EVs 'worthless within 5 years'
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EVs 'worthless within 5 years'
http://www.autocar.co.uk/News/NewsAr...aspx?AR=250525
The car valuation experts at Glass’s Guide have warned that, unless manufacturers take action soon, electric cars will suffer horrendous depreciation on the used market.
“If cars and batteries are sold rather than leased, and no special warranty cover is in place, the typical EV will retain only 10 per cent of its value after five years,” warns Andy Carroll, managing director of Glass’s.
This, says Carroll, is a function of the recognition that a typical EV battery will have a useful life of eight years and cost £8000 to replace.
By Glass’s reckoning, Nissan’s Leaf — available next year at around £23,350 — will be worth less than £3000 at five years old. That would make its purchase hard to justify next to a conventional car, which would be worth at least 25 per cent of its value at the same age.
As well as a purchase option, Nissan will offer a lease option to UK buyers which could avoid the depreciation issue, but it has yet to announce details.
However, take batteries out of the ownership equation, for example as Renault suggests via a £100-a-month lease scheme, and the costs could be offset against savings in petrol or diesel.
That way, Glass’s say, EVs could become the best-performing cars on the road in terms of residual value.
“If cars and batteries are sold rather than leased, and no special warranty cover is in place, the typical EV will retain only 10 per cent of its value after five years,” warns Andy Carroll, managing director of Glass’s.
This, says Carroll, is a function of the recognition that a typical EV battery will have a useful life of eight years and cost £8000 to replace.
By Glass’s reckoning, Nissan’s Leaf — available next year at around £23,350 — will be worth less than £3000 at five years old. That would make its purchase hard to justify next to a conventional car, which would be worth at least 25 per cent of its value at the same age.
As well as a purchase option, Nissan will offer a lease option to UK buyers which could avoid the depreciation issue, but it has yet to announce details.
However, take batteries out of the ownership equation, for example as Renault suggests via a £100-a-month lease scheme, and the costs could be offset against savings in petrol or diesel.
That way, Glass’s say, EVs could become the best-performing cars on the road in terms of residual value.
Lexus Champion
Joined: Apr 2005
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From: MO
A serious issue. It makes the car almost impossible to resell after 3-5 years. Who'd want to buy it used knowing that the battery is on its last leg? I agree... they need to put some sort of cost-effective battery replacement process in place at the outset.
Lexus Test Driver
Joined: Nov 2009
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From: somewhere out there
This makes sense in theory, because the cost of a replacement battery would be as high as the cost of most 5 year old cars in that class.
But resale is based on supply and demand, and if demand is high even with the cost of a battery, prices may stay high
But resale is based on supply and demand, and if demand is high even with the cost of a battery, prices may stay high
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: May 2003
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From: Massachusetts
Certainly a serious issue that needs resolving if EV's are going to become mainstream.
OK, so someone has to pay for battery replacements. But is it fair that the automaker has to pay for it thereby making it impossible to profit from EV's? This would guarantee that EV's aren't even offered. At the same time, it will be hard to get people to buy vehicle's with an expensive time bomb on board. And don't suggest that our bankrupt government can subsidize them. Please. Plus that would just mean that we all have to pay for the batteries even if we choose conventional cars.
OK, so someone has to pay for battery replacements. But is it fair that the automaker has to pay for it thereby making it impossible to profit from EV's? This would guarantee that EV's aren't even offered. At the same time, it will be hard to get people to buy vehicle's with an expensive time bomb on board. And don't suggest that our bankrupt government can subsidize them. Please. Plus that would just mean that we all have to pay for the batteries even if we choose conventional cars.
Out of Warranty
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 14,925
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From: Houston, Republic of Texas
The cost of replacing the battery should come down as more batteries appear in the market and a viable market emerges for recycling them. It's going to take a lot of product out there to make manufacturing and even re-manufacturing profitable at some reasonable price - say 10% of the vehicle's value at 5-10 years - or about the cost of replacing a gas engine in that time frame.
Like an Iphone or plasma TV, that's the just the cost of being an early adopter. . .
Like an Iphone or plasma TV, that's the just the cost of being an early adopter. . .
Lexus Fanatic
Joined: Oct 2003
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From: Virginia/D.C. suburbs
“If cars and batteries are sold rather than leased, and no special warranty cover is in place, the typical EV will retain only 10 per cent of its value after five years,” warns Andy Carroll, managing director of Glass’s.
Last edited by mmarshall; Jun 22, 2010 at 08:10 PM.
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Lexus Fanatic
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From: Virginia/D.C. suburbs
Lexus Fanatic
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From: Los Angeles/Vancouver
this article is written with reference to the older battery technology
here is an example of a proven and advanced battery technology that is ready for the new generation of EV's.
http://www.boston-power.com/products/swing-4400
also remember when prius first came out, people had the same concern?
it turns out the batteries in the prius lasted much longer than originally expected
and the vancouver's case of prius taxi:
granted that isnt using the battery continuously for 3~5 years but with taxi's heavy usage, it does prove itself that batteries dont just die that quickly (or have shortened life span with greatly compromised holding capacity)
auto engineers all know that the holding capacity, calendar life span, heat, weight, dimensions, density, discharge rate, rapid charging rate...etc are all critical factors in EVs and hybrids
and battery companies are continuously developing new technologies to answer those challenges
what we are speculating now are all preliminary until the auto companies have found the holy grail for the battery and the real full line up of EVs become mass produced vehicles and
here is an example of a proven and advanced battery technology that is ready for the new generation of EV's.
http://www.boston-power.com/products/swing-4400
Industry-leading cycle life:
Over 1000 cycles at 100% Depth Of Discharge (DOD)
Over 2000 cycles at 90% DOD
Over 1000 cycles at 100% Depth Of Discharge (DOD)
Over 2000 cycles at 90% DOD
Swing’s extended cycle and calendar life and high energy density make it 20-50% more efficient in system weight and space compared to existing solutions.
it turns out the batteries in the prius lasted much longer than originally expected
and the vancouver's case of prius taxi:
For almost five years, I have operated three Toyota Priuses as a Yellow Cab--with no failures. The first Prius, a 2001 model, was put on the road Nov. 1, 2000, and acquired 200,000 miles in 25 months. The components that did wear out were not hybrid related components. The current 2004 Prius that is on as a Yellow Cab in Vancouver B.C. Canada just passed 240,000 miles and still no major repairs.
auto engineers all know that the holding capacity, calendar life span, heat, weight, dimensions, density, discharge rate, rapid charging rate...etc are all critical factors in EVs and hybrids
and battery companies are continuously developing new technologies to answer those challenges
what we are speculating now are all preliminary until the auto companies have found the holy grail for the battery and the real full line up of EVs become mass produced vehicles and
Lead Lap
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 4,534
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From: MD
Except for the advantage of Li-Ion batteries over Ni-Mh is that they have value even after they are "dead". Thus, you wouldnt be paying for a replacement battery from nothing.
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