Right now, they don't look good at all. Ford, especially, is in an EV bind. Sales are down 61%, and that could be a preview for much of the rest of the EV market. Tesla EV sales are also way down, but more so in Europe than in the U.S.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-...214913440.html

 

Anything that can be done by executive fiat can be reversed by executive fiat. Presidents change every 4-8 years.

I don't expect massive changes to capital investment by the automakers in response to this. At most they might delay investments in yet-to-be-produced EV's or hybrids.

 

😆. Akio

 

people are going to finally see what these govt regulations have been depriving us of in terms of choice and vehicle cost. CAFE heavily penalized smaller vehicles to get unrealistiic mpg targets. Hence why the market is moving towards bigger SUVs and trucks since those have lower mpg targets.

 

nice spin. of course sales in october were way lower than september because there was a huge unusual surge of orders in september (including mine) to get an EV before the tax credit ended. i suspect november will be better than october.

i think hyundai/kia/genesis is doing fine with them too, but yes, gm/ford lose a fortune on each ev sold. and gm, because they like to sell massive vehicles needed massive batteries that are very expensive to make, and take a long time to charge.

i continue to see more and more ev's on the road.

maybe for ford and gm, but not for all.

stellantis has to say that because they can't make ev's.

 

Welcome back. Haven't seen you post much lately.

 

Q3 EV sales stealing from Q4 is a fair argument. 2026 monthly year over year comparisons will be more telling. We'll soon see.

 

EV sales haven’t recovered
YOU bought an EV don’t mean the entire market is saved 🤣

that’s like a passenger in the Titanic locking himself in a room and there’s no water leaking so he celebrates victory.

 

This is a great decision for car enthusiasts and people that need more affordable transportation.

The CAFE rules encouraged automakers to produce larger / heavier cars to play the emissions game. Hopefully more affordable cars are made.

MB has announced that V8s will come back for AMG models, Hemi is back and new Boxster/Cayman will have an ICE engine.

More automakers will pivot especially with the EU decision to rescind the 2035 mandate.

 

all these gimmicks need to go away so engines can be reliable again: multi displacement, engine start/stop, exhaust gas recirc, thin oils. For diesels: EGR, DEF, diesel particulate filters. Good diesel tuning can achieve clean emissions without this expensive hardware

 

Ha! Thanks for the morning chuckle.

 

It is a good way to limit big 3 to USA only sales, so foreign makers can completely take over car production and sales.

GM already took a step back from Europe... Ford is facing diminishing future in Europe. China is next step.
In 10 years from now, all of the big 3 might be limited to pickups and large SUVs in USA and be bought off by some Chinese brand.

In 2014 Ford and GM combined sales were 16.2m vehicles worldwide, while in 2024 they were 10.5m.

Toyota alone now surpasses sales of Ford and GM combined with 10.8m in 2024.

This is all because of fall of their major markets - Europe, Asia, South America and China. It is only in USA where they are competitive.

10 years from now, these same lawmakers will talk as if someone else killed American auto industry.

 

People were clamoring to buy EVs before the expiration of the tax credit, so that drop is from the high before it ended. Have to wait and see.

Of course they lose money because of all the front loaded development and new platforms etc. EVs are the future, like it or not. Nobody is abandoning EVs. They will and are returning some focus to ICEs but if you think EVs are just going to "go away" and all of a sudden we're going to have large displacement engines again you're fooling yourself.

Also remember, the US is one market. Carmakers compete worldwide. What they can sell worldwide impacts what they will make here...and in 3 years these standards will be back and probably even tighter.

 

As compared to when? Because there was a jump in EV sales in the run up to the credits expiring. So a 45% drop from 9/2025 to 10/2025 would be predictable.
What manufacturers have learned is that every 4 years they face a potential shift in policy, and every economic downturn, they face a change in demand, so they aren't going to drastically change what they are doing, otherwise they are going to get caught flat-footed when the market changes.

 

another thing thats going to happen is with CAFE penalties at $0, the carbon credit redistribution is scam that some companies were heavily dependant on is going away. Then other companies that were heavily penalized: Stellantis and GM are set to benefit hugely from not having to pay them anymore.