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Looking Up and Down the Road: a 70-year Perspective

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Old 07-10-17, 11:09 AM
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Lightbulb Looking Up and Down the Road: a 70-year Perspective

After talking with friends this past week about our first cars, I began to think where our present day automobiles will be - and more important - what the driving experience will be for our grandchildren some sixty years from now. OK, there is an emerging self-driving feature that may end up on our major Interstates, but that was proposed back in the mid-fifties (by GM in it's regular "Futurama" auto shows) and it's still not fully adaptable. Why? As a species, we're not quite to the point that we're willing to turn everything including our pink little bodies over to "George" (the aviator's old term for the autopilot, as in "Let George do it"). Probably more important, not every country road or backwoods fire trail will have the requisite markings or even the standardized lane widths to make a self-driving car practical. At some point, you are going to need a steering wheel and a brake in the cabin in order to navigate some roads - even your own driveway.

So what has been our technological experience over the past sixty years, and what will our grandkids think of driving a car over the next 60-70 years? What will be the major changes? Looking at those old "Futurama" shows, that paleofuture looks pretty silly in the light of reality, so we can say with certainty that we can't really predict technology from this range, but let's give it some thought. First, as if to prove that our vision is unclear, here's what the designers of 1958 thought we'd be driving by now:



Really? We're no closer to the Jetson's flying car now than we were in '58 - but looking back at the changes a few of us have experienced over the past 60 or 70 years, what can we realistically expect of the future? What will the driving experience be like by 2060 or 2080?

Engines:
We know the internal combustion engine is probably on its way out. Although there are a myriad of alternative fueled ICEs on the horizon, electrics are coming, like it or not. Where once we heard the howl of a carbureted engine sucking in the atmosphere, and converting gasoline to thunder, with the unique crackle on the overrun as the mixture briefly runs rich as you lift for a corner, dumping over-rich mixture into the exhaust producing detonation of fuel in the exhaust manifold and flames from the exhaust stacks. Even today's tightly controlled ECM programs won't allow that auditory experience that is wasteful of fuel, better controlling the mixture and valve timing for efficiency and creating a no-fun zone in the middle of your driving experience. Just wait, it's going to get much worse.

Fuels may be hydrogen fuel cells or maybe there'll be a few old batteries hanging around, but long-distance cruising is going to require something far better than what's available now. Maybe that's more efficient motors, even large-diameter AC hub motors in the driving wheels that will avoid powertrain losses. The exhaust note of the high performance IC engine will be no longer accompany your high-speed adventures - maybe relegated to a setting on your entertainment system that mimics the exhaust note of a Ferrari or a Bugatti playing through your speakers. Meanwhile, outside the car, the sound is going to be a lot different, the hum of electric motors with the backing of the faint gurgle and hiss of hydrogen atoms flowing over a catalyst bed to be stripped of their electrons to feed the wheel motors.

Transmissions:
We've gone from a basic three-speed manual, through various iterations of automatics, from two-speeds to eight or more - now to manu-matics and a variety of paddle-shifted transmissions that range from an ordinary automatic's gear selector with paddles, to dual-clutch transmissions that work reasonably well in racing applications, to "consumer" manu-matics that work more or less well - if you can stand the head-banging ****** of the gear change (as in the Smart car). Is there a real solution to delivering economy and smoothness with any kind of reliability? The jury's still out, but with auto-trannys being pretty inefficient in an age of ultimate fuel efficiency, and we can expect to see more sophisticated auto-shifted manuals - probably in the form of a workable software patch.

At least electric cars won't need transmissions because a typical AC motor can deliver high torque from rest. A shunt-wound DC motor will deliver more torque, but they are large and heavy for their power output, and speed control under variable loads is problematic. AC motors can be smaller for their power ratings, can deliver torque well above their continuous rated power at speed, and respond well to sophisticated motor controllers. Add to that, the ability of an AC induction motor to act as a generator, and you have a way to return power to the battery bank using regenerative braking. It takes a fair amount of controller technology to ideal for automotive use, but our AC motors are getting there.

Suspension:
King posts and sliding sleeve suspensions lived through the 30's and briefly into the '50's. They were truly miserable means of locating the front wheels, but probably no worse than the semi-elliptical cart springs that were previously almost universal. Ford attempted to justify their cheap "twin I-beam" front ends on their light trucks for years, but they provided absolutely miserable location of the front wheels as their lack of articulation exhibited massive camber change over bumps. Drive a Ford pickup, they saying went, better buy stock in Firestone. You're going to eat a lot of front rubber.

We went to wishbones that better located first the front, and later all four wheels with independent suspensions. Coil springs, then coilovers became the hot set-up. MacPherson struts for a while looked like the way to cheap out suspensions because they eliminated one suspension member allowing the upper end of the shock to serve as both the upper member and the pivot - which made for easier packaging in a tight space - and ultimately more space in the cabin. They come with their own set of problems, and they are an inexpensive solution . . . to perhaps a question that nobody asked.

Brakes:
We went from mechanical band brakes on the drive shaft of early cars to drums - first on the rear, later on all four wheels. By the '60's and '70's disc brakes began to appear - at least on the front wheels of trucks and sports cars that needed serious stopping power. Eventually that technology migrated to practically all but the lowest of the lowly econo-cars, drastically improving brake performance, particularly in the wet. If you remember the standard technique of dragging your brakes to dry them after splashing through water, you probably got your license in the '60's. As the speed capability of cars - and speed limits increased - it became painfully obvious, particularly with the dawn of the muscle-car era, that drum brakes - no matter how large - just weren't up to the job. You needed a considerable amount of "whoa" to accompany the increasing "go". Even the motorcycle market went to discs with the beginning of the "big bike" craze, imitating what had been standard equipment for a few years on the racing circuits.

In most medium to full size cars, that means power disc brakes all around today. Discs, despite all their desirable qualities, are incapable of regenerative braking in terms of using the rotation of a drum to expand the shoes within. Discs are a 1:1 proposition, you don't get the benefit of the rotational force actually providing more braking force. If you are of the generations that drove drum-braked cars - particularly those without power boosters - you learned to ease off the pedal as your car reached walking speed - otherwise, the regenerating feature would tighten up so quickly that your front bumper would almost bite the pavement. A jerky, nose-diving stop was not a comfortable proposition for you or your passengers. There are remnants of that technology today to be seen in conventional disk brakes with power boosters. Although discs don't bite harder as speed decreases, the ordinary effects of friction they exhibit can cause an uncomfortable bounce if you don't feather them off as you come to a stop. One day your automatic brakes will take care of that, using your "adaptive" cruise control to measure distance and closing speed.

Today, we're looking at ceramic brakes, carbon fiber pads, and a whole litany of exotic materials for rotors and pads - at this point it's not too practical to put exotic materials on ordinary passenger cars because we don't use them nearly hard enough to get them up to a proper operating temperature where their benefits can be discerned. In fact, most exotic braking materials don't do well in everyday use - for most, they're something of an affectation like putting enormous exhaust tips on an econobox's Panatella-sized tailpipe. It's only going to drain your wallet without producing a tangible result.

Electrics will eliminate most of the need for braking systems, being able to recover energy from "braking" to feed back to the system for acceleration on exit from a corner. For that reason, regenerative braking and lighter vehicles may obviate the need for massive brakes. Look at F1's technology, where conventional brakes as we know them are under minimal stress, the majority of the energy burn-off needed to enter a corner is being recycled to the hybrid's batteries. With sophisticated regen braking systems, the brake pads receive minimal wear . . . unless, as demonstrated at LeMans this year, your wheel motors quit and you still have to stop the car. As this year's endurance race proved, the KISS principle is still with us. But innovation is on the near horizon. As racing spawned overhead cams, multiple valves, independent wishbone suspensions and even the rear-view mirror, brakes will just be another frontier.

Electronic Controls:
Ah, the computer age. Today, your engine is just a peripheral to one, two, or even three networked computer systems within your car - all communicating real time data to processors that maximize engine efficiency, and stop, steer, and brake your car with a maximum of safety. Air induction is monitored for volume, temperature, humidity and throttle setting to select the proper fuel map to ensure that your engine is at the lean end of the stoichiometric profile under all conditions and you are operating with full ecological responsibility at all times. Of course, this is where the fun ends.

Where is this all going? As we approach a time where "driving" becomes a spectator sport, maybe it's time we rode the bus. There's an app for that.

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Old 07-10-17, 04:05 PM
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Liability and the ever-present threat of litigation is probably going to be the biggest roadblock to the development of self-driving cars. Like it or not, trial lawyers basically run the country today....and probably will for some time.
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Old 07-11-17, 05:04 AM
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tastes, I've been hearing over and over that milennials do not care about cars. They seem to have this notion of paying for what they use, and technology makes it possible. Remember when it was amazing to be able to talk to a girlfriend in San Francisco (when you lived in New York), for 5 cents a minute, because you knew the dial around deal? 5 cents a minute, people call overseas for free nowadays (old news but toll bypass/tariffs, today, 1 gb data and 100 talk minutes unlimited incoming texts and 100 out in Canada and Mexico on a cell phone for $25). I'm only looking back 15 years.

Anyway, as mentioned, I had the chance last week to talk to a billionaire, so I brought it up. and yes, confirmed, daughter was offered any car she wanted upon graduation, and she said she doesn't want a car, not interested. So this is someone born 1996. Just imagine someone born 2006, or 2013 like my son. I wouldn't bet the farm on a car dealership, it's going to get harder and harder to keep the lights on imho.

edit: so how is life changing, well, look at the person on track to become the richest man in the world. I see products that I bought for $9.99 last year, for sale at $14.99 today, yet people are very content buying at the higher price. He's flying the products on demand with his own jets. He has couriers in my neighborhood all the way from NYC (90 miles) going door to door dropping off his products. Even a billionaire's daughter gets excited when his products are going to be on sale so to speak and have a special day to do so.

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Old 07-11-17, 06:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Johnhav430

daughter was offered any car she wanted upon graduation,

I see products that I bought for $9.99 last year, for sale at $14.99 today, yet people are very content buying at the higher price.
Some people don't care about the price......as long as Daddy is paying for it.
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Old 07-11-17, 07:11 AM
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Originally Posted by mmarshall
Some people don't care about the price......as long as Daddy is paying for it.
Totally serious, a millenial may accept going from an iPhone 6s, to 7, and getting an 8 as soon as it comes out, and associated costs, makes them happy. Offer them a BMW M4, or a Boxster GTS like a male cousin, and they don't even want it. Rather use uber or lyft and avoid the hassle of maintaining a car, insuring it, feel it's wasteful. And these are folks graduating from top universities....
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Old 07-11-17, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Johnhav430
Totally serious, a millenial may accept going from an iPhone 6s, to 7, and getting an 8 as soon as it comes out, and associated costs, makes them happy. Offer them a BMW M4, or a Boxster GTS like a male cousin, and they don't even want it. Rather use uber or lyft and avoid the hassle of maintaining a car, insuring it, feel it's wasteful. And these are folks graduating from top universities....
One reason many (not all) millennials don't care for sports cars is that they have been conditioned, through years of propaganda (and their instructors in college), that vehicles should all be like Extended-range Priuses or pure-electrics....or even bicycles LOL. They simply don't view a lot of new cars like we do, who grew up with them. To them, sports cars are simply wasteful, expensive toys that burn up valuable fossil-fuels and pollute the air just for the sake of giving their owners some driving-fun. Only reluctantly do some of them even step into a minivan.
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Old 07-11-17, 07:35 AM
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Originally Posted by mmarshall
One reason many (not all) millennials don't care for sports cars is that they have been conditioned, through years of propaganda (and their instructors in college), that vehicles should all be like Extended-range Priuses or pure-electrics....or even bicycles LOL. They simply don't view a lot of new cars like we do, who grew up with them. To them, sports cars are simply wasteful, expensive toys that burn up valuable fossil-fuels and pollute the air just for the sake of giving their owners some driving-fun. Only reluctantly do some of them even step into a minivan.
Another thing I thought of....a cousin of the above was going to a top B school in Cambridge (hahahaha gee I wonder which), and she called me up, hey, what do you think of this ultrabook, just wanted to see what you thought before I got it. It was the T450s, and it was like she had made a business case on why this would be the best choice at the time. I was so impressed that I bought it myself. Sometimes we need to catch ourselves, I said hey if you get it at B&H (where I did), you'll be able to get free shipping and no sales tax and it will come in 2 days (as if she cared about sales tax lol).....hoping she can get my son in for the class of 2036, since my poor boy has no legacy to fall back upon...

But I agree, they just don't get excited about cars imho the way we do, and sometimes bragging etc. is less acceptable to them....political correctness is greater...
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Old 07-11-17, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted by mmarshall
Liability and the ever-present threat of litigation is probably going to be the biggest roadblock to the development of self-driving cars. Like it or not, trial lawyers basically run the country today....and probably will for some time.
Exactly. Self-driving cars are a fun thought, but generally they fail the practicality test. Just wait until there's a major accident involving a self-driving car - there's going to be blood in the courtroom . . . and probably some legal precedents that will eventually require someone walking in front of the vehicle with a red flag to warn people that a self-driving car is approaching.

Originally Posted by Johnhav430
tastes, I've been hearing over and over that milennials do not care about cars. They seem to have this notion of paying for what they use, and technology makes it possible. . . .
I'm hearing that too, that a large number of millennials would rather ride public transit or call in Uber than drive (let alone OWN) a car. It just isn't on their priority list. Driving isn't fun to them - and maybe in our urban environments it isn't. They just don't get out much any more, preferring to sit for hours with their noses buried in their phone, furiously facebooking, IM-ing or texting everyone they know (and hundreds they don't) about some incredibly meaningless bit of trivia. At least they won't be doing that while driving.

Originally Posted by Johnhav430
Totally serious, a millenial may accept going from an iPhone 6s, to 7, and getting an 8 as soon as it comes out, and associated costs, makes them happy. Offer them a BMW M4, or a Boxster GTS like a male cousin, and they don't even want it. Rather use uber or lyft and avoid the hassle of maintaining a car, insuring it, feel it's wasteful. And these are folks graduating from top universities....
I've seen a lot of people throw out a phone because it's not the latest and greatest on the market. As often as six months into a new phone, they abandon it for the latest model that has maybe one or two new features and they can't bear to be without it. Somehow it connects to their self-image, as though having stuff equates with self-worth. This isn't limited to just millennials, I see it all the time among older geeks. Once a friend threw his expensive, two week-old PDA in the trash because a newer model had been introduced that day. His roommate recovered it from the trash can and used it for the next three years.

I rather fear for the future of not only the automobile as we know it, but the human race as a whole. It's a rather Orwellian world where we don't have real social contact or derive pleasure from simple things like exploring new vistas, traveling the backroads to see where we come from, placing a value on fresh air and sunshine, or engaging in sports. Too many young people are finding their reality on a touchscreen, engaging with a virtual world to the exclusion of the real world. Each generation is becoming increasingly disconnected with physical reality. A computer screen or phone is the only world experience our grandkids may ever know . . . and I don't think that's healthy on so many levels.

Maybe the automobile, despite glorious technological predictions, is going the way of the clipper ship and the steam locomotive. No longer an object of wonder to young boys, they're becoming cultural relics of a bygone era.
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Old 07-11-17, 01:29 PM
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I also fear that Wall-E was maybe a little to prescient in its view of future humans.

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Old 07-11-17, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Lil4X
I also fear that Wall-E was maybe a little to prescient in its view of future humans.

I agree, we were just talking about why anyone would want a manual tranny with a clutch. At least here I think it's just about extinct...maybe not in Europe and Asia.
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Old 07-11-17, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by mmarshall
One reason many (not all) millennials don't care for sports cars is that they have been conditioned, through years of propaganda (and their instructors in college), that vehicles should all be like Extended-range Priuses or pure-electrics....or even bicycles LOL. They simply don't view a lot of new cars like we do, who grew up with them. To them, sports cars are simply wasteful, expensive toys that burn up valuable fossil-fuels and pollute the air just for the sake of giving their owners some driving-fun. Only reluctantly do some of them even step into a minivan.
I was at a July 4th party recently, and a young lady there (I found out she's actually 31, but I didn't ask her directly ), another guy, and myself were talking about cars, standing around the fireworks being set off in the driveway, since the guy was curious about my IS that was parked on the street nearby. He said he'd been contemplating upgrading and wasn't even considering Lexus as an option, but that now he'd think about it. The woman, on the other hand, was very adamant that cars are just utilities, just to get us from A to B. Paying more than necessary for a car is just wasteful, according to people like her. (Somewhat awkward for me, in that moment...) My wife feels the same way, but she understands why I like cars and endures me geeking out about them. I suspect many people close to my age (28, at the time of writing) feel the same way - I don't know many "car people" to be honest.

I used to feel the same way, being millennial-ish age too (not that that in and of itself is a reason for that outlook on cars). I was going to keep my first car as long as possible, since it was paid off. But then, I had a rental car - a Hyundai Elantra. Driving it was so different from my own car, which made me realize that I kinda was interested in experiencing newer, or more fun-to-drive cars, even if it was just an Elantra, a humble, entry-level mainstream vehicle. I think, too, a lot of it boiled down to fear of being perceived a certain way based on what I drove. After that, I had two Toyota Camrys back-to-back, which were some of the most anonymous cars one could buy. I chose them because - if I got a BMW or Mercedes, would people think I was stuck up? If I got a Mustang, would I be seen as immature? Those (completely inaccurate) stereotypes were what I was afraid of, so I stuck with something more boring. It was all I needed, anyway. They drove nicely but not remarkably in any way, while getting pretty solid gas mileage. Even though one of them was an SE, which in my mind at the time was pretty sporty (it had a spoiler!!), it left me wanting for something, like it had promised something it wasn't delivering. "It's still a Camry, and considering that it's pretty good to drive." I'd tell myself that for a while, but then I got a promotion at work and thought I'd see if rewarding myself with an upgrade would be worth it. Now, I have a totally different outlook.

Maybe it it's millennials, maybe it's just individual tastes. I think it's a little both - the trend may be that millennials don't value car ownership as much as older generations, but not all of them are that way. And, maybe their tastes will change over time.
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Old 07-11-17, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Lil4X
I also fear that Wall-E was maybe a little to prescient in its view of future humans.

Thought exactly of Wall-E as I was reading your post #9, Lil4X!

You make another good point that at least the millennial generation won't be texting and driving, seeing as how they're so averse to owning a car or evening buying a home. We are saving up for our daughter's education (which I expect will be predominantly online courses and virtual classrooms in colleges and universities of the future). We also were talking about what car to get her in 10 years but maybe that won't matter anymore and we don't have to consider that expense.

I think people still have the same needs as before, but they're met differently now. Way back in the day, cars were cool and exotic and a means to get to the mall or gather with friends and plain get out of the house and around. Nowadays stuff gets delivered to you - food, groceries, clothes, medicine, movies, books, etc. - you don't need to go to the bank, mall, library, or even your friend's house because you can just Skype or FaceTime, lol. My wife and daughter think cars are boring and think I'm weird how I baby my car. Just different priorities. Maybe it's good the younger gen doesn't flush their money down the drain on a depreciating asset when they can find alternate methods of transportation. Besides, many millenials need to figure out how to repay that massive school loan before they can qualify for that car loan.
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Old 07-11-17, 03:14 PM
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With millennials eschewing the automotive experience, what will that mean for automakers in the next 20 years? The gentrification of our inner cities may lead to islands of office/condos with shopping malls on the ground floor. I can see that happening in my city's Downtown, Midtown, and Uptown areas now - blocks of dedicated "core living" areas where ownership of an automobile is just an expensive nuisance.

The trend may begin to throttle back the production of new cars to prevent a glut on the market, but rapidly advancing automotive peripherals, i.e.: audio/visual/entertainment and internet connectivity may well keep new cars relevant well into the second half of the century. People continue to buy "smarter" smartphones, bigger TV's, and spend big bucks for subscription services to keep the entertainment and communication (such as it is) coming at them. One problem is going to be the requirement for self-driving automobiles so that "drivers" (riders) can consume this fire-hose of information pouring into them even from the driver's seat. They'll all be wearing VR goggles with a tiny peep-hole so they don't crash into things, and maybe they'll need an auditory warning if something is coming at them at warp speed.

All considered, I expect as new car prices go up, and those of us willing to take even a small step back from the leading edge are going to find one or two year old technology very inexpensive. I can live with that.
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Old 07-11-17, 10:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Lil4X
Exactly. Self-driving cars are a fun thought, but generally they fail the practicality test. Just wait until there's a major accident involving a self-driving car - there's going to be blood in the courtroom . . . and probably some legal precedents that will eventually require someone walking in front of the vehicle with a red flag to warn people that a self-driving car is approaching.
Or maybe they could have a little robot walking in front of the car, waving a red flag to warn pedestrians... Maybe it could even double down by also filling the car up with gas, change flat tires, clean out snow, etc.
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Old 07-12-17, 06:10 AM
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Originally Posted by PatrixUSA
This made me chuckle. Did this woman have cloths on, shoes, a purse...? All in reality simply utilitarian goods we buy to perform basic functions, such as covering our bodies or feet, or carrying her stuff. Did she only spent what was necessary on these goods?

Cost equivalency aside, her selective application of this mindset leaves little doubt she's really thought that position thoroughly through. In any case, as long as it's not wasteful and one can afford to do so, why shouldn't we get function and enjoyment from our utilitarian goods at the same time?
Agreed! That said, hers is a perfectly valid position to have. Obviously, one can be conservative in some areas but not all. She did seem very confident in what she said. I think it's just that we choose to make exceptions for things we really are passionate about.
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