lesz

I don't believe that I said that the "bottom is going to fall out" on 6th Generation ES values, and that certainly was not my intent. Instead, I was trying to point out the reality,, for those who might be thinking of buying a 6th Generation ES now or in 2018 and trading it for a 2019 when they become available, that, when the 2019s become available, the value of 6th Generation ESs will drop by a noticeably greater amount than you would otherwise expect for one year's worth of depreciation. Further, the cost of moving to a 2019 will be further increased by the fact that people who are early buyers of the 2019s are not likely to be able to buy them for the 18-20% discounts from MSRP that people are getting now for 2017 ESs.

And I don't think that I suggested that either. Had I said that, I would have been been saying that, as an owner of a 2017 ES myself, I didn't follow my own advice. Actually, for those who are likely to keep their car for 4 or 5 years or more, this is a great time, with the large discounts currently available, to buy an ES. My point was that what would not make financial sense, for me, would be to buy a 2017 ES if I thought that, 18 months down the road, I'd be getting an itch to buy a 2019.

Lexusel

I really appreciate everyone's input. I think I feel much more comfortable waiting for the 2019 model. I saw an ES 350 at a Honda dealership, 2015 with 26K miles for $26,600... any thoughts on that model/price? I am thinking of trading in my old pilot touring and using this to get me by then passing it on to my girls when I am ready for a new model. I still have a bit of daily shuttling of kids to do... so I am thinking holding off is good. My pilot has 192K miles so the debate is keep or trade for something like this ES.

newyerker

i think thats a pretty good price for a 2015, and you can prolly bargain further with options u have like the trade in.

biglexfan

If this is indeed the 2019 version, it is worth waiting in my opinion.

http://www.carscoops.com/2017/09/fut...ks-its-gs.html

bc6152

Looks pretty nice to me. I'd buy it in a minute and will wait until next fall although these photos are pure conjecture and theory.

I plan on attending the New York auto show in April and will take photos if the car is shown.

sonatine

Damn that looks good. Was actually going to purchase a 2018 soon. Discounts are high and reliability is flawless this deep into a refresh.

oldcajun

When you look at pricing, remember that much of the depreciation on the current model will be offset by the large discounts now available. The 2019 will sell at MSRP for a while just like most new Lexus models. There may also be a significant price increase on the 2019 depending on where Lexus places it in their line-up and if they drop the GS.
Steve

lesz

That is definitely true. Right now, people should be getting discounts on remaining 2017s of close to 20% off from MSRP, and, even though the 2018s have only been available for a couple of weeks, Lexus is already offering a $1000 rebate on them. When I bought my 2017 ES about this time last year, even that early in the model year, I was able to get a discount of around 15% off from MSRP. I suspect that the same thing should be true for the 2018 ES right now.

When the 2019s become available, any discounting will be minimal until well into the 2019 model year, and, even then, discounting is not likely to approach the discounting currently available on the Generation 6 ES vehicles.

I don't know how close the 2019 ES will come to looking like the picture in the link, but I think that the picture in the link is one of a car that, to me, looks to be very attractive.

I notice, in the article, they say that the 2019 will have "more aggressive" styling. To me the car in the picture looks to have what I would consider to be less aggressive styling than the 2016-2018 ES, and it has more of an understated look that is a throwback to the look of the Generation 5 ES (except for the larger grille).

When I had my 2017 ES in to the dealer for the 12 month service a couple of weeks ago, one of the sales people at the dealership told me that he had, just the day before, been at a corporate training session and that they were told that the GS was, in fact, going to be dropped for the 2019 model year and that the Generation 7 ES was, in fact, going to be offered in FWD and AWD versions. He also was told that the GX was going to be dropped, too. I find that sad, considering that the LX will be Lexus' only truck-based and full time 4WD vehicle, which means that those who want such a Lexus vehicle will only have a choice that costs around $100,000.

bc6152

Hmmmm. Seems that those early rumors regarding the demise of the GS and the availability of AWD in the 2019 Executive Sedan might be coming true. If so, I see the price going
nowhere but up and at a considerable difference that exists today. One article online suggests that an AWD version of the ES would be in the range of $60k and an equipped FWD
ES will be north of $50k. We'll have to wait and see as all this information is speculative and pure conjecture as is the rendering photo of the 2019 in another post.

My money is on the information you received at your dealership Les.

sderman

I welcome an AWD ES, having had 18 years of ES experience (currently driving a 2014). Based on what I understand about my AWD 2017 RX, the SUV primarily operates in the FWD mode most of the time and goes to 4 wheel drive only when it needs it. On the highway I get 26 MPG in the much heavier RX (non-hybrid) so I would expect that an AWD ES would not suffer significantly mileage-wise relative to the FWD version. And here in the northeast the occasional traction advantage of AWD would be appreciated in the winter.