Seals and non loaded parts die from age, loaded parts and moving items wear from usage frequency/cycles

A lot of the stuff that fails on 430s like leaks and belts are age related and not movement/usage except for the obvious lower arms

 

I'm not arguing that. Of course there are parts that "expire". First thing I did on my low mileage car was change the timing belt.

But on my high mileage car that is the same age, I have the same age related issues PLUS all the wear and tear from the extra 140k miles that have been put on it. And the wear and tear (or lack of it) is very real and measurable. .

 

Sure but even a low mile car will still need seals replaced, I went though both a high mileage and old car resulting in everything moving in the suspension needed replaced and all seals but I have worked on enough cars from various decades to know that time will also kill a lot of things on sub 30k mile collector cars even they are only driven 1000 miles a year.

If you take a 20k mile LS430 and let it sit for 10 years and take another one and drive it to 600k miles in the same time the one driven will have the same leaks and issues as the one that sat. The one that sat will have a tight suspension still, the 430 is no BMW in terms of what time ravages but it still is vulnerable to time more than mileage.

 

Agreed.

Just like an insurance man will oversell insurance (we could go on and on with examples, but one's home, one's life, and jewelry are prime examples--if your house costs $400k to replace, but its market value is $1.2 mil, there's a very good chance I can sell you insurance much higher than 400k, with the premium being based on the coverage), many people covet cars with low miles, whether or not they will ever be able to benefit from it. Again, if a LS430 goes 200k all day long, and 300k probably, and 976k occasionally, what benefit is it, on a 2006 car, to have 30k, or 125k. Neither one of these cars are ever going to drive 300k.

 

To your point, I cross-shopped the 2006 A8 with the 2006 LS430, in 10/16. The A8 had a list of $78,000 new, the LS 65,400. The A8's had 50-60k, the LS' 80-100k, and on average, the A8s were selling for $2-$3k less. there's no question the A8 is way nicer, drives way better, and way more luxurious. But pretty certain if we flashed forward to 2020, that $12k A8 would have been more out the door to keep on the road, than the LS.

I'd be willing to bet a 20k LS430, never sees 200k before it's junked. It could very well be junked in 2027, but it will never see another 180k on the road. It won't be worth it based on its wholesale value. A DIY'er could likely take it near 200k, but there's not enough time.

 

What is going to stop it? My dealer told me they still have quite a few LS400s come in for service that are still going strong.

What is going to happen in next 7 years specifically that is going to make my 22k miles car that may have 75k miles on it be ready for the junkyard?

 

If you are looking at LS430s today, old is a given. The decision isn't old vs mileage. It's old vs old and mileage. There are some issues that are due specifically to age. But others that are specifically related to the wear and tear of mileage. A car that hasn't been driven as much, and I'm not talking about a barn find, just the little old lady that drove to the grocery store and church scenario, are less likely on average to have those issues that are specific to the wear and tear from being driven.

That's why dealers ask more for them and people are willing to pay more for them.

 

We will agree, to disagree.

 

Agree. Some LS430's that have been garaged, well maintained and driven in an easy climate (like where I live) can last a very long time. Condition, maintenance and environment can make huge difference in longevity. My 2006 LS has 135k miles on it. It has been maintained by the book, been gently driven, and always garage kept. It looks and runs like new, engine smooth as glass, and has had zero leaks or seepage. The engine and engine bay is clean and dry as a bone. To date major repairs have been new front struts and LCAs and a driver side mirror replacement. That's it other than fluids, filters, windshield blades, 2 new batteries, and tires and 2 sets of brake pads.

 

Absolutely nothing, lmao. There is zero basis in truth, as usual

 

what will stop it, could be a minor crash, not even your fault, but the insurance will want to total your car, no matter how well it is maintained. Then do you want to keep on with a Salvage title knowing that your car is solid, but will be worthless in the future. one chance to get out …. better think twice about taking it. Then the body shop took an extra week to source a part. Anything can be had now, but in 5-7 years a part might sideline you for a unknown amount of time. worth it, maybe

 

I was asking in reference to age related mechanical issues. That's more of a financial/convenience issue.

 

I was gonna ignore it, because it's not personal, it's the concept of time, not mileage, being the enemy, which some fundamentally disagree with.

Here's what I said, and I'm going to quote, me.

"I'd be willing to bet a 20k LS430, never sees 200k before it's junked."

A 3rd gen LS430, imho, which has 20k miles today, will likely have time and repairs needed stop it, before it reaches 200k. Say the emissions fail in a state needing an annual inspection--how many perform the repair on a 30 y.o. car? A car with 180k? Will very likely see 300k, before it's junked. A car with 300k today? Will likely see 500k before it's junked.

man alive lol this all goes back to should I get a 430 or 460. well a 460 takes some years off the car, maybe 7 if you go 2013. Let's say we flash forward to 2032 when my son graduates HS (or maybe 2033 now), and the 20k car has 31k. Do you really think it will reach 200k someday?

 

Again, no basis in facts or science. What does a 2013 LS460 have to do with this besides trying to arbitrarily conflate the 460’s condition in two decades in the future to a LS430? Which, obviously, is impossible to say, given that it is a fundamentally different car in every way imaginable and the fact that we can’t see twenty years ahead.

There is nothing, and I mean nothing, stopping a current 20k mile LS430 or even LS400 from hitting 200k miles. The thought of that is laughable. I bought my 430 over 2 years and 50k miles ago with barely 60k miles on it. It had sat for 2-3 years at a time at some points, based on service records from Lexus cross referenced with mileage reports from Carfax. There is not a single spec of dirt or oil or seepage on any part of this car to this day despite it sitting for so long and having such low miles. My only repair to date is one o2 sensor and it is daily driven.

I also have a collection of motorcycles, the majority older than my 430 and all with less than 20k miles — are those going to spontaneously combust too since they sit so often? My 2005 ZX10r has never been opened up, yet doesn’t leak, doesn’t burn oil, doesn’t do anything abnormal and has 13k miles. My ZX14 sat for 3 years (!) from 2014-2016. It had 5k total miles on it last year. Guess what? Same story. It’s now my go-to bike and reliable and clean as you could ever imagine.

Bottom line, if your machine has been maintained, garage kept, and not completely neglected it is almost always preferable to have a lower mileage example of whatever it is vs. a higher mileage example of the same vintage.

Now, with the 430 is it more cost effective sometimes to just buy a higher mileage example to skip the low mileage price premium? With such a reliable car, probably! But you can’t just arbitrarily say, as I see all over this forum for some reason, that just because your LS4xx sat for x amount of years that it’s shot. Far from it, in my experience.

 

What do you think? I guess I'm going to exit this thread for good.