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You will get a wide range of opinions/thoughts/theories but the only real way to know is to have an oil change analysis done. This will give you feedback on the oil itself as well as how well the filter is filtering.
Personally I change both oil and filter every 5K. I would say if you are doing 10 or 15k mile oil changes the filter needs to be changed at least once if not twice during that time.
Based on the UOAs I've seen the filter is probably ok to at least 10,000 miles (I've seen a BUNCH of 10k change UOAs, and 100% of them were still fine), but it's probably is about done by 12,000 as all the OCIs I've seen in that range suggest that.
that being said if you want to run 15k OCIs you'll probably want to change the filter at 7500 to make things easy.
As always the best way to know for SURE what OCIs and FCIs you should use for YOUR car in YOUR driving conditions is UOA.
First change after regular oil should be after 3000 or 4000 miles. You'll see how dirty the oil would be. ( Synthetic will be clean your motor after that regular crap u been using so far) Then Put the fresh synthetic and change it every 7-10k miles. Don't wait to 15k oil is cheap...
P.S. I had regular oil then switched to full synthetic Mobil 1. I was not happy. After 3k miles switched to Castrol edge 5w30 full synthetic and that's it!!! Absolutely love it!!
I tried 10k once it was super dirty. I was testing out Total Quartz. I used to use it on my WRX with great results, always came out still cleanish after 10k, but I guess its because my IS250 has over 100k and I don't know what kind of motor oil the previous owner used.
Also, $6 an oil filter from toyota is a cheap price to pay for just just knowing I always have a good working filter in my car.
Just went synthetic yesterday at the Toyota dealership. They said and had printed material stating the oil and filer should be changed at 10k miles. The fact that they had that in writing made me feel secure that the filter would be fine to 10k.
I think we as a society are still caught up on "old thinking" like we blame our parents and grand parents for doing. We grew up with 3k oil changes being gospel, but technology in oil and filters has gotten very progressive. When the dealerships start saying 10k on synthetic is recommended, doing any less is throwing money away.