This is really a general used car question, but I though you fellow Lexus people might be able to shed some light on this.

I know that an '00 ES300 (or any other vehicle) with "X" miles will be worth about $3500 more than a similar '99 with 15,000 more miles. But following Kelley Blue Book and Edmunds.com for a few years now, it doesn't seem that the depreciation is a linear $292 per month. I didn't realize until today that this was the case, but I also did not notice the pattern. In other words, if I know that my vehicle will depreciate $3500 between now and next October 28th, what is the normal pattern of deprecation, if such a pattern exists. I would assume, but am not sure, that it's greater between July 1 and Oct 1 than in any other 3 month period...yes? NO?

 

huh? all i know is that my 94 is still about 10k.

 

Check the archives, this has been discussed numerous times before.











lol, j/k


I am by no means an expert at depreciation patterns of cars, but I wouldn't say that there is a fixed depreciation rate for the ES or any vehicle for that matter. In very general terms, yes, there might be a pattern, but there are so many other factors such as current supply and demand in your area, reputation (If a mag rates a car good, next thing ya know, more people want it), and even actual car specifications (a car without popular options and/or in an unpopular color not hold its value as well). KBB and Edmunds offer very general data, the best indicator of what your car is worth is looking at similar cars for sale in your area and comparing your car against the ones on sale already. Not sure how you figured out a depreciation rate of $3500/yr. A car will generally depreciate a lot in the first few years (especially in the first), and then the rate will level off. After a certain point, the depreciation becomes pretty irrelevant. For example, a good condition '92 ES will sell for the same price as an average condition '93. When cars get beyond a certain age, condition and milage are the primary factors, the age becomes a secondary factor.

As for cars depreciating more in July-Oct, I don't think so. I'd say on avereage the cars depreciate most more towards the end of the year, say Nov-January. This is when the new models become common on the streets, and demand for older cars will go down. the new models will hit the dealership lots in August or September, but the value of the outgoing models will still remain relatively strong until more of the newer models hit the streets.

I hope this answers the questions you had.....