Same argument is used against Tesla, they are only growing 35% in a given year instead of 50% the sky if falling.

 

Just give up, you’re not going to get anywhere lol. We all know you’re right, they do too they just won’t admit it.

Anybody with any business experience knows if I project my business will grow 50% and it only grows 10% I have not failed…I just didn’t set a realistic goal. This is a field that is rapidly changing and it’s very hard to predict where it’s going with accuracy. That’s why manufacturers are flexible like this.

 

Of course they did. If there are 11k of these on lots that ain't good. This is just the beginning, over the next few years this will just continue Tesla not included. I'm not trying to **** anyone off by saying that so let's not get defensive, it's merely my opinion. Lightning is just not practical. And for what, 90k? Oh wait, not anymore because they've slashed prices because they're not selling nearly what they thought.

The theoretical tow to the lake house and back which is an hourish away I said an F-150 Lightning wouldn't make.. I'd have to stop and charge..... and do what with my attached boat exactly? I forgot all about that part of it.

 

Again, “this will continue” you must mean market share for EVs will continue to grow YoY by 50% and manufacturers may over estimate what that growth will be…because to be clear that’s what has happened. We are calling something a failure because it didn’t sell as much more than the previous year as they thought it would. Still
sold way more…

 

Wrong. When you say you are going to produce 3200 a week and change that to 1600 a week, everyone considers that a cut to production. Because to business world, production isn't just about what you roll off the line today. It's about what you expect and commit to produce going forward. That's why Ford put those numbers out there to begin with. That's what they said they were going to produce. Now we know it's half of that. That's why every article out there states a cut to production. Nobody cares about the simpleton view of "they will produce more today than yesterday". They are looking at the big picture of production and what was promised and what is being delivered. Anything less than what was promised is considered a cut.

 

We'll see!! I said way earlier in December lets see at Xmas 2024 what kind of year Lightnings have sales-wise.

I'm fine just leaving it at that until this December, but some people were still arguing.

 

Absolutely wrong. If you tell investors you are going to grow your business by 50% and you only grow it by 10%, that is a HUGE failure.

 

I just want to be clear that we're operating from the same set of facts. You accept and recognize that EV sales are currently growing, not shrinking correct?

When did I say I was talking about reporting to investors? When making projections its really important that those goals be realistic and attainable. This is a failure of projection and goal setting, not a failure of the product, thats my point. Sales of the product are growing, they are just not growing at the level that they projected they would. Thats entirely different than a model who's sales are shrinking, which is the comparison you tried to make before.

There is no question that basically everybody in the industry has been too aggressive in their projections of how quickly EV sales share would grow, but the share is growing. Manufacturers will rightfully be more conservative going forward when it comes to projecting growth.

 

Well, Ford has investors. And the entire financial world revolves around growth potential and meeting those expectations. When you put a number out there, they expect you the meet it. Lots of money moves around based on what these people claim they are going to do. That's why everyone calls this a production cut, even though they have never come close to producing 3200 a week. The market is months if not years ahead of the day to day or month to month production numbers. Those production expectation were already baked in, and reducing them is absolutely considered a cut.

 

Which is why they need to reevaluate how they project EV growth moving forward. This is not a problem that only Ford has…

 

While I’m the first to admit that 98% of media is complete fake news bullshyt, guys just read the headlines on every article.

“Weak demand
Low sales”








Read those headlines. In what world does this fit the narrative that EVs are the future and Americans want/need them so badly??? Even CNN is being bleak.

 

Articles are titled to make people read them, you know that. Sales are weak compared to their projections but sales are up vs the previous year, not down.

To be clear, you understand that EV sales are growing right? EV market share in 2023 was up nearly 50% from 2022.

Progress is not a straight line.

 

True, but I don't see others like Tesla shutting down production capacity. Maybe some are, but I just haven't read about it. Closing down 2 entire shifts and moving workers to other plants and offering retirements packages to others is a pretty big deal. More than what they said in December. And now the number is 1600 a week. Assuming that they work every week, that's over 83k in 2024. A few thousand less if they don't. That's 3 times what they sold last year. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it seems very optimistic.

I still think a plug in hybrid with a 25-40 mile electric range would have been a better idea for the truck market. The best of both worlds. The BEV truck market definitely has a ceiling, and the market has too many options for Ford to get to their initial estimates.

 

Tesla is way better at anticipating demand and growth in the EV space than Ford, which makes sense since they have a lot more experience selling them.

Moving labor from one plant or line to another happens all the time.

 

Someone took delivery of this. Anything catch your eye?