And those increased speeds contribute to more fatalities....

I didn’t say 20 year old studies negate findings; I wrote that multiple studies from 20 years ago have different conclusions and are inconclusive.



Again, I’ll write that I’m happy I don’t drive Baltimore/DC region anymore

 

Except fatalities are down, not up.

 

Exactly. You have hit on part of the problem (Mustang shows)....but, in fact, it goes way beyond that as well.

Interesting, though, that you don't see that nonsense at the classic old-GM shows, where you have old Corvettes, Camaro-SS/Z28/IROC, Pontiac GTO, Olds 442, Buick GS/Grand National, Pontiac Trans-Am, and other high-performance GM products I can't speak for the old-Mopar/Chrysler shows, because I haven't been to many of them). But something about Mustangs, (with some sensible exceptions) seems to make them a cult for aggressive drivers.

 

The pandemic (and less-driving earlier this year) brought down down some fatalities, but, in general, 427 Monster is correct......all else equal, more speed = more damage/injuries/fatalities if and when a crash does happen. In the natural world, one cannot escape the laws of physics. Sir Isaac Newton proved that centuries ago...and the world's smartest scientists have not been able to refute it yet.

 

Has nothing to do with the pandemic, the numbers have looked at don’t even include 2020. Traffic fatalities have been declining YOY pretty steadily.

Vehicle travel is getting safer, not more dangerous

 

One thing that is contributing to that is lower speeds because of more congestion. That increases the chance for a general accident, but decreases the chance for a high-speed impact. Seat-Belt laws and multiple air-bags have also helped....they won't stop the laws of physics in a crash, but help the occupants better-deal with them.

 

Average roadway speeds are increasing, not decreasing. Bottom line is, road travel is getting safer. You can explain it away all you want but I know the numbers well. Increasing speed on roadways does not cause an increase in traffic deaths, nor does it cause an increase in traffic accidents. Modern cars are much safer, they are much easier to drive well and they help hide average and poor drivers lack of skill. That means cars can be driven faster more safely than in the past.

Here's a neat chart, you can see the trends even though population is increasing and vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is increasing, deaths and unquestionably coming down:

 

It is not a spin or "explaining". There is nothing incorrect about what I stated....all verified by scientific laws.

 

But what you infer from that is not accurate.

The bottom line is average speeds are up, traffic fatalities are down. There is no correlation between higher average traffic speeds and higher traffic fatalities.

 

Cars are a lot more safe as well over time, I'd have liked to see diamonds for "shoulder belts added', 'seatbelts mandatory' and 'airbags mandatory' and 'ABS mandatory' on that chart to see if they correlate with changes.

However, I don't see speed as a part of that chart. Here's a specific study that aligns with MM's perspective, granted it looks like it's sponsored by an Insurance funded initiative:

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-...08.5%20percent.
Link to the full detailed version of the study referenced by CR
https://www.iihs.org/api/datastoredo...liography/2188

EDIT and another one that has a lot of data and detail with sophisticated models
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2598360/
Personally I like the higher speed limits and wish the reverse findings were true, but I don't think it's the case.

 

LOL same here in Bay Area California. The speed limit is 65 but everyone's going 75-80. I pass cops going 80 nobody cares. Over 80, yeah you might get pulled over, but otherwise it's good. And honestly, if you're going 65, there's something wrong lol.

 

65 is usually reasonable, unless you are in very high-density traffic. 75-80 could be pushing it, though, especially if something unforeseen happens to the vehicle, like, say, a tire failure or blowout (I actually had that happen once).

 

Ive read all of that. The answer is there's a lot of politics that go into this, and the lobby to keep speed limits low is very powerful. Like I said, the Government makes a ton of revenue off of traffic fines, and when we start talking about small and rural municipalities that % of their revenue gets shockingly high. The methodology of those studies is questionable.

When you take the findings of that study and try and reconcile them with the fact that traffic fatalities have pretty steadily fallen over the last 40 years that really can't be logically reconciled. If rasing the speed limit 5 MPH had a corresponding increase in fatalities, then you would see over the last 15 years or so when speed limits have been raised throughout the country a rise in fatalities. You dont. You would also see a a dip in fatalities surrounding the implementation of the national 55 MPH limit in the 70s....and you don't. What you see are dips surrounding periods where you saw significant reductions in the number of miles traveled (WWII Gas rationing, energy crisis, great recession). Those drops in deaths didnt last long, you saw increases as travel normalized even though the overall trend is down. Then there's the side of it where we have studies that show the setting of the speed limit doesn't impact 85th percentile speeds. So, raising the speed limit on a road where it is artificially low wouldnt raise average speeds anyways.

The argument is not for unrestricted speed, or the idea that everybody should just drive as fast as they can. Its the concept that the safest speed for a roadway is the 85th percentile speed. You have many roads in the country where that is the limit, the 85th percentile speed is the gold standard among traffic and roadway engineers for setting limits. You also however have a strong drive within municipalities to set them LOWER than that speed and the only reason is to generate revenue.

Thats also something that is much less common today than in the past, tire failure. Tires today are much less prone to high speed failures than they were even 20 years ago. I have had that happen too, but it was 25 years ago.

Cars today are much more capable at driving at speed for long periods very safely, and protecting their occupants from injury than they used to be.

 

Wouldn't doubt it for the first one, but specifically, why? Do you have a statistics degree or did you read something questioning it? Link?

The second study specifically is from the National Institute of Health that doesn't seem to have a dog in this fight. There seems to be a ton of data and models applied to that one, why is questionable?

Your comment about overall fatalities dropping isn't a reason; there have been SO many other factors with vehicle safety improvements that have caused most of those decreases, and I think one of the studies also addressed that specifically.
Think about it, during the 40 years you mention:
Dashboards changed from metal to padded
Bumpers from sharp metal to pedestrian friendly
Seatbelts from optional lap belts to click on shoulder belts, to connected shoulder belts to warning buzzers, to mandatory warning and tickets to self tightening seatbelts at accidents
Addition of a single drivers airbag in late 90s to dozens of them throughout the car
No third brake light to super bright LEDs
Headlights from dim bulbs to swiveling LED and HIDs
Bias Ply Tires that blew out regularly to many who have never had a flat tire
Drum brakes to disc up front to 4 wheel disc to ABS
crumple zones
etc etc etc
THAT is the stuff driving most of the overall reduction you cite. The studies I list are specifically looking at speed increases.

These studies aren't done on unrestricted speed you mentioned; they're on 5 and 6 mph increases in the speed limit.

 

I've read so much on this topic over the years its hard to remember what came from what source etc. I don't have a statistics degree but I have studied statistics.

The issue with the second study is that we dont know anything about the roadways or for what speed they were designed. You can't discuss speed limits in a vacuum, the roadway we're talking about is important. Every roadway has a design speed, and roadways in different countries are built to different standards. When Im talking about roadways with artificially low speed limits I'm talking about US style limited access divided highways.

Even in Israel since that study was released, they have raised speed limits beyond the limits used in that study:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/speed-...ajor-highways/

The road and type of road we are talking about matters.

Most US interstates are designed for a speed of at least 70MPH. The 55 MPH speed limits were placed in the 70s to reduce energy usage, and on many roads those limits have struggled to come up after the repeal of those limits in the 90s. What you find is the 85th percentile speed of those roads tends to be about what the design limit was, because thats what feels safe and natural on the road. So if you have a road design speed of 70, and the 85th percentile speed is 65-70...why is the limit 55?

Case in point, I270 in Montgomery County, MD where I live. Design speed is 70....85th percentile speed is 65-70. Limit is 55. These are the types of roads and limits I'm talking about. Limit on that road should be 65 or 70.