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Tesla uses a unique chemistry, cell arrangement and battery management making degradation a non issue I guess some people have a hard time accepting that. On storage reduction over time/mileage an ICE has the same problem as it wears mileage and power go down. And you have to worry about engine oil changes, transmission failures, exhaust systems rotting out, emissions system issues which can be very costly on some models.
No so much a hard time accepting, but the need to accept a claim substantiated by"independent"real life long term on-road evidence - as opposed to the manufacturer's laboratory tested claims.
Manufacturers often use "accelerated" & "simulated" long term data, as opposed to real life real time data - which is not yet available.
In the YouTube video above, there is only a few years of real on-road data for Tesla battery degradation/longevity, yet the presenter talks in a biased tone - as though he is 100% sure of the positive outcome in 8-10 years time.
I don't want to be the opposite of him, and make out that the Tesla won't last that long either.
I just want real on-road data for battery degradation/longevity.
In another 8 years, we'll all really know if Tesla is true to their battery degradation/longevity claims.
As it stands, this is what happens to the 3.6 Volt lithium ion batteries in our flashlights.
Notice the rapid fall in battery capacity with age indicated by the yellow arrow below.
Presently, the real on-road data available for Tesla battery degradation is only a few years in duration at best.
Last edited by peteharvey; Jun 28, 2019 at 05:10 PM.
No so much a hard time accepting, but the need to accept a claim substantiated by"independent"real life long term on-road evidence - as opposed to the manufacturer's laboratory tested claims.
Manufacturers often use "accelerated" & "simulated" long term data, as opposed to real life real time data - which is not yet available.
In the YouTube video above, there is only a few years of real on-road data for Tesla battery degradation/longevity, yet the presenter talks in a biased tone - as though he is 100% sure of the positive outcome in 8-10 years time.
I don't want to be the opposite of him, and make out that the Tesla won't last that long either.
I just want real on-road data for battery degradation/longevity.
In another 8 years, we'll all really know if Tesla is true to their battery degradation/longevity claims.
As it stands, this is what happens to the 3.6 Volt lithium ion batteries in our flashlights.
Notice the rapid fall in battery capacity with age indicated by the yellow arrow below.
Presently, the real on-road data available for Tesla battery degradation is only a few years in duration at best.
Your Volt data has isn't related to the Tesla batteries. They have different chemical composition and different battery management systems. I understand you want real time data but you must also purge any bias you had coming in because they are not the same. We will see in a couple more years on how the Model S batteries are faring.
On another note, the BMW electric cars are utter garbage. Yes, some of my friends have them and complete garbage.
i think bmw says electrification is overhyped because tesla has most likely eaten into a lot of bmw sales.
Ding ding ding!
The writing's on the wall: electric cars are the future. Even BMW agrees. They are just stating that it will take more time for the transition to happen since it will take time for them to make that large scale change! And in the meantime they still have to sell ICE vehicles and convince buyers that these new cars won't be outdated for some time.
Those that don't agree will continue to engage in pointless pontificating on dying car forums.
Tesla uses a unique chemistry, cell arrangement and battery management making degradation a non issue I guess some people have a hard time accepting that. On storage reduction over time/mileage an ICE has the same problem as it wears mileage and power go down. And you have to worry about engine oil changes, transmission failures, exhaust systems rotting out, emissions system issues which can be very costly on some models.
A properly maintained ICE car has very little loss in power/mileage, especially a modern ICE car, nowhere near the same as a battery powered car. There is no such thing as a battery that does not lose power/capacity over time, Tesla's are still heavily affected by cold temps, hard acceleration too. With modern fluids you don't have to worry as much about oil changes, trans failures are rare, rare for exhaust systems to rot out, emissions rarely a issue with modern cars.
A properly maintained ICE car has very little loss in power/mileage, especially a modern ICE car, nowhere near the same as a battery powered car. There is no such thing as a battery that does not lose power/capacity over time, Tesla's are still heavily affected by cold temps, hard acceleration too. With modern fluids you don't have to worry as much about oil changes, trans failures are rare, rare for exhaust systems to rot out, emissions rarely a issue with modern cars.
Losing capacity over time and being impacted by cold / hard acceleration are two different things. The car will have 80-90% capacity in 8 years depending on your charging pattern. The capacity is not dependent on whether you live in a cold climate or whether you've driven the card hard with a lot of aggressive acceleration.
Cold and hard driving impact your range only. In fact if you redline an ICE car at every opportunity, it will fare far worse than an electric car doing full throttle at every opportunity. The stress on the Tesla at full throttle feels barely different than it at half or quarter throttle. The drivetrain simply isn't all that much stressed at high acceleration due to electric motor simplicity.
Tesla uses a unique chemistry, cell arrangement and battery management making degradation a non issue I guess some people have a hard time accepting that. On storage reduction over time/mileage an ICE has the same problem as it wears mileage and power go down. And you have to worry about engine oil changes, transmission failures, exhaust systems rotting out, emissions system issues which can be very costly on some models.
Originally Posted by UDel
A properly maintained ICE car has very little loss in power/mileage, especially a modern ICE car, nowhere near the same as a battery powered car. There is no such thing as a battery that does not lose power/capacity over time, Tesla's are still heavily affected by cold temps, hard acceleration too. With modern fluids you don't have to worry as much about oil changes, trans failures are rare, rare for exhaust systems to rot out, emissions rarely a issue with modern cars.
A modern ICE BMW and Tesla only care about how reliable is the vehicle in the first 4 years and the first owner. In that time, BMW offers free maintenance, and tesla has zero traditional maintenance. The only failure they probably share is anything electrical. Teslas headunits and drive units. BMW ECMs failing in true old fashion. battery degradation and ICE engine wear losses are about the same; both are a non issue. And for argument sakes, Model 3s comes with a 70% battery retention guarantee aka 8 years OR 120k miles.
For a traditional BMW new car owner, a Tesla really comes down to price, lease pricing, personal tastes, and whether or not if they are willing wait indefinite amounts of time when they need body shop service (*cough cough TFL*)
No so much a hard time accepting, but the need to accept a claim substantiated by"independent"real life long term on-road evidence - as opposed to the manufacturer's laboratory tested claims.
Manufacturers often use "accelerated" & "simulated" long term data, as opposed to real life real time data - which is not yet available.
In the YouTube video above, there is only a few years of real on-road data for Tesla battery degradation/longevity, yet the presenter talks in a biased tone - as though he is 100% sure of the positive outcome in 8-10 years time.
I don't want to be the opposite of him, and make out that the Tesla won't last that long either.
I just want real on-road data for battery degradation/longevity.
In another 8 years, we'll all really know if Tesla is true to their battery degradation/longevity claims.
As it stands, this is what happens to the 3.6 Volt lithium ion batteries in our flashlights.
Notice the rapid fall in battery capacity with age indicated by the yellow arrow below.
Presently, the real on-road data available for Tesla battery degradation is only a few years in duration at best.
Respectfully, i don’t think comparing charge cycles of a flashlight with days of use on a Tesla is meaningful. The tesla chart goes out just over 5 years with very little degradation. I know your flashlight graph drops like a rock after around 1100 charges, but then even if they were comparable it would depend how often someone is recharging their Tesla. Some people may only need to charge them once a week, and 1100 charges at once a week is 21 years!
I’m sure Tesla in house has automated the simulation of a ton of actual battery pack charge/discharge cycles which may not be exactly real world but it gives them a lot of confidence.
But if you want to wait 8 years to see what happens, that’s your choice of course.
Respectfully, i don’t think comparing charge cycles of a flashlight with days of use on a Tesla is meaningful. The tesla chart goes out just over 5 years with very little degradation. I know your flashlight graph drops like a rock after around 1100 charges, but then even if they were comparable it would depend how often someone is recharging their Tesla. Some people may only need to charge them once a week, and 1100 charges at once a week is 21 years!
I’m sure Tesla in house has automated the simulation of a ton of actual battery pack charge/discharge cycles which may not be exactly real world but it gives them a lot of confidence.
But if you want to wait 8 years to see what happens, that’s your choice of course.
There are many different types of lithium ion batteries.
I did say that the first graph only applies to typical 18650 flashlight batteries.
I was too lazy to find a battery degradation/capacity over time graph, so I used a battery degradation/capacity over cycles graph.
Here is a Tesla independent battery degradation/capacity over cycles graph to match the flashlight graph.
The sample number must be high to be accurate.
With the independent real time [2nd] graph below, only the first 300-400 cycles are known at best, because after that, the sample number really falls.
We can take Tesla's word for it.
Or we can wait till independent test data is surveyed in real time.
From here, there are two basic options:
1) Be an early adopter, and purchase the Tesla EV now, and accept the:
a) Overall higher prices.
b) Interiors designed & produced by a company with little previous experience with interiors.
c) Long term reliability/durability designed & produced by a company with little experience in creating benchmark durability unlike Toyota Motor Corp.
d) Don't mind waiting a few months for a few replacement parts etc.
2) Sit back, enjoy your refined fossil fuelled ICEV's, wait till EV technology becomes more refined, and then go for the jugular.
For example, back in 1999, the pioneering dSLR Nikon D1 was $5,000 and had only 2.7 rubbish MP that you'd laugh off today.
Today, a Sony mirrorless A7R III is far better quality at 42 MP, but is only say $2,800.
Presently, early adopter or not - both choices are good.
It just depends what we individually want right now...
.
Last edited by peteharvey; Jun 29, 2019 at 06:44 PM.
There are many different types of lithium ion batteries.
I was too lazy to find a battery degradation/capacity over time graph, so I used a battery degradation/capacity over cycles graph.
Here is a Tesla independent battery degradation/capacity over cycles graph to match.
The sample number must be high to be accurate.
Hence the real time graph below, only the first 300-400 cycles are known at best, because the sample number really falls.
From here, there are two basic options:
1) Be an early adopter, and purchase the Tesla EV technology now, and accept the:
a) Overall higher prices,
b) Interiors with little previous experience in designing interiors,
c) Long term reliability/durability with little experience in creating benchmark durability unlike Toyota Motor Corp,
d) Don't mind waiting a few months for a few replacement parts etc.
2) Sit back, enjoy your refined fossil fuelled ICEV's, and wait till EV technology becomes more refined.
For example, back in 1999, the pioneering dSLR Nikon D1 was $5,000 and had only 2.7 MP.
Today, a Sony mirrorless A7R III is far better quality at 42 MP, but is only say $2,800.
Presently, both choices are good.
It just depends what we individually want right now...
You only give the negatives of owning the EV. The positives are an expected lower cost of ownership. Only the initial purchase price may be higher. Also much higher performance in the same class. You also get way better tech that Lexus just doesn't offer such as autopilot, Sentry security mode, and better infotainment system.
The other negative of Tesla is interior quality. Rattles. *sigh*
You only give the negatives of owning the EV. The positives are an expected lower cost of ownership. Only the initial purchase price may be higher. Also much higher performance in the same class. You also get way better tech that Lexus just doesn't offer such as autopilot, Sentry security mode, and better infotainment system.
The other negative of Tesla is interior quality. Rattles. *sigh*
Originally Posted by peteharvey
From here, there are two basic options:
1) Be an early adopter, and purchase the Tesla EV now, and accept the:
a) Overall higher prices.
b) Interiors designed & produced by a company with little previous experience with interiors.
c) Long term reliability/durability designed & produced by a company with little experience in creating benchmark durability unlike Toyota Motor Corp.
d) Don't mind waiting a few months for a few replacement parts etc.
2) Sit back, enjoy your refined fossil fuelled ICEV's, wait till EV technology becomes more refined, and then go for the jugular.
For example, back in 1999, the pioneering dSLR Nikon D1 was $5,000 and had only 2.7 rubbish MP that you'd laugh off today.
Today, a Sony mirrorless A7R III is far better quality at 42 MP, but is only say $2,800.
Presently, early adopter or not - both choices are good.
It just depends what we individually want right now...
I've actually only compared Early Adopter to Late Adopter - without going into specific details.
I've clearly said that BOTH are good choices.
It just boils down to personal/individual preferences...
BMW is VERY serious about EVs - they even hired the famous movie composer Hans Zimmer to create the sound for their EV cars!
Their current EVs (i3 and i8) have been failures.
Most ppl don’t want hybrids or EVs.
Tesla is also in trouble and no longer has backlog of sales orders.
ICE engines are still the future especially with oil prices continuing to decrease. If it wasn’t for the negative politics of Environmentalists, nobody would care about EVs.
All I know is the following beasts are still coming with big V8s:
Shelby GT500
mid-engine Corvette
LC-F
Tesla is also in trouble and no longer has backlog of sales orders.
tesla will likely ship 80k+ vehicles this quarter. That’s incredible. They may make a small profit, but i’d say it’s doubtful, but regardless, that’s a ton of vehicles.
If it wasn’t for the negative politics of Environmentalists, nobody would care about EVs.
I think you might be right on that, but it is what it is.
All I know is the following beasts are still coming with big V8s:
Shelby GT500
mid-engine Corvette
LC-F
Long live the petrol engine!
And the Shelby and LC-F will probably sell less than 1000 in a year combined. Nice that they’re available though.
tesla will likely ship 80k+ vehicles this quarter. That’s incredible. They may make a small profit, but i’d say it’s doubtful, but regardless, that’s a ton of vehicles.
I know I've said this before, but this just is one more sign that, even with a large volume of vehicles in production, the fact that a profit is still doubtful shows that the company simply keeps biting off more than it can chew with its policy of company-owned/company-operated everything, and no private franchises. Bob Lutz stated, in an article for Road & Track magazine, that the idea of company-ownership of everything has never worked on a significant scale in the history of automobiles. Even Henry Ford, whose company owned not just the auto plants but the steel-making plants, rubber-plantations for tires, cargo ships for the Great Lakes, and other facilities involved in auto production, allowed private dealer franchises.
) and they were pretty dismal...
