Minivan sales keep falling, but experts say they'll live on

DETROIT -- They were the suburban vehicle of choice in the 1990s and early 2000s, but ever since, minivans appeared to be riding the slow lane to extinction.

The soccer moms who once made the boxy people-haulers ubiquitous have shunned them for car-based SUVs with three rows of seats. Many automakers have stopped selling them. In fact, Chrysler sold more minivans by itself in their heyday than the entire industry does today.

But don't turn in the van keys just yet. For the automakers that still make them -- Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Toyota and Kia -- the minivan business is still good because the competition has bailed, giving them a bigger piece of a shrinking pie. And they're hoping that as more millennials, now ages 23 to 38, raise families, they'll see the value of sliding doors, fold-flat seats, ample storage and easy access to the third row.

Because of their people-hauling capabilities, minivans also hold promise as autonomous vehicles, meaning they may once again become popular -- if people don't have to be seen actually driving them.

"There is nothing else that can compete with a minivan," says Tim Kuniskis, head of passenger vehicles for Fiat Chrysler, which leads all automakers in sales with two minivans in the U.S. market. "From a carrying people and stuff perspective, nothing touches it."

Last year, minivan sales sank to 364,000, the lowest level in more than 30 years and only about one-quarter of the 1.33 million sold in 2000, the peak year, according to the CarGurus.com auto website. Sales are down another 16 per cent in the first half of this year, with no end to the decline in sight. That's a far cry from 1993 to 2005, when automakers sold more than 1 million of the vans every year.

Also, minivan market share has slipped from 7.2 per cent of U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2000 to 2.5 per cent this year, according to the Edmunds.com auto pricing site, which provides content to The Associated Press.

Minivan sales generally follow birth rates, which have been falling for 32 years, said George Augustaitis, director of industry analytics CarGurus, who predicts further declines. "It's going to exist, but it's never going to exist like it once had."

Yet for automakers that are still in, minivans are good business. The only large competitors left for Fiat Chrysler are the Honda Odyssey and Toyota Sienna. Kia offers the Sedona, but sales are relatively small. Other market segments can boast over 1 million sales per year, but they also come with 20 or more competitors, Kuniskis said.

In the early 2000s, just about every automaker had a minivan, with as many as 18 on sale in 2005, CarGurus said. As Ford, General Motors and others exited as sales tumbled, the number shrank to only five this year.
Profit margins on the minivans are high, with a few options pushing the sticker price north of US$40,000.

"Balloons rain from the sky every time they sell an Odyssey," said Jeremy Acevedo, senior manager of industry insights at Edmunds.

That can be bad for young families who need the vans but can't afford big price tags. Fiat Chrysler has realized this and in the fall will start selling a Chrysler Voyager, a Spartan version of the Pacifica, starting around US$27,000. It likely will replace the ancient Dodge Grand Caravan, which the company has been selling for about the same sticker price. The old van, unveiled in 2008 and last updated in 2011, is the top-selling minivan in the country this year at around 72,000.

For Melanie Matcheson, 44, who lives near Waterbury, Connecticut, no vehicle other than a minivan could efficiently haul her family of two adults and five children ages 2 to 22. She bought an eight-passenger silver Pacifica in mid-June for about US$31,000, getting an US$8,000 discount.

She rented a Chevrolet Suburban big SUV but didn't like the gas mileage, and she says smaller SUVs lacked trunk space.

Matcheson doesn't care that a minivan could have the stigma of a 1990s soccer mom. "I think the newer ones look very nice," she said.

Fiat Chrysler's Kuniskis is hoping there are more people like Matcheson who see the vans' practicality. He says millennials he has talked to liked the minivans they grew up with and they're now having children. They're expected to surpass baby boomers as the largest population segment, and that could boost sales.

Also, at least one autonomous vehicle company has found the vans optimal for its ride-hailing service. Google spinoff Waymo is buying up to 62,000 Pacificas from Fiat Chrysler and is using them to haul people and test self-driving systems.

CarGuru's Augustaitis says the vans are appealing to Waymo because they are easy to enter and exit and can be used more like a living room or office when autonomous vehicles start carrying people in more places.

"It could see something with autonomous because of how you can outfit them," he said.

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^^^ I've said exactly that for years, although I'm single, without a family, and have never owned one myself. Too many people, though, who actually needed a minivan, have let the negative image/sigma (and fear of their friends making fun of them) to go ahead and get one. Some minivans, though, have not been reliable. Steve, for example, has posted on numerous problems with his Pacifica, and my old Flight Instructor (who I am still friends with, and keep in touch) has had two new Siennas that he was displeased with because of problems and Toyota foot-dragging on correcting them. In addition, many Odyssey owners have reported transmission problems.

 

New minivans are too expensive, IMO, which is likely a big driver of low sales volume. When you can pick up a gently used 3 year old sienna XLE for $25k, why buy a new one for $35k? Save the money as these vans will likely go many miles before something major breaks.

 

We have a 19 Odyssey for our family needs and there really is no replacement for 3rd row access and space, as well as behind seat capacity. We'll likely have some sort of minivan in our garage for the foreseeable future.

My parents have also had a great ownership experience thus far with their 17 Pacifica, and use it for errands, deliveries, golf trips, etc.

 

I'm looking forward to the redesigned Sienna.

 

I have no issues with minivans and would be fine owning one for family duty, but our requirements were hybrid and AWD, which is not a combination that is currently offered in a minivan.

 

My buddy got an odyssey and I ragged on him to no end. Then we got pregnant with Twins and I ate my words. Wife had a 13' ES350 and it was not a kid friendly car..... Wifes now on her second 15' Sienna Limited Premium and I picked it up lightly used with 19k miles for less than 25 grand. Damn thing has more extras than my late model LS460 L. I hated them at first but now I wouldn't have it any other way. the kids are 3.5 now and the way they wreck the car I would not be happy if it was an LX570. Also the power sliding doors are a game changer. I even tow our smaller boat with it across the state. 15' Boston whaler.

I tell everyone its our "hammer"... just a tool that gets the job done real well. When I want to ride in style we take the LS-L which has plenty of room in the back for the kids albeit going in the van is way more comfortable and the 16" TV in the back helps.. I figure we will run the van until it has 100k miles then switch to an LX570. By that time the kids will be out of car seats. Buddys wife has an Audi Q3 because she refused to get a van and they are constantly telling me how much they suffer with it.

 

Dont do it. They eff up the cars worse as they get older. My Odyssey is my "i couldn't care less" car. It does soccer, beach, camping and all other dirty duty. Its a completely awesome vehicle for that. Keep the minivan forever. It will be near worthless anyway with the kids destroying it.

 

Haha that's our plan too. Kids are 4 and 2 now and our 18 Ody is just messy all the time. I take them to daycare in my 3 because I like driving it, but weekends are minivan all day

 

i think it would be cool if SUV's had sliding rear doors.

How come no one wants to build one

 

Thats hilarious. I also have a Performance 3 and if we go somewhere nice, I'll take it but make the kids 1) take off shoes in car 2) wash their hands to its not greasy 3) watch when they open their doors. After years of yelling at them, they are pretty good about all those things Minivan is no rules though...we put about 25k per year on it but now have a 2nd commuter car so we only use it on the weekends. Keeping that thing forever.

 

Because then it would be called a minivan. Haha.

They're also harder to build and manufacture. A lot more complex and costly than just a hinged door.

 

I laughed out loud at this one. My dad is as **** as they come about cars and hes always breakin my &&&'s about not being as on top of the van as I am of the Lexus and I always say "I couldn't care less about that thing". I keep it clean and change the oil every 5k. You are probably right about its value. probably be work 6-8k in 5 years. At that point get her something nice to daily drive and keep the van as the beater mobile.

 

 

Agreed, minivans won't go anywhere. We're getting to the point where we dont need one anymore, but its been the most versatile vehicle I've ever owned. I hate driving it though.

100% agree, we have 4.5 year old twins...its nice having a vehicle that will swallow all that stuff, easy to load the kids in and out, and they destroy it and I don't care, I would care if it was a vehicle I liked.

They're the main reason why my wife won't let me trade our minivan in on a crossover. She loves the sliding doors.