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MUCH less than a caddy or Lincoln. Lexus controls its production volume so well that "05's are gone by the time '06's arrive without having a fire sale on the '05's. if you are keeping the car a long time go for the '05. If it is for 3-4 years an '06 is probably cheaper in the long run than a year older '05 tho I expect few changes for the '06 430.
There are no "rebates" on LS430's. That's an american econo-box tactic. It reduces the value of every car of that model on the road, therefore Lexus doesn't do it. Lexus doesn't really like discounting their cars at all, but reality says they must in tougher times.
at 6500 off- you are already looking REAL good. I wouldn't push your luck. You do have some possibilities-
1. Call other dealers in other cities or states near you. Ask them what color and options they have and if they have what you want in stock- tell them a price you are trying to match- but they have the color you want- something like that... Just bargain.
2. In Texas LFS has something called Tax Credits where instead of 8.125% sales tax you only pay .125%. This saves another 3-4 thousand. I have NO idea if other states do this. It is only available on some cars and some finance plans. You CANNOT do it on a lease over 48 months.