For my 2019 ES purchase I researched invoice. The invoice on the base car is about 6.5% below MSRP (sticker) and the options are all 8% below MSRP. The destination cost is the same on both invoice and MSRP.

However, I eventually came to the conclusion that invoice is pretty meaningless today. It's all about what you can negotiate, which for the 2019 ES was well below invoice. In my experience, the only thing that will make a dealer move significantly off there price is when they are informed that you have a better offer from somewhere else.

 

I had wanted to post my thoughts earlier on this "beginning of the model year" issue but got delayed. The key is in timing (bolded above) and the time value of money, which expressed in car terms is really depreciation. Given the fact that it takes 3-4 months to special order an ES, this amounts to as much as 33.3% of the time in a typical model year that the car will be unavailable to the buyer, yet the depreciation clock is still ticking for the whole model series.

Edmunds cites first year depreciation on a 2019 ES as $6,860, which is probably on a $40,625 vehicle and amounts to $2,286 (.333 X $6,860 = $2,286) of depreciation during the time the car is still in the production system. The $2,286 missed use of the car represents 5.6% of the $40,625 MSRP for purposes of example ($2,286 / $40,625 = 5.6%).

Thus, IMHO, a purchaser should insist on at least 5.6% off an ordered car as a starting point. Another point is that the dealer will have very little invested in a special delivery car such as floor plan expense, etc. plus they get credit for 1 sale that they might not have had otherwise which can in turn affect positively their hold-back and other financial terms with Lexus. Of course, as we get further into the model year and concessions begin to climb into the 8-10% range, then the loss of use and value via depreciation becomes less of an issue.

So, 7.5% off a special order seems quite reasonable on the first day the 2020s go on sale providing someone will go for it.

 

Sounds like you're an accountant? Understand your argument, but a car doesn't depreciate at the first year rate until it starts to be driven. But in any case, it's reasonable to ask for what you quote, but it comes down to demand (or anticipated demand) for that spec'ed vehicle in your region for what the dealer will settle for. In my particular area, the dealer didn't have a single new F Sport ES on the lot. They weren't going to bend over backyards to cut a deal on a MY20, when they could just as easily sell it when it arrives. So in those cases, yes you'll pay more. There are really only two questions that matter. How hot is the market that you are in for that configuration vehicle? How much is it worth to you to get the exact car you wanted?