Ok, bare with me.
I looked at 28 cars from craiglist, cargurus, and carfax and plotted their price vs mileage. I'm reading this chart correctly, the close the car is to the (0,0) the better.

The VIN was checked on the lexus website for service history. Some cars have service history up to 250K while some stop at 90K with only the minimum being done. Some had extensive CARFAX reports with regular service.

I was surprised that the service records from the lexus website barely mentioned changing the timing belt or the water pump. Plenty of drive belts though. The timing belt cost $1000 to replace right? I'm going to account for this in the sale price.

Another interesting thing that I noticed is that most cars had trunk strut issues around 30k.

Anyways - from the info provided do any options stand out to you? The only UL package was 16,000. It was a mix between having NAV. Either way I'm looking at getting the android auto system.

 

Quite an impressive matrix you've created.
I would focus on 2005 and 2006 MY cars, simply because they're better. The UL is nicer, but it has more stuff to go wrong. The struts are the first that come to mind, which can be easily rectified.

 

If you want something easier to work on then I would recommend a 01-03 since they have more easily serviceable parts and stuff.

I don't discern much driving differences at all between the 5 and 6 speeds

 

I have a really nice 2003 CL parchment crystal/ecru interior. It was one owner with 29 pages of service records from 1 Lexus dealership. I have put a ton of money into it since I got it last year. 98k miles, and pretty much everything has been done to it, including new brakes, all new hoses, new suspension including struts and bushings, new wheels and tires (plus originals), speakers fixed with Simply Speaker re-foam kits, Bluetooth added, etc...if I piqued your interest, let me know and I can tell you more.

 

Wow - a whole bunch of work went into that chart! Suggest adding 2 more columns to it: number of owners and whether offered by a dealer or a private party.

 

What makes the 05/06 better than the other ones. I am aware of the different trims but haven't heard year differences.

So looks like there is a difference between the earlier and later years. Can you explain how 01/03 have more easily serviceable parts and what changed?

I'm a little far from you but thanks!

I've already spent too much time on this. Only way I'll know how many owners is through the carfax. But why do you think one is better and the number of owners is significant?

 

Anyone? Still don't know which car I should even look at.

 

Rear tail lights use bulbs not non-serviceable LEDs, transmission uses T-IV fluid and has a dip stick, front lights are easier to change, there are simpler air bags, the suspension is about the same. I rate it as slightly easier to work on in those aspects and the big one is that the trans is way more readily available and cheap if something goes wrong since it's shared with a lot of car vs only the 04-06

 

I think you did a great job on your chart but one that that was left out at least the way I read it is that you're just trying to get the best deal possible? You have no opinions on color? No opinions on max mileage? No opinions on year? No opinions on package? If you really don't care for any of that at all then I would go for the best car that has had at least the timing belt done and mileage somewhere around 100k. A pre-purchase inspection is going to be the most important thing on any of these cars. Maintenance history is important but a car gets to a certain age where some stuff is going to have to be done again even if previously done sometime earlier in the cars history.

Carfax owners can sometimes be misleading. People move or re-title cars in different family members names and it counts as a change of ownership. If a car has had 6 owners you never know if it was 6 or really 2 or 3 with changes.

Trunk struts are a very common issue on these cars and are inexpensive to replace. They only serve to hold the trunk up once open, they do not pop up the trunk all the way open when you hit the button. Even brand new you had to physically open the trunk lid all the way up.

I see what the above poster says about 01-03 year cars being"easier" to service than an 04-06 face-lifted model but aside from the tail lights the other reported items are not really general service items and are certainly not widely reported problems. There are not huge differences in the cars other than cosmetics and transmission. The engine should be virtually the same. True that some 2004 models had a transmission issue that had a TSB that was easily remedied by a software reflash. Most have had it done by now and there are not widespread issues with 2004 transmissions failing anywhere on this forum. I would not hesitate to buy a 2004 if you found one you liked. Other than the scarce transmission issue on the 2004 I cannot think of a single difference between a 2004 and a 2006 model year but I am always open to learning new information. I have has a 2001 and a 2006 LS430 so I have owned both models.

 

That clears it up. Thanks. I think that the later models looks more aggressive though.

 

My preference is black but I think they look good in silver and white as well. I automatically didn't input the gold color. Regarding max mileage, I don't really have an opinion because don't know what the cut off should be. My understanding is this car can go for a long time with proper services. So a car with 250k that has extensive record is better than a 90k that never got an oil change. I'm flexible on the package because I can install the newer NAV if I want to drop $400. There was only one UL and was overpriced ($16,000!) I just learned about the 03/04 year split. I prefer the later years because they look aggressive but have to consider what Striker sayd, that the earlier years are more reliable [[Just readd your part about not having a noticeable difference. Thanks!]]

I think the most owners I saw was 3, but I am going to go back and check if there were any short term owners that just wanted to get rid of it. I noticed some cars as "liens"

 

It can always be shipped I think it has been covered pretty well here, but it mostly comes down to looks. The '01-'03 cars are a bit odd-looking, and they clearly cleaned up some of that awkwardness with the '04-'06. While they did upgrade the trans and a few other things, from behind the wheel you would have a hard time noticing any changes.

When I was looking, I went with the best one I could find, and while I much prefer the later years, this particular 2003 was the best total package at the time (they also are priced a bit lower). I really did not want to deal with the UL, so CL's seemed to be the best mix of options, without the hassle of the air suspension and rear A/C.

 

Given comparable cars, dealer prices are higher than those privately offered, so that has to be taken into account in any analysis. There are several advantages to buying privately, including the possibility/likelihood that the owner will have repair receipts that supplement incomplete Carfax data (for instance, the chain shop I use does not report to Carfax).

Number of owners may or may not be important in a particular situation, but in general, the fewer the better, especially a 1 owner.

What is striking about the chart is the lack of focus with prices and mileage being all over the place. Suggest deciding on range of years, mileage, and price, then look at a few to see if they line up with your expectations.

 

Finding a cream puff always garaged really well cared for and relatively low mileage LS430 would be my primary goal. These cars are all priced relatively low at this point because of their age. There are lots of beat well used LS430's around.

Finding and paying a little more for a really nice super well cared for car is well worth the extra money. Just not worth buying a "bargain" priced car unless you get super lucky and it is a cream puff. If you do find one , buy it immediately because it will be gone pretty quick.

 

When buying an older car, sometimes you have to buy on condition, not on color. I just got lucky that my cream puff was my ideal color. Be patient and be thorough with your search. The right example will come along and then you can experience what the rest of us already know about 430 ownership; HEAVEN!

If you narrow your search down more, post some pictures or a link to the car in question and we can help you formulate a fair but aggressive offer.