When I first got my Exotic, the owner of the dealership was bending over backwards to make sure I was having fun with the car. He pointed out that nobody needed an exotic. What makes us get one, any non-utilititirian car for that matter, has something to do with who we are from a very young age. I'm forever amazed by how young kids are who react to the car. This is the mystery of exotics in the first place, the willingness to spend the cost of a house on something we actually spend little time driving and more time admiring in a garage somewhere. When I think of the LFA, I think of the SLR and how it was received. It was respected the minuted it showed up, as I think will happen with the LFA. The success or failure I think is more about economics. Let's face it, there are other cars that can do the same thing performance wise, so that's not going to be the key selling point. What the car will rely on will be it own unique soul in the exotic community. Sort of like blonds versus redheads versus brunets. I think the lease program will create unintended consequences more than anything else and sadly the car will get the blame, not the guys who created the horrible overstated sales pitch and phony exclusivity in the first place.

 

Very well said. Thank you.

 

please stop being needlessly argumentative and baiting, just because tommy james has a different perspective than you.

 

And again, the point is that Lexus (and notably, Lexus, not me ) can establish what this market is because every prospective buyer has been told since day one, months ago, that the LFA purchase will be structured as a lease with terms essentially identical to what they've recently finalized. Although it is again unsurprising that you choose to do so, you nevertheless keep glossing over this point as if Lexus yesterday told buyers for the first time that there would be a forced lease.


Pointedly, this is precisely why they are following the forced lease model. Because Lexus doesn't have traditional buyers for the LFA, they have to use other mechanisms to discourage speculators. Ferrari recognizes that their F40 distribution was a total blunder; that's why they switched to a forced lease on the F50 (despite having not only traditional supercar buyers, but supercar buying history, to boot) as an alternative to select loyal customers who wouldn't flip the car. Fortunately, they were able to take a slightly different approach with the Enzo that was based on said alternative, but Lexus can't depend solely on that because they don't have the same buying history to determine customers, so they take an approach (that I and others have alleged is) modeled on the F50 distribution. That's why no one should be surprised that, for example, the residual as a percentage of total lease payments of the LFA resembles that of the F50, and why it's silly for anyone who claims to know anything about supercars to try to argue that the residual is somehow indicative of Lexus not believing in the value of the car.

Until the LFA finishes production no one will know if Lexus' approach was correct, but the simple reality is that Lexus has made clear the LFA will be sold as a forced lease since the day they opened their phone lines - so the existing customer response is based on reactions given a forced lease.

In the end, does anyone really care if 500 is too few or too many? Maybe others do, but I don't. The Carrera GT found 1250+ happy owners (if they'd offered a transmission other than manual, they'd have found another ) and the Ford GT found 4000+ more. Does anyone really care if their production was discontinued due to lack of demand? I sure don't, because the length of both production runs was better for enthusiasts who actually wanted the car.

 

You're missing the point entirely. It's not about the hurdle of the forced lease in an up market. It's the fact that the forced lease will keep buyers away in a DOWN MARKET. There is a huge difference.

When it comes to Lexus claim about "customer reaction" as some indicator of demand, the other exotic manufacturers learned long ago that "customer reaction" has very little to do with actual sales. Lamborghini and others reached the point where they won't give out printed materials except in very limited quantities because it was causing them to go broke. There isn't a dealer out there who doesn't put up with hundreds of "I going to buy one of these." every month. Many dealers have gone to "Appointment Only" for that very reason. They can waste all day with people claiming to be "buyers." Believe me, when I walk in I'm not treated any better unless they already know me because I'm the 500th guy that month who's come in to say I want to buy something. At first I was put out by it, now I get it.

Again, for everything you say to be correct you have to have the same circumstances for each car and that's what you keep ignoring. This is NOT the F50, because if it was there would be a very different buzz. There were logical buyers from other Ferraris to step up to the next car. Lexus doesn't have that. This is why I've been using the SLR as an example as it's the closest model Lexus has to their program.

To stop speculators you have to have them in the first place and there is ZERO buzz in the exotic community that anyone is going to buy one for the purposes of flipping it, or for that matter buying one to hold. I keep saying it over and over, the buzz doesn't exist. In the case of the Carrera GT, they already had customers who were exotic owners who were ready to step up to the next car IN A DIFFERENT MARKET. The Ford GT doesn't even enter the picture because it's prices WAY below the others where the LFA should have been priced in the first place, in which case none of these arguments would apply.

Who is selling 150 anything priced at $400k in our market? Lexus claims they will do it in the next three months!!! I don't care what it is, nobody is selling $400k anything in this market.

Again, to repeat myself ad nauseam, for there to be speculators, there has to be demand. For there to be a demand over supply, there has to be a buzz in the exotic community somewhere. You seem to think it's silent, under the radar and I'm thinking that's just not possible.

Here is another data point, a large percentage of this 150 buyers would be selling something to make room for the LFA and there would be chatter about it somewhere. I challenge you to find it and point it out. There has been no increase of Murcielagos or Gallardos on the used market. In fact there is a decrease because the new market has not brought used into the fold so now the used are slowly drying up.

This is the forum with the most chatter about the LFA anywhere and how many have chimed in and said, yup, I can't wait to place my order? David may be the only one and he's in Japan. Again, there should several hundred fighting over 150 spots to be decided by June. Someone somewhere would be *****ing about their worry that they won't get their order in. Have you seen that thread anywhere on any forum?

Not everyone with money has room for ten cars in their garage. Most exotic owners have a three or four car garage and don't want to store a car somewhere. A lot of readers here want to apply rich stereotypes that all live in mansions with ten car garages. They don't. Some of the most expensive homes are not all that large. Those people with three and four car garages are the bulk of the bell curve. Doesn't matter if that exotic is a Veyron or an old Mustang. They have to sell something to make room for something else.

Second, with the F50, Enzo, Carerra GT, there was chatter about those cars long before hit the streets. They had buyers with existing exotics within the brand so they already knew their habits. Lexus has none of that. Take a look at the amount of chatter about the F458 and you will see what chatter looks like. You will find thread after thread about people saying they are on the list with the dealer waiting to find out when they can step up and begin the order process. I can name ten guys I know who will try and get their hands on an F458. Where is similar chatter for the LFA? This thread has brought the most intelligent discussion I've found anywhere on the subject and they aren't in this argument either. Are you going to buy one?

Forget for a moment if it is or isn't a great car. Now, assuming speculators don't exist, what then is the purpose of the two payment lease? How does it bring buyers? It doesn't! There is no advantage to the lease at all in a down market, which is where we are for ALL exotics. This is why Lamborghini hasn't been in a big rush to launch the replacement to the Murcielago. The market just isn't there. I believe Lexus is doing this lease so they don't have to compete with themselves in the used market. Meaning they fear selling ten, having those ten change hands over and over at lower prices while they sit on the remainders. This is happening right now with ALL other exotic brands, why wouldn't it happen with Lexus?

You brought up CGTs, they aren't holding their value so well either. It's one of the most dangerous cars on the road and it's got a reputation for killing people, even though it's a hell of a performer. We had two totaled, both with experience drivers (car collectors no less) in the same month locally. One owner says it's one of the best track cars he's ever driven and he's a very good driver, and one of the best around. He's also got a giant car collection of just about everything and the LFA isn't on his radar either. I had lunch with him last Saturday and he too didn't know of anyone who plans to buy one.

Again, you point out that I don't know everyone and you're right I don't. I do host the largest weekly gathering of exotics north of LA. I've hosted two large events for Lamborghini, I'm reading every car blog I can find, I'm a Lexus owner, and I'm talking to anyone I know who's both qualified and could potentially have an interest in the LFA and they are just not interested in the car. YET. Yes, that could change when the car hits the streets, but 150 of anything is a tall order in this economy. Again, Lamborghini sold just 43 SVs in the US market because they too are competing against the terrific value used exotics. All of which also compete with the LFA.

Here is the difference, many of you believe the LFA will be a huge hit and will be sold out, why? Because Lexus and ONLY Lexus told you so! If you can point to other data points to support Lexus claim, I'm all eyes. I will gladly listen to those arguments. Rather than just argue with me, do some homework, help make this thread even more interesting, find the buyers willing to step forward and join the discussion, even if it's only a few posts.

Because these cars are not to be sold to speculators, then we can assume they are real car people and the one thing I know that's universal to ALL car people is they all like to talk cars so it shouldn't be that tough getting buyers to come here and talk. If the speculators truly exist, we'd see arguments about qualification criteria somewhere in some thread, but again, it doesn't exist. This entire topic got on my radar, when Lexus was making claims that were inconsistent with everything I know about the exotic community. Yea, I have to agree, the possibility exists that they could sell all 150 under the radar, but I doubt it.

Starting this week, I can't wait to see the posts when buyers come on here all excited because they were chosen as buyers. That should make for a very interesting discussion. Let's see- 35 to 50 a month- if 10% seek out this community or some exotic community, we should see 3 to five buyers here a month at a minimum over the next three months, all talking about their number position, etc. I'm sticking with my prediction, that they will sell 20. And, those 20 will mostly be in the hands of dealership owners who will use the car for display and promotion. That's how it's looking to me right now.

 

One of my favorite aspects of the lease is the fact that buyers work directly with Lexus.

Starting from the initial request by phone, to the follow up with the "concierge" and hopefully soon with the finance folks.

Back to the numbers thing, I admit to not knowing the Lambo game.

The SV example may not be the best example to work from. I believe, since introduction, 4000 Mucielagos have been delivered. This is a car for the hard core crowd only. The SV moreso with the stick only specification. My basic point here is 4000 folks have picked up a car you can only use for play time.

Unless it is snowing out, the LFA can be used without batting an eye by anyone.

Another piece to consider is that some folks with bank live far from service centers (think rural Oklahoma). The LFA is great for them as they will not have to live with the flatbed lifestyle to get the broken exotic to the dealer.

The folks I met at the LFA event like cars, like toys in general and make money in Real Estate. One guy mentioned having a BMW Z8 (but arrived in his new LS) and the other just had a fleet of Lexuses.

My case may be more in line with a good size chunk of the buyers. I have had some cars with a fun aspect (CRX, Volvo 850R wagon, S2000 and IS350) but certainly not exotic.

 

I'm not sure what's your talking about when you say "stick only" are you referring to manual over e-gear? (e-gear is paddle shift) They only built four SVs worldwide in manual. The other 347 were e-gear.

You bring up a very good point with service, however Lamborghini pays for transport to and from the nearest dealership. Transport is rarely a flatbed as the finish is too expensive.

Almost all Lamborghinis sold are AWD, and a VERY GOOD AWD system. I drove my LP640 in the snow in the passes between LA and Las Vegas in January 2008 and the car was fine. We have others here who throw snow tires on their Murcielagos. Yes, they make a snow tire for the Murcielago but you have to order them directly from Europe.

I've not read the tire specifications on the LFA and if they are the same type as standard on the Murcielago, they don't really like cold dry weather. So regardless, you still have to be careful. They do fine in snow if the tires are warm. Cold, they are like ice skates. This is why we had two exotics wreck last week alone.

As for the number of Murcielagos, correct, just over 4,000 worldwide, with somewhere between 800-1,000 in the US over the last eight years, sole at a similar price to the LFA until the SV came along. Now those same cars are compete with everyone on the used market. This is why very few LP460s have sold in this model year. Keep in mind that the bulk of those cars were sold in much better economic times.

 

Hi Tommy,

Yes, by stick I was referring to the manual. The blurb I read had the SV all as manuals (can't believe everything you read).

I could not imagine trying to park or back up a Murcielago where I live. My wife would not even sit in one. I am just saying anyone can drive an LFA.

When it is cold, I plan to have some high speed Blizzaks on.

By flatbed I am getting at reliability. If you live 150 miles from anything, a bulletproof Lexus has a huge advantage over a car that is likely to fail you for a host of reasons.

 

A few things, first, you have to consider clearance no matter what exotic you're buying. Find out what it is and if it can get in and out of underground parking garages. Even a simple driveway can be a challenge. It's not just the nose. You can end up high centered just as easily so it's not just height but wheelbase and rise aft of the rear wheels. We had an issue getting a Scud out of a parking lot yesterday, not because of the nose but because of the rear CF defuser. The Lamborghini has a nose lift that adds another 2 or 3" at speeds below 45 MPH. That makes a big difference, but I still consider the annual cleaning up of the underside of the nose a part of regular ownership.

I've driven lots of exotics and all modern cars are easy to drive. I actually think the LP670 is easer to drive than the LS460L because the diver gets more road feedback. The Murcielago and Gallardo have rear backup cameras as an option and most now have it. Blind spots are not much of an issue because of the long mirrors on the Murcielago. The car is low so nothing is going to sneak under the blind spot.

As for tires, ask what others are running in your area who actually drive their cars. I'm guessing that Lexus will have a specialized tire size and never ever go outside of what they recommend. Modern exotics have very sensitive sensors and the slightest change outside of specification can mess up the car.

Last, you can't assume a mass produced (and tested) car will have the same reliability as something in a 500 car production run that's hand made. While Lexus has the best reputation for reliability for cars in mass production, part of the way they earned that is by putting lots of test cars on the road and driving the heck out of them. That won't happen in a 500 car run. They will have a few test cars, but not 50-100 or more cars like I'm guessing they have with the LS460. Also, when you're hand building anything, there is a learning curve that will still take time on the manufacturing side. Also with any car that's at the extreme end of performance, you're pushing the limits on every component, for weight, wear, output, etc., and all of that comes at a price and that price is that it may fail. The SLR was not as reliable as a Mercedes, and nor has their ever been mass automated manufacturing reliability with any small run production car. In fact the fewer that are made of anything, regardless of who makes it, the smaller the fleet to shake out. Especially when the cars will have lots of miles put on them.

I was at a race car fabrication company yesterday and they were repairing lots of exotics that suffered damage in the strangest of ways. It happens. It's just impossible for Lexus or anyone else to know every issue. Lexus has zero experience building and supporting exotics so there will be teething pains so assuming you're not going need service is just no realistic. This is not anything against Lexus at all. I blew the stereo on my LS460L and what failed hadn't been tested adequately as I understand many failed. You may end up with a perfect car that doesn't break, but I'd not simply assume it or you're going to end up hating the car. Exotics break and it doesn't matter if it's a Veyron, or and SLR, or a CGT, or any other extension of a mass produced brand.

Some issues can only be discovered once the fleet is on the road. Don't let what I'm saying stop you from buying an exotic unless you don't love cars. Hanging out with the mechanics, attending tech sessions from Lexus and other brands, learning about the car and how engineering problems are solved is half the fun.

 

^ I think you're fearing the unknown, that when the LFA comes out there is a possibility it will be better than your prized Lamborghini. That is why you spend a lot of your time here defending other exotics against it or attacking the lease program. Just accept it, the LFA will be built, there will be people driving it, you may or may not see one, it may or may not be better than your car, just accept it.

 

What I have to say isn't meant for those who are incapable of discussing issues without making it personal.

 

Guys for the last time stay on topic and do not make it personal. Again for the record Tommy has a LS 460 among his vehicles and has praised the car, he is not some Lexus basher.

Let me also ask that to move on and "agree to disagree" if you are replying to the same people and no one is budging on their stance.

Both sides have good arguments and opinions.

Let me add I have joined the Lambo forums and Tommy treated me with respect there I need to post some more.

 

Thanks! Yes, I do hope you post more. And YES, I've defended the Lexus brand many, many times among the BMW, Mercedes and Audi diehards. I love my LS460L! Sorry, didn't mean to be off topic.

 

Lexus spent 9 years developing the LFA. They also spent several years testing the car exclusively on the Nurburgring, and twice entered prototypes of the car in the 24 Hours of Nurburgring race to further test reliability and durability. The 24 Hours of Nurburgring race is considered by many as the toughest 24 Hour endurance race in the world, considered tougher than the 24 Hours of Le Mans in terms of reliability.

I'm pretty sure Lexus knows what reliability problems there are, what are the weakest parts of the car reliability-wise, and how reliable the car is under a variety of conditions.

 

I know Lexus reliability. I've owned four. Nine years of development was mostly spent doing R&D on the concept of the car, certainly not testing it. None of what you point out necessarily translates into the same reliability found in high volume production cars, because none of these test so far are from cars off the operating production line which does't begin until late this year. Is it going to be more reliable than an SLR (the Mercedes equivalent) out of the box? I'd bet on it. Will it be as reliable as a mass produced Lexus? Highly doubtful, given it's a hand made car. Even Rolls Royce has their share of early production problems and it has BMW behind it and some of the finest craftsmen in the world. It's surprisingly LESS reliable than a Lexus, in areas unique to RR, why? Because it's a very small production run, hand made car. Look at the problem Toyota is now facing with their gas pedals. While some of that it bogus, you just don't know what you're going to face, even when you check off the high production protocols, and the smaller the build number, the harder it is to discover every conceivable issue. I can't think of an exotic that didn't have some teething pains.

Part of the reason the car costs so much is because of the economy of scale dealing with each and every part and trying to test each and every part. The amount of time going into each LFA is significantly more per part than a mass produced car. A simple wheel impact and failure test that could be amortized over 100,000 cars has to be spread over just 500, and so on.

I bring this up, not to raise doubts about the LFA, but to put expectation in some sense of perspective. If you're lucky and there are no problems, terrific, but if there are, don't get mad at Lexus and assume they slapped it together or didn't care, or were somehow sleeping on the job, it's just the nature of the beast and if you understand that, you're more likely to enjoy the car right out of the box.