Not even a guess? C'mon, I wont hold you to it.

 

Probably as well as ever. Most of us on these forums are enthusiasts, and very particular about our cars. But we are a tiny fraction of all ES350 buyers. I think most past/ current ES350 fans will buy the Gen 8 regardless of looks.
One example would be Lexus dropping the V6 from the RX350, and going with a turbo 4. Despite the grumblings from many of us on this site, I don’t think sales have suffered one bit.

 

I posted above ES sales have dropped 40% over the last ten years. Consistently dropping every year.

 

We'll see in a year or so, but I don’t think the powertrain is the real issue. The design is the concern, it no longer exudes luxury IMHO. I expect users will likely shift toward the NX or RX instead.

 

lexus.co.uk

 

Lexus was careful to avoid radical changes with the latest gen RX (smart move knowing they have a good thing already) and most RX buyers couldn't care less what's under the hood.

 

Yup. The new/current gen. RX is an absolute upgrade vs all previous gen RX ever been created, I had a chance to drive all RXs from 2000s, 2010s and 2016-2022, all of them are far away from this current 2023+ RX, in and out, up and down.
The current 7th gen ES is the best looking ES ever, hand down, drivability? some may say the last gen is as good if not better, but I think 7th gen ES is an absolute peak of a Toyota/Lexus front-wheel affordable mass-produced lux sedan, you can't do any better.
8th ES I'm not sure but the initial look is scaring away at least 50% of current ES owners (source: trust me bro)

 

What’s the drop in sedan sales in general over the last ten years? Probably around 40%. My point is I think it’s unlikely there will be a drastic drop in ES sales 2025 vs. 2026.

 

It’s too early to tell, as various factors will come into play. First, will be there or will there not be tariffs in place (and how high), as the next gen will be made in Japan. Secondly, is this redesign too much for the traditional ES buyers? I’m sure the car will still be comfortable enough to drive/ride in, but will (1) the exterior be too polarizing to deter buyers? (2) will the interior be too minimalistic for a generally more traditional, conservative buyer market? (I don’t think “young people” will flock to this a some suggest - “it’s my granddad’d car”) So far it looks too cold and bland to me and not what I would call luxurious, certainly not more so than a Toyota (so why not just get a Camry or a Crown?). Sitting in the car will be a big test for potential buyers. (3) will the added length make it even more difficult for older drivers to maneuver and park than the current model? (4) How many buyers will the demise of the V6 deter? Certainly some, but to be honest people across brand lines people are accepting 4-cylinders whether they really like them or not, as many people just couldn’t care less what’s under the hood. How it drives will matter, is it quiet enough, smooth enough, etc., especially in comparison to the competition. (5) Will this new gen move the traditional ES buyers to the RX/NX to stay in brand or will they just move to Genesis or MB, for instance?

In short, a lot of questions. I do think there will be at least some drop, perhaps substantial - but again, it’s still too early to tell. It will have to be seen in person.

 

Great points and agree. I still think in a category sedans that sales are plummeting anyway (Lexus 20% sales from sedans ES sales down 40% over the last ten years) it is a marketing nightmare to do a redesign on a vehicle whose target market is upper middle to older buyers and you come up with this exterior and interior. It reminds me of Bud Light targets an audience with Mulvaney who doesn't buy beer and insult your buying demographic.

 

When do YouTubers and others get a hands feel on the 8th generation?

Will it be close to a year?

 

Suppose to debut March of 2026 so my guess they will have access to review in the fall.

 

Possibly later this year like August-September (I think).

 

I looked into the Acura, I loved how it had a V6 pushing 350 plus HP, nice interior etc.

But it had reported prohlems i just couldn't look past. The Acura brand of yesterday isn't the same as today.

 

Unless you have a home charger, any charging stations maybe absent Tesla is a hit and miss.

I watched a few videos of folks going cross country and the only reliable station was Tesla.