A dangerous Prius driver recently totaled my previous 2013 model year car, so we were in the market for a replacement. With a 66mi/day daily drive for work, the Lexus ES300h was a no brainer. We are in the San Francisco Bay Area and picked up the ES with Luxury Package, Blind Spot, HiD, Rear Sunshade, HDD Nav w/ backup cam, parking assist, rain sensing wipers, leather trimmed **** and wheel, trunk mat, cargo net, wheel locks, rear bumper app - MSRP 46,638 for 41,800. That was $1600 under the KBB Fair Purchase Price for our region, $4,838 under MSRP. Seemed like a good deal to us for our area! It helped to have a price from a dealer from a less reputable city across the bay to bargain with.

 

Just curious on some feedback. Looking at replacing my 2007 ES350 with a 2013 ES300h. I am looking at the Navigation/Premium Audio Package (Luxury package, HID, park assist, blind spot, heated steering wheel, rear sunshade, rain sensing wipers, accessories: trunk mat, cargo net, wheel locks, rear bumper app). MSRP is $46788 and been quoted $42700....seem like a good deal? I have not seen the true invoice but looking at Edmunds it shows the invoice at $43,691....

Other background...in Richmond, VA so sales tax is 4%. Pretty much OTD I am looking at at about $44,900 (give or take a few bucks).

 

So, do you think this is a good deal guys?


Current lease: 2010 ES 350, 42 month lease with 15K miles a year. Lease ends in November and am at 65300 miles now plus my tires are pretty much shot and the center vents paint came off as air freshener leaked on it, plus back left was painted a but due to scratches, not major but still had to get it painted with factory paint. Current lease at $499/Mo.

Expenses: Over miles about $3500-$4000
Vent: $200
Tires: $450 installed.

So I am offered and presented this deal yesterday.

Lease offer: 2013 Lexus ES 350 fully loaded except ultra luxury package. 2K down only for inception fees including first month payment, gets me out of my current upside down lease clean and clear 4 months early without any money out of pocket for miles or fixes for 42 mos with 12K miles at $547/mo.

What do you guys think? Please let me know your thoughts. I'd appreciate it.

 

Tony - without knowing all the details like msrp, selling price, etc, it's hard to evaluate your offer. However, on a per mile cost basis, your old lease cost you around 29 cents per mile (more if you paid drive offs). The new lease offer comes to around 59 cents per mile if you complete it as stated. Obviously, there's negative equity involved and that's never good when leasing. On a strictly financial basis, you might want to consider biting the bullet and buying out your current lease and waiting 12-18 months to mitigate some or all of the negative equity before trading. Also, if your annual mileage needs haven't changed, you'll probably be in the same situation in 3 years so you're probably a good candidate for buying rather than leasing.

If you can provide the numbers used to calculate your lease offer, we can probably provide some more detailed advice.

Let us know how it goes.

Bill G

 

This is the main reason I will never lease a car. You never know when something will change and you need to drive more than you originally planned.

 

Tony, I agree with Bill G about needing more details to give you an accurate answer. Your payoff is going to be the lease residual plus the remaining lease payments. How does this number compare to the market value of the car? Since you know you are going to be out up to $4,000 for excess mileage (and given the mileage you put on the vehicle) the prudent thing to do is probably buy the 2010 at the end of the lease and continue to drive it.

As for a new lease what are the numbers for at least 15k mi? If you will continue to have comparable annual mileage, with a 12k lease (and even a 15k lease) you are just compounding your issue and pushing it into the future. With the miles you drive you are a better candidate for purchase instead of leasing.

It is interesting to see how this works with Lexus. A buddy that has leased several Acura MDXs has, in each of his last two 36 mo. leases, been offered, after 24 months and with substantial excess mileage, a new comparably equipped MDX with no out of pocket money and a slightly lower lease payment. In that case rolling into a new lease was a no brainer.

 

rboyle - that car sounds like the one we just bought in Northern California. I recommend you try pricing your car out on Kelly Blue Book's site - it will give you a "Fair Purchase Price" which is based on purchase prices in your area. As you see from my post above yours we were actually able to get a deal $1,600 under the KBB Fair Purchase Price - so you may be able to get some more off your price, unless supply is really short in your location.

 

Thanks guys for the feedback. After some more digging I found out its being given to me for 2k under invoice.
Invoice is about $41,3-- and spoke to one of the reps at a huge delalerahip near me called Ray Catena, he said this a phenomenal deal if they are getting me out clean.

Btw, was kinda considering an Infiniti M and or BMW 528, thoughts? In comparison to the ES.

 

Very hard to compare the M and 5 Series to the ES350. Different segments, RWD/AWD, price points etc. All three are nice cars in their respective segments..

 

So if you had the choice which car would you go for out of the 3? in the end considering everything esp reliability and maintenance etc.

 

Pricing aside, I'd opt for either a 5 Series or M. I usually don't keep cars much beyond the warranty period so reliability and maintenance wouldn't be a big factor for me.

I have been spoiled by the excellent reliability of my two ES350's.

 

Agreed, this is going to be my third ES, i just love the way it rides, reliability is key - no issues at all! where as Ive heard from different people that the M or Infinitis in general are just bad on Gas mileage, and BMW and Audi's are very huge on electrical problems, they are nice cars but i wouldn't want it in the shop every other month.

The ES has been great, its funny how some threads people are comparing it to Chevy's and the new Accord, the new accord is nice but is it worth the pricing? because for a few grand more you get into a LEXUS.

 

Keep in mind, those 3 also require premium. The ES just requires regular, so that's a 45 cent a gallon (in IL at least) savings up front.

 

The 5 Series and M mentioned above compete more directly with the GS than the ES. The ES has a different set of competitors.

It seems that the reliability of the Audi A6 and BMW 5 Series has been improving, but not quite at Lexus ES and GS levels yet.

 

Tony - this is a decision only you can make - I would go with the ES - but keep in mind the dealer is not "giving" you anything. They are in business to make a profit and if they don't, they won't be in business long. Somewhere in this deal, they plan to make money, whether it's in the lease itself, or your trade in vehicle. Again, one cannot evaluate how good a "deal" is unless you have all the factors that make up the calculation of the lease payment. You sound like your mind is made up so I hope everything goes well for you and that your new lease doesn't end up like the one you are in now (way over on the miles).

Take care,

Bill G