion, possibly as much as $3 trillion to upgrade the grid and add massive generating capacity to handle electric cars (which will be the biggest power consumer by far for an average house, dwarfing AC and other power hungry appliances). That cost will come from increased electrical rates, so there will be parity in cost between electric and gas and it could even be electric will be more in the future! Bottom line, there is no free lunch in transportation.
If Lexus and other automakers are not careful, Tesla has the potential of becoming an Apple-like phenomenon. And if that happens, there is nothing Lexus can do with their hybrids or their brand as Telsa will "the" brand.
In the long run, I don't think electric cars will take off as once demand hits a certain level, state governments will put a tax or increase on the price of electricity while charging their Telsa model at home. This will make tbe cost of running a Tesla about the equivalent of a comparable gas model.
BTW one other tidbit, I was at an electric industry trade show last month and there was a talk about US electric infrastructure. More than 65% of the US grid operates at a critical level of over 95% capacity utilization. The dirty secret with electric cars is widespread adoption would bring down most of the US grid.
Most people will be charging their cars during off peak times, which actually conserves energy because the generated electricity would not normally be used the generators run for "nothing". Maybe it will be an issue but not nearly as alarmist as some claim.
Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
If Lexus and other automakers are not careful, Tesla has the potential of becoming an Apple-like phenomenon.
I think that's already happened. Musk is seen by the faithful as dear leader that is going to lead us into the future. Well he might actually do that to an extent but yea Tesla has the large scale cult following thing going for sure.
Back in the late 1990's, Microsoft already had a pocket PC, and this overtook the Palm Pilot.
By around 2004, Blackberry's push buttons over took the Windows Pocket PC platform.
By the 2007, Apple first introduced their 2.5G cell phone, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer severely miscalculated by focusing on Windows 7, Xbox, and Xbox Kinect - and NOT on cell phones.
Even after Andy Rubin left Apple, and moved over to Google to create the Android Mobile Operating System, Microsoft CEO's Steve Ballmer was still condescending iPhone and Android.
Gradually, the Google Android OS software increased Android's market share to around 85%, while iPhone's market share dropped to around 11% globablly.
When we talk about hardware, Samsung has the greatest volume of cell phones annually.
However, Apple posts the most profits.
Hence, Apple iPhone, Samsung and Google Android software got a head start and market share that Microsoft could NOT regain.
Today, Microsoft's cell phone operating system called Windows 10 Mobile simply cannot catch up, because their market share is so small, developers see no value in spending large amounts of time developing app software for such small returns.
When we talk about electric cars, and Tesla, the situation is DIFFERENT.
Because Mercedes-Benz, VW Group, BMW and even Lexus are all working hard on developing electric vehicles EV.
Furthermore, EV is using basic Panasonic supplied Lion battery and rare earth magnet powered brushless electric motors - both already commonly used industrially throughout the world.
There is nothing that Tesla really has, that the big players don't have, or potentially don't have.
However, the big players hold a thing or two over Tesla when it comes to car body design and manufacture.
For these two reasons, Tesla is not Apple.
Once the big players kick in with their well designed, yet competitively priced electric vehicles, Tesla will be in big trouble.
If Tesla wants to lead the world, they must have something that the big players like Benz, Audi, BMW and Lexus don't have...
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Last edited by peteharvey; Jun 7, 2017 at 09:42 PM.
Tesla does have one thing no one else does. The Gigafactory due to economy of scale (on a level not seen previously) will allow Tesla to produce battery packs cheaper (and possibly better) than anyone else. This is not the end all be all but it is a distinct advantage, combine that with Tesla's reputation in electric cars I predict the Model 3 will sell out for years to come.
Tesla does have one thing no one else does. The Gigafactory due to economy of scale (on a level not seen previously) will allow Tesla to produce battery packs cheaper (and possibly better) than anyone else. This is not the end all be all but it is a distinct advantage, combine that with Tesla's reputation in electric cars I predict the Model 3 will sell out for years to come.
Ford was first into mass production with their Model T.
I don't see how that has stopped Toyota Motor Corporation from being the world's number 1.
I can't see how the Gigafactory will stop the likes of Mercedes-Benz, VW Group, BMW, Toyota Motor Corporation etc etc.
And the big boys know how to engineer and manufacture cars much better than Tesla with their simple interiors.
Remember how Palm Pilot led the world with their PDA's back in 1996 and 1997 etc?
Only a few years later, big player Microsoft overtook the pen stylus touch screen innovation of Palm Pilot with their Microsoft Windows Mobile Operating System with color LCD.
The situation with Tesla may be quite similar.
With Tesla pioneering the Lion EV.
And the big players coming back a few years later to overtake the pioneering Tesla EV's.
Unless Tesla has something very exclusive - they're gone.
As far as batteries and electric motors go, I can't see what Tesla has that is exclusive to the batteries and electric motors used industrially throughout the rest of the world...
Last edited by peteharvey; Jun 7, 2017 at 10:16 PM.
So what you're saying is the established auto makers will catch up and then surpass Tesla in electric vehicles. Maybe, maybe not that remains to be seen. There's an old saying companies that don't have a product to talk about talk about the future.
As for Toyota they claim the future is hydrogen is Toyota currently building factories to make millions of battery packs per year? When is their first built from the ground up electric car coming out?
My feelings about Tesla cars are similar to what peteharvey has stated. I always felt that once the more established automakers started to see a real market for EVs, they'd devote the necessary resources to take on Tesla. I think Elon Musk realizes this too, which is why Tesla seems to be positioned as more than a "car company," with getting into solar roofs and whatever else he has in mind. IMO, Tesla will be recognized for their cars, but their real interests will be in other industries.
So what you're saying is the established auto makers will catch up and then surpass Tesla in electric vehicles. Maybe, maybe not that remains to be seen. There's an old saying companies that don't have a product to talk about talk about the future.
As for Toyota they claim the future is hydrogen is Toyota currently building factories to make millions of battery packs per year? When is their first built from the ground up electric car coming out?
I can't be 100% sure, but I suspect so - unless Tesla has something that is "exclusive" to keep ahead of the big major competitors.
At the moment, Tesla trails in body engineering and manufacturing.
I don't think Toyota has the same attitude towards hydrogen fuel cell powered electric vehicles, as they did in the past.
Since November last year, Akio is heading Toyota's Electric Vehicles Division.
For example, their cars have no sun visors nor grab handles, nor cup holders.
Another example, the battery pack take up 4" of vertical floor space, yet the rear seat base is mounted at the same height, hence we sit in the back with our ankles kicked up high, and knees pointing to the sky - no match for S Class, 7 Series, A8 and LS.
Ignore the driveline like the battery pack and the electric motors - they have problems with front windscreen, gull wing doors, and many other issues as described by Consumer Reports...
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Last edited by peteharvey; Jun 7, 2017 at 11:59 PM.
Tesla is not a car company. Tesla is a battery company that uses cars as the vehicle to sell their batteries. I don't think Elon Musk has any intention of maintaining the Tesla auto brand long-term. I think the whole point of Tesla's auto division is to serve as a marketing campaign to show the public that battery-electric cars are viable and drive consumer demand, and to showcase their battery technology to the major automakers with the goal of becoming the primary supplier of EV batteries across the industry.
Another point is that the Tesla batteries are actually Panasonic or Samsung 18650 cells.
Tesla only assembles the individual cells together to make the battery pack.
There is nothing to stop Mercedes, VW Group, BMW or Lexus etc from purchasing Panasonic/Samsung 18650 cells, and assembling them to form their own battery packs.
Thus, once the competition kicks in, I fear for Tesla.
What Tesla needs to do is to innovate a "graphene" battery or something like that, and put a patent [copyright] that is "exclusive" to Tesla, such that major manufacturers like Benz, Audi, Lexus etc - must purchase these batteries from Tesla - then Tesla will have a great future.
Furthermore, Apple, Samsung & Google Android rely on a hardware, and in particular a software "ecosystem" of compatibility and apps to keep Microsoft Windows Phone and Windows Mobile out.
However, Tesla has NO such monopolistic ecosystem to keep competitors like Mercedes, Audi, BMW and Lexus out of the EV industry...
