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Tesla Sales Soaring, Competition Failing

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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 10:53 AM
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Default Tesla Sales Soaring, Competition Failing

Summary

Tesla reaches No. 4 best selling passenger car in the US and should pass Toyota Camry in Q4 to become the No. 1 selling passenger car in the US.

Tesla has ~90% of the US EV market space.

Tesla deliveries in Q3 are double the deliveries in Q2.

Tesla sales are projected to grow from $4B last quarter to $6.78B this quarter. Net profit in Q3 is likely.

Legacy auto companies may suffer an unexpectedly rapid collapse in sales. This collapse may already be underway.
Link to the main article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211882-tesla-sales-soaring-competition-failing

I was pretty shocked by this graph, didn't realize they were able to ship so many Model 3's in September. (Just noticed it said estimate, but even if we give a 10% variance, its still pretty shocking)


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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 11:03 AM
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of course a ton of that volume is just filling years of back orders and the musk hype train.
let's see how it's doing in 6 months. but still impressive.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 12:00 PM
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Whats there not to like about the model 3? Fairly cheap, looks great, and is an EV. Hopefully this will get all the other manufacturers to churn out a great looking full EV.

Last edited by theory816; Oct 16, 2018 at 12:05 PM.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 12:35 PM
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If Model 3 sales continue like this, then TMC better get their BEV out quickly.
Despite using electric turbos in F1 racing, and Benz's in-line six, no wonder few manufacturers are focusing on electric turbos.
TMC is right to not focus much on plug-in hybrids either.
Hydrogen fuel cell powered electric has almost come to a halt, and will play second fiddle for those who travel long distances.

Full battery powered electric is just around the corner.
Charging is slow, while high speed charging causes more rapid battery degradation, however for most motorists, most trips are short, and more frequent daily top up charging is used as opposed to traditional fill ups once a week.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 01:43 PM
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Honestly I'm disgusted Toyota hasn't offered some competition to fight the model 3. I want an EV, but not a Tesla. Why did Chevy make the bolt the ugliest car of the world? You hear that Chevy? "Your the reason this is happening!!!!"
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 02:53 PM
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I wonder how much the cost would be if one were to have a fender bender that damaged the operational components?
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 03:04 PM
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The Model 3 Is ugly and the interior is past the level of boring however you can't beat the price that's being offered for it. It's not a car for me but I understand why people want it.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by theory816
Whats there not to like about the model 3? Fairly cheap, looks great, and is an EV. Hopefully this will get all the other manufacturers to churn out a great looking full EV.
Looks great? I don't see how can anyone say that hideous ugly car looks even okay, it is ugly inside and out. It is not fairly cheap, it is actually pretty expensive for what you get, nobody is getting them for 35K. EV is mark against it in my opinion. I think this is mostly filling back orders and the new trendy car for a bunch of California buyers. I doubt it will retain anywhere near these sales, especially with all the issues it has been having.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by jwong77
Link to the main article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211882-tesla-sales-soaring-competition-failing

I was pretty shocked by this graph, didn't realize they were able to ship so many Model 3's in September. (Just noticed it said estimate, but even if we give a 10% variance, its still pretty shocking)

so is this something like Tesla bull writing up a story for Tesla stock to go up?

I mean it is super stupid to write how Model 3 is killing Corolla or Accord....


Legacy auto companies may suffer an unexpectedly rapid collapse in sales. This collapse may already be underway.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by UDel
Looks great? I don't see how can anyone say that hideous ugly car looks even okay, it is ugly inside and out. It is not fairly cheap, it is actually pretty expensive for what you get, nobody is getting them for 35K. EV is mark against it in my opinion. I think this is mostly filling back orders and the new trendy car for a bunch of California buyers. I doubt it will retain anywhere near these sales, especially with all the issues it has been having.
Tesla will continue to sell each one it makes for foreseeable future since they did not even start them shipping outside US yet.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by shadow1118
Honestly I'm disgusted Toyota hasn't offered some competition to fight the model 3. I want an EV, but not a Tesla. Why did Chevy make the bolt the ugliest car of the world? You hear that Chevy? "Your the reason this is happening!!!!"
A good read on this David Pogue article explains the tesla position and how dealers (read: any petrol company) are trying to protect themselves:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cant-...161318245.html

Answer #1: Franchise laws
Answer #2: Protectionism

No wonder Tesla had to come up with some creative sales methods and global deployment of supercharger stations over the past 5+ years. Tesla defined a sexy looking car unlike the Volt (which failed on its first beauty contest, and it was too late for any sexy appeal the 2nd time around (2016 later)).

Buyers were there for the Volt but Chevy was not ready to produce any significant volume. Only Tesla had the ambition to do what was necessary with little or no help (gigafactory, supercharger network, scaled up manufacturing to meet demand that was not conceivable a year ago).

A backlog of more than 250,000+ cars is a great problem and buyers were patient for it.

When was the last time a 'new' car had that kind of reception? Tesla totally disrupts the normal "build to dealership lot and let dealers take over sales" model. Is this the new way of car buying? (build a backlog of orders, when certain milestones are met -- the car is in production). To put it into perspective with regard to Lexus GS350 -- the 3rd generation and 4th generation mfg cycle is about 125k cars over 7-8 years each generation. That's 14-15 freaking years of build and find buyers sales. Car buyers want hot and sexy now and Tesla is delivering a new car experience from purchase to ownership around the franchise laws and protectionism difficulties in place.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by All4Lexus
When was the last time a 'new' car had that kind of reception? Tesla totally disrupts the normal "build to dealership lot and let dealers take over sales" model. Is this the new way of car buying? (build a backlog of orders, when certain milestones are met -- the car is in production). To put it into perspective with regard to Lexus GS350 -- the 3rd generation and 4th generation mfg cycle is about 125k cars over 7-8 years each generation. That's 14-15 freaking years of build and find buyers sales. Car buyers want hot and sexy now and Tesla is delivering a new car experience from purchase to ownership around the franchise laws and protectionism difficulties in place.
yeah for realz... new way of running a car company will be losing billions, failing to meet your own deadlines, have huge quality control issues. Yep, that is it.

Heck lets throw building your own car transport trucks since you can deliver 20k cars per month in the USA without problems, and lets also blame it on someone else.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by bitkahuna
of course a ton of that volume is just filling years of back orders and the musk hype train.
let's see how it's doing in 6 months. but still impressive.
On the flip side I saw a lot of people saying 10's of thousands would bail and demand their deposits back. The Model 3 it is a unique offering in the market the car is extremely fast, efficient, doesn't look like a bashed in jelly bean. There is nothing out there like it except the Model S I think Tesla will continue to sell as many as they can make for the next 2+ years.

I share the sentiment of others very disappointed Toyota doesn't have a BEV.
Originally Posted by spwolf
yeah for realz... new way of running a car company will be losing billions, failing to meet your own deadlines, have huge quality control issues. Yep, that is it.
Short sighted thinking.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by spwolf
so is this something like Tesla bull writing up a story for Tesla stock to go up?

I mean it is super stupid to write how Model 3 is killing Corolla or Accord....
Totally agree, it seems the author has something to gain if Tesla stock goes up. Nothing in the article supports the assertion that ICE manufactures will go out of business or fail because of the success of the Model 3.
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by UDel
Looks great? I don't see how can anyone say that hideous ugly car looks even okay, it is ugly inside and out. It is not fairly cheap, it is actually pretty expensive for what you get, nobody is getting them for 35K. EV is mark against it in my opinion. I think this is mostly filling back orders and the new trendy car for a bunch of California buyers. I doubt it will retain anywhere near these sales, especially with all the issues it has been having.
lol did you forget who you're replying to?
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