Lexus corporate called me today (the first of probably 2-3 more calls to come) regarding my soon-to-expire lease. I told the nice lady I may look elsewhere as my lease expires in July - before the next GS will be released. She replied the preview date of 4GS is June 29 and release date sometime in October (she wants me to extend my lease another six months for the 'seamless transition' to move into a 4GS). She has not seen a picture of the 4GS.

So...there you have it. Take this for what its worth (not sure I'd bank on it but she did volunteer the information AND the call was being recorded). She either error-ed BIG TIME or...made a big time error.

 

Sounds to good to be true. If the 4GS was debuting in June I'm positive that there would have been some spy shots with tons of info and specs on it. Sound like she's trying to keep your business. But I could be wrong.

 

Actually that timeline sounds about right as that is the way it was for the 3GS too. I had my money down in August of 05' so this does sound about right. I would have thought something would have been leaked by now but with everything that Toy/Lex has been going through maybe they are weathering the storm and hopefully the GS will be their bombshell to a new beginning.

 

Did she mean an all new model, or did she just mean the 2011 GS350.

4 months from first announcement to launch seems like an exceptionally short time. Also I thought GS is on a 7 year cycle.

 

in previous history, lexus has always been pretty darn good in hiding their prototypes until release

fall? umm, sure, let's see

 

o interesting...

 

Lets see what they got coming for us

 

4GS.. I'd like to see that... makes it harder to choose which generation to get..

 

considering that bmw, benz, and infiniti have all revealed their next gen models.......

maybe lexus moved up their GS schedule by a year.

A6 is supposed to come later this year too


wouldn't wanna be last to the game....

 

yeah, where are the spy shots? pretty sure I saw several spy photos of the new GX last summer. they're not just going to release a car without someone driving it around as a prototype (even Apple does this with it's new Iphone). why in the hell is someone from Lexus Corporate calling you about getting you into the 4GS? sounds like it would be a salesman or Lexus Financial...not Mrs. Wong from Tokyo.

 

The cycle has been
E class
5 series
GS

The last 3 generations. The Fuga is on a short Nissan 5 year cycle thus so is the M37/56 (and IMO way to short for this class).

 

Actually there is a significant advantage in being last. for 4 years or so they will have the newest model out of all the competitors. That was certainly one of the factors in why I chose the GS460 over the BMW 550 and M45. It felt less dated, and had a longer time until it became outdated. There were other factors too (like its better looking, and comes with lexus reliability and service), but the fact that it was newer looking was key.

 

BTW From a strictly financial standpoint, as someone who owns his car, when is the optimum time to switch?

The longer you wait the more the value of the old car dips as people twig onto the new body shape. On the other hand the longer you wait, the better a deal you can get on a new one. When I look at historical residuals for Lexus GS, but also competitor models in this class, once the new model is fully established, there is a 4 thousand dollar dip in the value of the old model relative to the normal depreciation trajectory.

Any thoughts on this?

 

This is true if you own the car but on a lease the residual is already set and can not be change by market conditions. So on a lease, you are safe but if you own your car - you need to get out ASAP before 4GS comes out.

 

In regards to leasing, my CPA says (assuming you can write of the use of the car) five years as you can only depreciate for that long. If your concern is more lease vs purchase, the cut off time is 6 1/2 years. If you'll drive a car longer then 6 1/2 years, you're better off with the purchase.