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Tesla Self-Driving System Riskier than Previously Thought

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Old Jun 10, 2023 | 02:19 PM
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Exclamation Tesla Self-Driving System Riskier than Previously Thought

This article is from today's Washington Post. The article's text would copy and paste OK, but most of the videos, images, and graphs with it would not.....click on the link for the entire list.

This article didn't really fit into the Tesla-Buisness-Discussion thread, and, for some reason, it wouldn't post in the Self-Driving-Vehicles thread from last year, so I added it here.

The Washington Post has a paywall, but they usually allow one or two free articles before they cut you off or block you.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/techn...location=alert

17 fatalities, 736 crashes: The shocking toll of Tesla’s Autopilot

Tesla’s driver-assistance system, known as Autopilot, has been involved in far more crashes than previously reported


By Faiz Siddiqui
and
Jeremy B. Merrill
June 10, 2023 at 7:00 a.m.SAN FRANCISCO — The school bus was displaying its stop sign and flashing red warning lights, a police report said, when Tillman Mitchell, 17, stepped off one afternoon in March. Then a Tesla Model Y approached on North Carolina Highway 561.

The car — allegedly in Autopilot mode — never slowed down.

It struck Mitchell at 45 mph. The teenager was thrown into the windshield, flew into the air and landed face down in the road, according to his great-aunt, Dorothy Lynch. Mitchell’s father heard the crash and rushed from his porch to find his son lying in the middle of the road.

“If it had been a smaller child,” Lynch said, “the child would be dead.”
The crash in North Carolina’s Halifax County, where a futuristic technology came barreling down a rural highway with devastating consequences, was one of 736 U.S. crashes since 2019 involving Teslas in Autopilot mode far more than previously reported, according to a Washington Post analysis of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data. The number of such crashes has surged over the past four years, the data shows,reflecting the hazards associated with increasingly widespread use of Tesla’s futuristic driver-assistance technology as well as the growing presence of the cars on the nation’s roadways.

The number of deaths and serious injuries associated with Autopilot also has grown significantly, the data shows. When authorities first released a partial accounting of accidents involving Autopilot in June 2022, they counted only three deaths definitively linked to the technology. The most recent data includes at least 17 fatal incidents, 11 of them since last May, and five serious injuries.

Mitchell survived the March crash but suffered a fractured neck and a broken leg and had to be placed on a ventilator. He still suffers from memory problems and has trouble walking. His great-aunt said the incident should serve as a warning about the dangers of the technology.

“I pray that this is a learning process,” Lynch said. “People are too trusting when it comes to a piece of machinery.”





Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that cars operating in Tesla’s Autopilot mode are safer than those piloted solely by human drivers, citing crash rates when the modes of driving are compared. He has pushed the carmaker to develop and deploy features programmed to maneuver the roads — navigating stopped school buses, fire engines, stop signs and pedestrians — arguing that the technology will usher in a safer, virtually accident-free future. While it’s impossible to say how many crashes may have been averted, the data shows clear flaws in the technology being tested in real time on America’s highways.

Tesla’s 17 fatal crashes reveal distinct patterns, The Post found: Four involved a motorcycle. Another involved an emergency vehicle. Meanwhile, some of Musk’s decisions — such as widely expanding the availability of the features and stripping the vehicles of radar sensors — appear to have contributed to the reported uptick in incidents, according to experts who spoke with The Post.

Tesla and Elon Musk did not respond to a request for comment.

NHTSA said a report of a crash involving driver-assistance does not itself imply that the technology was the cause. “NHTSA has an active investigation into Tesla Autopilot, including Full-Self Driving,” spokeswoman Veronica Morales said, noting the agency doesn’t comment on open investigations. “NHTSA reminds the public that all advanced driver assistance systems require the human driver to be in control and fully engaged in the driving task at all times. Accordingly, all state laws hold the human driver responsible for the operation of their vehicles.”

Musk has repeatedly defended his decision to push driver-assistance technologies to Tesla owners, arguing that the benefit outweighs the harm.



“At the point of which you believe that adding autonomy reduces injury and death, I think you have a moral obligation to deploy it even though you’re going to get sued and blamed by a lot of people,” Musk said last year. “Because the people whose lives you saved don’t know that their lives were saved. And the people who do occasionally die or get injured, they definitely know — or their state does.”

Former NHTSA senior safety adviser Missy Cummings, a professor at George Mason University’s College of Engineering and Computing, said the surge in Tesla crashes is troubling.

“Tesla is having more severe — and fatal — crashes than people in a normal data set,” she said in response to the figures analyzed by The Post. One likely cause, she said, is the expanded rollout over the past year and a half of Full Self-Driving, which brings driver-assistance to city and residential streets. “The fact that … anybody and everybody can have it. … Is it reasonable to expect that might be leading to increased accident rates? Sure, absolutely.”

Cummings said the number of fatalities compared to overall crashes was also a concern.

It is unclear whether the data captures every crash involving Tesla’s driver-assistance systems. NHTSA’s data includes some incidents where it is “unknown” whether Autopilot or Full Self-Driving was in use. Those include three fatalities, including one last year.



NHTSA, the nation’s top auto safety regulator, began collecting the data after a federal order in 2021 required automakers to disclose crashes involving driver-assistance technology. The total number of crashes involving the technology is minuscule compared with all road incidents; NHTSA estimates that more than 40,000 people died in wrecks of all kinds last year.

Since the reporting requirements were introduced, the vast majority of the 807 automation-related crashes have involved Tesla, the data show. Tesla — which has experimented more aggressively with automation than other automakers — also is linked to almost all of the deaths.

Subaru ranks second with 23 reported crashes since 2019. The enormous gulf probably reflects wider deployment and use of automation across Tesla’s fleet of vehicles, as well as the wider range of circumstances in which Tesla drivers are encouraged to use Autopilot.



Autopilot, which Tesla introduced in 2014, is a suite of features that enable the car to maneuver itself from highway on-ramp to off-ramp, maintaining speed and distance behind other vehicles and following lane lines. Tesla offers it as a standard feature on its vehicles, of which more than 800,000 are equipped with Autopilot on U.S. roads, though advanced iterations come at a cost.

Full Self-Driving, an experimental feature that customers must purchase, allows Teslas to maneuver from point A to B by following turn-by-turn directions along a route, halting for stop signs and traffic lights, making turns and lane changes, and responding to hazards along the way. With either system, Tesla saysdrivers must monitor the road and intervene when necessary.


The uptick in crashes coincides with Tesla’s aggressive rollout of Full Self-Driving, which has expanded from around 12,000 users to nearly 400,000 in a little more than a year.Nearly two-thirds of all driver-assistance crashes that Tesla has reported to NHTSA occurred in the past year.

Philip Koopman, a Carnegie Mellon University professor who has conducted research on autonomous vehicle safety for 25 years, said the prevalence of Teslas in the data raises crucial questions.

“A significantly higher number certainly is a cause for concern,” he said. “We need to understand if it’s due to actually worse crashes or if there’s some other factor such as a dramatically larger number of miles being driven with Autopilot on.”

In February, Tesla issued a recall of more than 360,000 vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving over concerns that the software prompted its vehicles to disobey traffic lights, stop signs and speed limits.



The flouting of traffic laws, documents posted by the safety agency said, “could increase the risk of a collision if the driver does not intervene.” Tesla said it remedied the issues with an over-the-air software update, remotely addressing the risk.

While Tesla constantly tweaked its driver-assistance software, it also took the unprecedented step of https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/03/19/elon-musk-tesla-driving/?itid=lk_inline_manual_36 from new cars and disabling them from vehicles already on the road — depriving them of a critical sensor as Musk pushed a simpler hardware set amid the global computer chip shortage. Musk
last year, “Only very high resolution radar is relevant.”

It has recently taken steps to reintroduce radar sensors, according to government filings first by Electrek.

In a March presentation, Tesla claimed Full Self-Driving crashes at a rate five times lower than vehicles in normal driving, in a comparison of miles driven per collision. That claim, and Musk’s characterization of Autopilot as “unequivocally safer,” is impossible to test without access to the detailed data that Tesla possesses.

Autopilot, largely a highway system, operates in a less complex environment than the range of situations experienced by a typical road user.

It is unclear which of the systems was in use in the fatal crashes: Tesla has asked NHTSA not to disclose that information. In the section of the NHTSA data specifying the software version, Tesla’s incidents read — in all capital letters — “redacted, may contain confidential business information.”

Both Autopilot and Full Self-Driving have come under scrutiny in recent years. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told the Associated Press last month that Autopilot is not an appropriate name “when the fine print says you need to have your hands on the wheel and eyes on the road at all times.”



NHTSA has opened multiple probes into Tesla’s crashes and other problems with its driver-assistance software.One has focused on “phantom braking,” a phenomenon in which vehicles abruptly slow down for imagined hazards.

In one case last year, detailed by The Intercept, a Tesla Model S allegedly using driver-assistance suddenly braked in traffic on the San Francisco Bay Bridge, resulting in an eight-vehicle pileup that left nine people injured, including a 2-year-old.

In other complaints filed with NHTSA, owners say the cars slammed on the brakes when encountering semi-trucksin oncoming lanes.

Many crashes involve similar settings and conditions. NHTSA has received more than a dozen reports of Teslas slamming into parked emergency vehicles while in Autopilot, for example. Last year,NHTSA upgraded its investigation of those incidents to an “engineering analysis.”



Also last year, NHTSA opened two consecutive special investigations into fatal crashes involving Tesla vehicles and motorcyclists. One occurred in Utah, when a motorcyclist on a Harley-Davidson was traveling in a high-occupancy lane on Interstate 15 outside Salt Lake City, shortly after 1 a.m., according to authorities. A Tesla in Autopilot struck the bike from behind.

“The driver of the Tesla did not see the motorcyclist and collided with the back of the motorcycle, which threw the rider from the bike,” the Utah Department of Public Safety said. The motorcyclist died at the scene, Utah authorities said.

“It’s very dangerous for motorcycles to be around Teslas,” Cummings said.




Of hundreds of Tesla driver-assistance crashes, NHTSA has focused on about 40 Tesla incidents for further analysis, hoping to gain deeper insight into how the technology operates. Among them was the North Carolina crash involving Mitchell, the student disembarking from the school bus.

Afterward, Mitchell awoke in the hospital with no recollection of what happened. He still doesn’t grasp the seriousness of it, his aunt said. His memory problems are hampering him as he tries to catch up in school. Local outlet WRAL reported that the impact of the crash shattered the Tesla’s windshield.

The Tesla driver, Howard G. Yee, was charged with multiple offenses in the crash, including reckless driving, passing a stopped school bus and striking a person, a class I felony, according to North Carolina State Highway Patrol Sgt. Marcus Bethea.





Authorities said Yee had fixed weights to the steering wheel to trick Autopilot into registering the presence of a driver’s hands: Autopilot disables the functions if steering pressure is not applied after an extended amount of time. Yee did not respond to a request for comment.

NHTSA is still investigating the crash and an agency spokeswoman declined to offer further details, citing the ongoing investigation. Tesla asked the agency to exclude the company’s summary of the incident from public view, saying it “may contain confidential business information.”

Lynch said her family has kept Yee in their thoughts, and regards his actions as a mistake prompted by excessive trust in the technology, what experts call “automation complacency.”

“We don’t want his life to be ruined over this stupid accident,” she said.

But when asked about Musk, Lynch had sharper words.

“I think they need to ban automated driving,” she said. “I think it should be banned.”

Last edited by mmarshall; Jun 10, 2023 at 02:35 PM.
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Old Jun 10, 2023 | 04:26 PM
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I just read this. Who would have imagined that Tesla has not been transparent about all this??
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 04:49 AM
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Autopilot is good but definitely has its flaws. It steers better than all of the other cars but there are times where it is way too close to the center line where I have to take over or it feels like it will hit the oncoming car head on. The problem with autopilot is that the second you correct it, it shuts off the auto steer where most other cars I’ve had doesn’t. By doing this it makes you try to trust it more because you feel like you don’t want to constantly reset it every time you take over.

The other thing is it brakes pretty hard too where I would never wait that long to brake when approaching a car at a stoplight and it is sometimes too jerky.

All in all it’s pretty good but is not as good as many claim. If they took the steering and matched it up with my BMWs smoother driving/braking and implementation it would be almost perfect for me.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 05:09 AM
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Why do they keep calling it "FSD" and "autopilot" when that is patently false?
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 05:16 AM
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Originally Posted by nitroracer
Why do they keep calling it "FSD" and "autopilot" when that is patently false?
I’ve been saying the same thing for a long time, the names by themselves are both misleading to me.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 05:27 AM
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Originally Posted by patgilm
I’ve been saying the same thing for a long time, the names by themselves are both misleading to me.
Even worse, where their brand is most popular (California), only Mercedes' Level 3 autonomous driving system has been approved. Tesla is still technically Level 2.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 07:01 AM
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This article is really misleading and another Tesla hit piece. First of all, in the school bus crash it says "the car was ALLEGEDLY in Autopilot mode." There is no proof that it was. Secondly, people, including this author and others quoted within the article need to understand Autopilot and FSD are not the same thing. Every Tesla has Autopilot. Not every Tesla has FSD. There is a sentence that says "The fact that … anybody and everybody can have it. … Is it reasonable to expect that might be leading to increased accident rates? Sure, absolutely.”'

There has been no material change to who can have FSD. You have to pay for it. And more Tesla's are lacking FSD than are equipped with it.

Last edited by jrmckinley; Jun 11, 2023 at 07:32 AM.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 07:27 AM
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I wasn't going to post because I read the article as a hit piece too.

There is so much wrong with the article I doubt it can be gone thru in less than a thousand words taking it line by line.
<article is an illogical nightmare> IMO

The author has a clear agenda.

With that aside, as someone who works on machine electronics we see a lot of machine vision in one form or another and saftey is a huge concern.

Ive never been on board with the self driving idea. It's trying to drive autonomous in a system that isnt closed.

I believe this is a huge liability for Tesla and others.

I think they should strip it down to a drive assist and just work on perfecting that.

Ive always been a little suspicious that Tesla owners using FSD and Autopilot are really just being used to test a technology that will then be used and sold to big companies for self driving deliveries and take the jobs from drivers.

I know, these ideas are "out there" but thats what I see. Lol
just IMO of course.

Last edited by Margate330; Jun 11, 2023 at 08:08 AM.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 07:37 AM
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If you were involved in a major accident that was your fault (ie running into the back of a stopped school bus), why wouldn't you claim that your car was using its own technology instead of you taking blame? Kinda like the Toyota incidents of unintended acceleration... which is literally impossible as any car on the planet, regardless of age, will come to a complete stop if you apply the brake even while flooring the accelerator simultaneously.

A Tesla that is behind a stopped or slowing vehicle in front of you will beep at you like crazy to get your attention if you are doing anything other than decelerating at a pace that will avoid the collision.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by jrmckinley
If you were involved in a major accident that was your fault (ie running into the back of a stopped school bus), why wouldn't you claim that your car was using its own technology instead of you taking blame? Kinda like the Toyota incidents of unintended acceleration... which is literally impossible as any car on the planet, regardless of age, will come to a complete stop if you apply the brake even while flooring the accelerator simultaneously.

A Tesla that is behind a stopped or slowing vehicle in front of you will beep at you like crazy to get your attention if you are doing anything other than decelerating at a pace that will avoid the collision.
Yes sir and thats another big problem.

I have a family member in the insurance business for 20 years.

It no shocker but what he told me is people lie, lie, and lie to get out of responisbility for accidents they cause. Lolol

This is why I think it adds a lot of extra liabiliby on Tesla and others. Just ideas, Ive never drove a Tesla so I only have experience with machines in a closed system.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 08:26 AM
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the only relevant part:

“NHTSA reminds the public that all advanced driver assistance systems require the human driver to be in control and fully engaged in the driving task at all times. Accordingly, all state laws hold the human driver responsible for the operation of their vehicles.”
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by tex2670
I just read this. Who would have imagined that Tesla has not been transparent about all this??
I like transparency and Tesla needs to be as transparent as possible. IMO
No shady business allowed. lolol
Spoiler
 




Originally Posted by patgilm
Autopilot is good but definitely has its flaws. It steers better than all of the other cars but there are times where it is way too close to the center line where I have to take over or it feels like it will hit the oncoming car head on. The problem with autopilot is that the second you correct it, it shuts off the auto steer where most other cars I’ve had doesn’t. By doing this it makes you try to trust it more because you feel like you don’t want to constantly reset it every time you take over.

The other thing is it brakes pretty hard too where I would never wait that long to brake when approaching a car at a stoplight and it is sometimes too jerky.

All in all it’s pretty good but is not as good as many claim. If they took the steering and matched it up with my BMWs smoother driving/braking and implementation it would be almost perfect for me.
Interesting, and honest review.
.
For those of us who haven't driven these cars(like myself), Tesla owners please school us, if ya feel like it.

Originally Posted by bitkahuna
the only relevant part:

“NHTSA reminds the public that all advanced driver assistance systems require the human driver to be in control and fully engaged in the driving task at all times. Accordingly, all state laws hold the human driver responsible for the operation of their vehicles.”
Pretty much lol

Last edited by Margate330; Jun 11, 2023 at 09:43 AM.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 09:52 AM
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I can't comment on Autopilot as I don't use it. But I occasionally test out FSD just to see how it's performing through various upgrades. There are some things that I notice where the computer is doing something I wouldn't do. Ex: I entered address of where I was going (about 3 miles from my house) and car was in FSD mode approaching an intersection with a stop light. It puts on the left turn signal to get into one of 2 left turn lanes. The restaurant which was my destination is about 1/10th or maybe a quarter of a mile on the right after you make this left turn. So I would always get in the outside (right) lane turning left. There were about 4 cars in that lane and only one car on the inside lane so the Tesla chose the left lane with fewer cars. I let it make the turn through the intersection but I grabbed control to get myself over into the right lane so I could guarantee it didn't miss the turn into the restaurant.

Any time you take control of the car in FSD it asks you if you'd like to do a voice transcription of why. I've started doing that so the model learns situations like I just described that IMO it makes more sense for the car to take the outer lane knowing the destination is a very short distance away on the right.

Edit: I will add that coming out of my neighborhood is an intersection with blinking red stop light during certain hours of the day and a solid/traditional red other times of the day. The Tesla very quickly realizes it's a blinking red and will inch up as it assesses when it can go based on what's happening from the other directions. Pretty impressive test because visibility is a little tricky which is why it inches up.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 09:57 AM
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Here we go again. What's funny is, you have all these people in the world talking about self-driving cars and how we are close to that being a reality. One idiot on another forum was telling me how he's going to have his Tesla run deliveries all day and make him a lot of money while he's on the beach. 🤣🤣

There is no substitute for good driving by a human. We don't need to rely on technology for every single facet of our lives, especially when there is so much that can go wrong. I don't care for all those self-driving aids, but if people want to have them and it helps them out, then that's significantly better than trying to let your car drive itself. I don't see that happening in my lifetime and I'm 34, so I got quite a few years left.
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Old Jun 11, 2023 | 10:05 AM
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Originally Posted by xjokerz
Here we go again. What's funny is, you have all these people in the world talking about self-driving cars and how we are close to that being a reality. One idiot on another forum was telling me how he's going to have his Tesla run deliveries all day and make him a lot of money while he's on the beach. 🤣🤣

There is no substitute for good driving by a human. We don't need to rely on technology for every single facet of our lives, especially when there is so much that can go wrong. I don't care for all those self-driving aids, but if people want to have them and it helps them out, then that's significantly better than trying to let your car drive itself. I don't see that happening in my lifetime and I'm 34, so I got quite a few years left.
If you'd seen the number of driverless test vehicles we see on the road here in Silicon Valley you'd know that the day that self driving cars are making driverless deliveries may be closer than you think. For a while we could have groceries delivered to our door by a robot that was being tested in our neighborhood. A subsidiary of GM already operates driverless taxis in San Francisco, as does Waymo (Google). The R&D investment in this space is significant.
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