Howdy all,

Trying to come up with a fair value for this car.

It's a 2005 ML

• 2 owner
• 133K
• West coast car - no rust
• Previous minor accident reported on Carfax
• Big gap in service history but owner claims to have done frequent oil changes
• Never had the timing belt replaced
• Interior is OK: The usual cracked and worn leather, and needs a clean - but both seats are ripped
• Needs the typical repairs: subwoofer, door lock actuators, etc
• Needs at least two tires
• Some sort of tracking issue on the freeway over bumps – could be anything from lower control arm bushing, to multiple bushings / arms, to maybe an alignment, tie rod ends, or even possibly a steering rack. A real wild card. I haven’t driven the car yet.
• Oil leak somewhere (noted on lexus.com) but probably minor – owner not aware of it.

If I estimate about $500 to sort the questionable suspension, the total estimated repairs come to $3K – doing all the work myself, except for the timing belt and seat repair. This doesn’t include fixing the oil leak.

What I like and why I’m interested:

• Low mileage
• Has had a trans serviced by first owner
• The car looks cared for, over all: Bumpers are in good shape, the interior isn’t disgusting, etc
• Most of the work it needs is minor – aside from the timing belt and questionable suspension issue.

What I don’t like:

• Torn seats, but that can be fixed – for a price.
• Needs timing belt – a bit worried why this hasn’t been done yet.
• I’m just taking the owner’s word that the oil changes have been done regularly.
• Unknown suspension issue – could be minor or could be on the more major side.

To inspect and test drive the car is more or less an all day event, as there’s lots of travel involved.

It’s hard to value these cars. I see people buying garage-queens anywhere from 8500 to 14K – and the demand is higher than usual due to recent youtube publicity. But I see a lot of over priced and trashed LS430s on the market as well.

They are asking $9K What do you think is a fair value for this car?

My best guess:

• If it were mostly fixed up, it would bring $10500 - MAYBE 11K, tops???
• Which means I shouldn’t pay more than 7500- 8K for it, at the very most – since there’s a good 3K of repairs needed, right?

The problem is: Even if my assumptions are correct, I’m sure there are people lined up behind me that would offer the seller more than 8K for a 133K mile LS 430 – not knowing what they are getting into.

So you see the conundrum.

Thanks,

 

I would not buy this car - period. All the items you list at the top paint a picture of deferred maintenance, neglected repairs, and an uncaring owner. Not what you want when you are shopping for a 17 year old flagship car. Value? I'd put it at $ 5-6,000 tops. Forget what others might do. Keep looking and pay a premium for a car owned by a knowledgeable and careful owner who made timely repairs, has a verifiable service history and therefore did not neglect it.

By the way, "needs the usual repairs" is BS. There are a lot of cars of this vintage and even earlier that do not and never have needed the door lock, subwoofer, til/telescope repairs. Like my '05 and the '98 LS400 I just bought.

 

Yes, it has been neglected. I fully agree with everything you're saying.

On the other hand: I see 4cyl Toyota Camrys around the same year and mileage with asking prices of $6-8K

So it makes things confusing (for me, at least) when the price gets too low. Granted: A Camry is less complicated and less expensive to repair -- probably less likely to need $3K+ repairs and another $1500 in deferred maintenance.

 

when I bought mine, 2005 with only 65,000 miles on it for the same amount I could have a 2016 camery with 96,000 miles on it.
when mine was listed I was first caller and took it no haggle.

 

The price of other cars is pretty much irrelevant to me too. The question is - what do I want and what is the market price for it.
If you are looking in the NW, look at this one. An '05 CL or UL with 85K miles at $14K. Private party, elderly owners, probably garaged, rust free, looks clean. Pay the premium for a premium example and don't look back.
https://olympic.craigslist.org/cto/d...639432374.html

 

You make a good point -- I agree in principal. Although, that's easier said than done.

A few high-dollar examples I've seen in the last month or two:

• That particular car you linked to is sketchy. In regards to the link you posted: I couldn't even get the time of day from the seller when I asked for the VIN - 3 times. That was more than a week ago. Eventually I figured out I could get the VIN from the license plate using an online tool. And when I put the VIN into lexus.com the car was reported to have 143,265 miles. - not 84,500 miles.
• I saw another sub-100K mile "cream puff" last month for going for $13K. When I put the VIN into Lexus.com the last service record said the engine was completely sludged up and two lifters had collapsed. Some poor soul bought that - probably at full asking price. God only knows what measures the dealership took to get the car running right, temporarily. Basically it was lipstick on a pig.
• Another sub 100K mile car they wanted like $15K for - total base model. Lexus.com said the owner reported it sat for 2+ years without running, still had twigs and tree debris on the car when they posted the pics, had significantly damaged bumpers, and a gigantic crack across the windshield.

This is the kind of garbage I'm seeing over here. It's infuriating.

 

Quick update: I talked to the seller. They are willing to do $8K after I showed them the $3K+ in repair costs.

Granted, that doesn't account for other deferred maintenance I'll need to do, but still....

 

Have you seen the car in person yet?
If not, with all the aforementioned concerns, I wouldn't even make the trip.

It sounds like you're chasing after a "low mileage" 430. There's basically no difference, reasonably, between a 133k mile 430 and a 163k mile 430.

 

It is not just the age, but how the car has been treated over it's life. I bought an '05 base last October. 2 0wners. Had a 5-page carfax with full maintence and spent it's entire life being serviced by Lexus of Concord CA. 187,000. Cost $8900. Spent about 3k on repairs with a super good mechanic.
Changed oil, power steering , tranmission and diff fluids, replaced a trunk latch and regulator, new michelins. What was telling to me were all the wear and tear details fixed by previous owners, like the hood and trunk pistons, 2nd timing belt replaced at 180,000. Etc. It is my daily driver and have been on a couple of 800-mile trips. The thing now runs like a well cared for swiss watch.

 

Yea, you really have to go see a car first. Pics can only show so much, does the interior smell like smoke? All of the windows don't work? Speakers crack? You don't know this till you sit in the car and press all the buttons. Also get a feel of the owner, is the car parked in the middle of a field? Or the owner lives in a 3 million dollar house.

Torn seats is pretty much an auto no for me. Minor bumps and scratches is to be expected for the age. Obviously any service would be good, but a lot of it is just wear and tear that you will eventually have to do anyways. Does the suspension feel weird, weird noises on the drive, how does the car shift. You will only know in person.

I've seen plenty of cars that looks great in pics but rarely better in person. Dents not visable in pics, cracks, chips in the glass. Paint rub marks.

 

Thanks for thinking this one through with me, gents.

By the time I added everything up - especially with the deferred maintenance that was needed (not even part of the numbers I mentioned), I couldn't get the car to make much sense, logically. I would have been at "cream puff" prices by the time everything was done and there would have been many months of time, elbow grease, and literal backaches involved in getting the car there, having to do nearly all the work myself.

So I decided to pass. It's too bad the car was so neglected, or the seller couldn't have come down a bit more, so the numbers made sense - but it is what it is.

He seemed like a nice guy and was fully aware the car was due for a lot of work. But he also had a lot of buyers lined up behind me, waiting to offer him a better price. So, obviously he chose to take more money - as most people would.

 

Based on all of the above you made a good decision. My ‘01 started to have a few very minor issues and so I shopped for a ‘04-‘06 but after seeing around 5-8 cars in the area I decided instead to invest in the car I knew. Recently did the TB/WP service when the the radiator gave out (at 265k) and went ahead and did plugs, fluids (transmission and differential), and replaced a worn wheel bearing.

Drives like a brand new car.

My priority would be to have a well kept interior (leather in good shape, no tears, clean dash, etc.) as the mechanical issues will need to addressed in any case. Don’t be afraid to assess ‘01-‘03 even with higher mileage as long as the maintenance history can be confirmed.

Good luck on your search; be patient and get a car you like and can invest in.

 

Spend to buy. Do not spend to repair. Good ones of these cars do start to see higher prices. Dealers started to price them higher than 2007-2009 models. My local dealers listed 3 2006s with 43, 53, 68K miles for $22K, $21k, $20K, 1 of them is ML, the other 2 have no Navi and have no timing belt replacement records.

A 2004 with 37K miles was sold today for $16647, within 24 hours showing up in the market. I would’ve considered this was priced too high last year but not any more. Look for deals like this and act quickly.

 

Aside from Craigslist, what sites do people here recommend using?

 

Some people like Bring-a-Trailer (but only see one overpriced 430 showing presently). I have used Autotrader in the past but that lists mainly small dealerships with questionable car backgrounds bought at dealership only auctions. These are mostly trade ins from Lexus dealerships and they don’t keep cars this old for resale; a few “gems” can get through.

Private sellers use CraigsList and the best source for potential clean cars. Maintenance history is a must so having the VIN and an account on the Lexus app will help somewhat.