We are paying 4.30 to 4.50 for premium in NoCal right now. Let's put it this way, what do you think you have a better chance of seeing first, premium under $2.50 a gallon or over $6.50 a gallon? I think 6 to $7 dollar a gallon is a long shot for two years but possible. And will it mean the end of civilization as we know it? Nope. Will places like HI have a problem, yep.

The reason I keep posting the for the Lexus dedicated fuel milage hybrid in 2010, two years from now, is because I can't believe all they can do right now to get a Lexus mileage hybrid is float a rumor for two years. No sense rehashing some of the other poor Lexus decisions in this area but for goodness sake, pull the finger out. As for the price of oil based fuels, there may be spikes but the trendline is inevitable.

 

I think the chances of under $3.00 a gallon are zero. I just don't think the general US population is truly ready and aware of what $6-$7 a gallon of fuel cost actually means. I'm not rich, but I'm a little better off than your average American household. I'll feel a pinch and perhaps have to adjust here and there when gas becomes $6-$7 a gallon at the norm, but the average household unless they prepare for it will not be able to just make a simple adjustment and survive IMHO. I think a lot of people are going to go broke and eventually start loosing their house because they wont be able to pay.

Think about it. If people are scraping buy now with fuel cost at $4.00, at $6 a gallon it will be worse, especially when milk now cost $15 a gallon, bread cost $10 a loaf, eggs cost whatever more a dozen, jeans cost how much more. The airline just tacked on $120 something fuel surcharge on the tickets. What will everyday consumer costs be when gas goes up another $3-$4 a gallon?

 

Lexus is not one to jump the gun. Historically they have more home runs than singles/doubles/triples.

I am sure there is extensive intense research going on to decide the best course of action.

 

I absolutely respect your opinion and I understand how you can have it. I spent an extended amount of time in Europe and particularly England about 30 years ago. Seeing what happened in Europe, particularly related to cars is, in my opinion, what is going to happen here. I spent a wonderful Sunday in Germany watching boat traffic on the Danube from a restaurant sun deck. What helped this Heidi moment? It was during one of the oil hiccups and there was no driving permitted on Sunday in Germany. None, nada, nobody went anywhere by car. You walked to wherever you wanted to go or you didn't go. I am not saying that is what we are headed for, and I can make some rationalizations (The US is staggering in size compared to European countries) but we are probably headed for a big change.

But I don't see the change as being apocalyptic. Maybe that is because I still see just as many big pickups and SUVs on the road here at $4+ as I saw at 2$/gal. Now maybe these people are driving less but the freeways are still full of single occupant pickups and women in gargantuan SUVs. They have a lot they can do to economize in their fuel bill rather than start the revolution. People will have to adjust. The days of loading a family of four or five in some 5,000lb tank for a lap of National Parks is probably going to be over. We just really haven't seen the start yet IMO.

Just like Europe I think you are going to see a renewal of the hatchback and a bunch of small engines. We actually have people on this site, OK, maybe they are still in middle school, who look down on 300hp V6s. Well, 300hp anything may get pretty rare. And if you need the space, real or imagined, well you may just be out of luck unless you are willing to pay for it. If you really need that Nissan Titan to go offroading at Home Depot three times a year, you might want to get one quick. I feel a lot more sorry for other people. I have a mother in law in a wheel chair and that isn't such a fun thing to get into a small car. I have a bad back and I will very likely have to decide to spend more on fuel to be able to have a vehicle that 1) doesn't drive me to the narcotics locker with ride or seat and 2) has the right dimensions for me to get into the doggoned thing. I would much rather have the bucks and save the gas but I don't think a Miata is in my future anymore.

I am rambling but fundamentally I don't have the feeling that our runup in oil is mainly fueled by a one time event. Sure there is speculation but the price of oil isn't heading for any 50% collapse. I am not sure we disagree on that. Now, will the fact that this is going to be a real burden on people, especially those in lower economic classes or in places like HI, make oil quit going up? Man, I really don't think so. My point about the walk down memory lane is that people may just have to start living nearer where they work and the vehicles they will be able to afford to operate will still be expensive to take anywhere of significant distance. And I don't see any automotive technology delivered in quantity in the next two to maybe five years that is going to alter that much. If you need or plain old want a big, high hp car (and now is a great time to be shopping for it), you are going to pay for it. And not just with the checkbook at sale but every three or four days when you feed the monster.

You bring up the impact on the rest of the economy and I certainly can't dismiss it. We have finally gotten to the point where increases in oil and energy are quickly spread to other sectors such as food or transportation. But will the fact that this will be a burden stop the increase? Once again, I don't think so. So you either find a way to pay for what you need or do without. Not a pleasant prospect. I am a genuine old fart on this board but when my folks were alive I remember telling them that they may have well had a better econimic life than I will have. And I will have a better one than a lot of you guys just starting out. I don't think that is due to the price of a barrel of liquified dino remains but we have had too much consumption for too long. So,to bring this back on topic, come on Lexus, get us some comfortable, well serviced Lexus mileage hybrids in something less than two years. Sorry for the hijack.