Those who lease: thoughts on Model 3 Lease (details included)
#16
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#17
#18
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Thread Starter
Interesting - just looked on Lexus of Orlando site and you can lease an LX570 for $825/month with $5k down. Considering a new LX is likely around $90k vs. a $50k Model 3, it tells me the Model 3 lease is quite a bit out of whack ($4k down, $727/month). So for an extra $1k down and $100/month you get a car with MSRP $40k higher.
#19
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#20
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Interesting - just looked on Lexus of Orlando site and you can lease an LX570 for $825/month with $5k down. Considering a new LX is likely around $90k vs. a $50k Model 3, it tells me the Model 3 lease is quite a bit out of whack ($4k down, $727/month). So for an extra $1k down and $100/month you get a car with MSRP $40k higher.
#21
Pole Position
The OP forgot to mention charging cost. The annual cost to charge a Tesla is $540 so that adds over three years $1,620 for a total of $31,620 over three years or $878 a month. Leasing a Model 3 is a personal decision but I can not imagine spending $878 on this car that after three years you do not even own with their quality issues, dependability issues and that interior. Don't know your personal situation but if your house is paid for, kids education funded and all other debt paid off than go for it. I retired from the mutual fund industry. So here is my breakdown cost. If you are 35 years old and kept your current car for these next three years and invested the $878 in a S&P Index fund and after the three years did not add a penny to it at 65 years old you would have over $500,000. If older less if younger more. Listen to Dave Ramsey, a pretty smart guy. He says if you can not pay cash for a car than you can not afford that car. he also states never my a new car unless you pay cash and are a millionaire.
#22
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Thread Starter
The OP forgot to mention charging cost. The annual cost to charge a Tesla is $540 so that adds over three years $1,620 for a total of $31,620 over three years or $878 a month. Leasing a Model 3 is a personal decision but I can not imagine spending $878 on this car that after three years you do not even own with their quality issues, dependability issues and that interior. Don't know your personal situation but if your house is paid for, kids education funded and all other debt paid off than go for it. I retired from the mutual fund industry. So here is my breakdown cost. If you are 35 years old and kept your current car for these next three years and invested the $878 in a S&P Index fund and after the three years did not add a penny to it at 65 years old you would have over $500,000. If older less if younger more. Listen to Dave Ramsey, a pretty smart guy. He says if you can not pay cash for a car than you can not afford that car. he also states never my a new car unless you pay cash and are a millionaire.
And I understand the angle you're coming from with the investment of the $878/mo analogy. However.. my calculations don't show that a new Model 3 would actually cost me $700-$800/month, so to invest that $878/mo for 3 years is not completely accurate. It shows my true cost of acquisition spread over 3 years would be around $400/month ABOVE what I currently have (which I own, but will continue to lose value quickly over the next 3 years). If I keep my LS for another 3 years and want to get something else (let's say I get a 2017 LS460), I have to be prepared for my 460 to be worth like $5k as a 12 year old car. So, while I own it outright, it's not exactly an attractive "asset" to hold onto and it has costs associated with it. My wife is interested in having me take the LX and have her drive something new ("new" is pronounced "not my LS" which she does not like driving). If I can get her to wait 2 years, I'll pull the trigger on a new Audi E-Tron GT when that comes out. If not, I want to find something she'll like and she loves BMW 5 series and likes the Model 3. And I really like the model 3 interior - beautiful glass roof, minimalist design, still the best screen in the entire industry, etc. And driving a Tesla is like nothing else - there truly is no comparison to that feeling. I know that's subjective, but that's my opinion of driving all Tesla models.
I know you aren't a Tesla or Musk fan from our prior exchanges but certainly appreciate & respect your viewpoint and thought process.
#23
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Do you add the cost of gas into the price of your car payments? I know I certainly don't. My wife used to pay about $150/month in gas for her CX-5. In the 3 months since we got her Model 3, our electricity bill has gone up $15/month so there's $1,600 right there. Our solar panels get switched on in about a week or so and it should bring our electricity bill to $0 which will be pretty sweet as well
#24
Lexus Fanatic
#25
Lexus Fanatic
For those who are well-versed and experienced in leasing and the structure of deals, what do you think of the Model 3 lease? Below is a snapshot of the details from the Tesla website - I don't know how to reverse engineer the math to see what the MF is, etc. Tesla does not seem to let you play with this and I'm not sure if you can negotiate if you go into the dealer..?
Here's some of my math:
Here's some of my math:
- $50k price of Model 3 long distance, 15k miles/year, paying extra for color choice (didn't know black was only "free" color), I don't see that Tesla is factoring in the $3,750 credit into this final price, so below math may drop a bit.
- $4k due at signing, $727/month for 36 months = total of $30k over 3 years
- Since I currently drive an older car (2010), I assume I will lose about $8k to $10k in value over the next 36 months.
- I also fill my car up every week @ $60/week, so $240/month x 36 months = $8,640
- At a minimum, I would spend $1k/year on maintenance that I wouldn't pay in an EV. This comes to at least $3k over the course of 3 years
- Therefore, between depreciation, gas cost, and non-EV maintenance, I will "lose" and "spend" somewhere between $19k and $21k by keeping my car for 3 years
- This means my true differential cost is $9k to $11k over the course of 3 years to have a Tesla Model 3 ($300 to $400 per month)
On Tesla USA it says cash price of $41500 for the fully loaded model.
Last edited by Toys4RJill; 04-18-19 at 08:07 PM.
#26
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Thread Starter
- Do you have to pay for maintenance on a car you own? Yes. Often times those are covered as part of a lease payment (depends on manufacturer)
- Once you have exceeded manufacturer warranty and something goes wrong on a car you own, do you have to pay for that? Yes. Not with a new car since you will be under warranty.
- Does your car continue to depreciate on a daily basis? Yes. So when you go to get rid of it for something else, it has continued to lose value. On a lease, you're also paying down the depreciation.
- Since this thread is comparing my 2010 LS ongoing ownership costs to the concept of leasing an EV, you also have to factor in costs on the Lexus that inherently don't exist on an EV (gas, oil changes, water pump, etc)
I have never leased, never bought new, and haven't had a car payment in so long I can't even remember the specific year I last had one. But to think that once you pay a car off means you have no expenses is just false logic. It simply means you no longer stroke a check to the bank each month.
Last edited by jrmckinley; 04-19-19 at 05:06 AM.
#27
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Thread Starter
So let's say based in your calculation of $30K per 3/year lease. You like your car model so much you keep leasing your Tesla 3. It would cost you $90K for 3 three leases. You get to go 135k miles in that. Over the course of 9 years, how much interest would have paid?
On Tesla USA it says cash price of $41500 for the fully loaded model.
On Tesla USA it says cash price of $41500 for the fully loaded model.
I don't know where you're getting $41,500 - a fully loaded model 3 (performance model with advanced auto pilot) is more like $65k before the tax credit. My $50k was based on a non-black (black is "free"), long range model (not performance) without advanced auto pilot.
#28
Lexus Fanatic
You said the lease in your original post was $30K over 3 years for a 50K model.
That is:
60K over 6 years,
90K over 9 years,
120K over 12 years.
I simply do not understand why are just looking at the short term 3 years. What are you going to do after your 3 year lease is up?
Did you read the details of my first post outlining this in detail with my 2010 LS...? Owning a car does not mean you don't have costs associated with owning it.
Did not say it does not.
- Once you have exceeded manufacturer warranty and something goes wrong on a car you own, do you have to pay for that? Yes. Not with a new car since you will be under warranty.
Or, nothing goes wrong. The acquisition costs associated with leasing are far higher, so if you own your Tesla 3, the 9 year example of $90K (3 leases) vs $50K (buy). That is $40K you could use for repairs, or the repairs might not be needed
- Does your car continue to depreciate on a daily basis? Yes. So when you go to get rid of it for something else, it has continued to lose value. On a lease, you're also paying down the depreciation.
Not a justification to lease. Looking at the long term, it costs so much to lease a Tesla 3 over 9 years vs buying new.
- Since this thread is comparing my 2010 LS ongoing ownership costs to the concept of leasing an EV, you also have to factor in costs on the Lexus that inherently don't exist on an EV (gas, oil changes, water pump, etc)
Water pump might not break in the 9 years of ownership. The Tesla electric motors could break. Or neither for either car.
I have never leased, never bought new, and haven't had a car payment in so long I can't even remember the specific year I last had one. But to think that once you pay a car off means you have no expenses is just false logic. It simply means you no longer stroke a check to the bank each month.
These expenses of owning are not the same as saying your car is not Free and Clear
Did not say it does not.
- Once you have exceeded manufacturer warranty and something goes wrong on a car you own, do you have to pay for that? Yes. Not with a new car since you will be under warranty.
Or, nothing goes wrong. The acquisition costs associated with leasing are far higher, so if you own your Tesla 3, the 9 year example of $90K (3 leases) vs $50K (buy). That is $40K you could use for repairs, or the repairs might not be needed
- Does your car continue to depreciate on a daily basis? Yes. So when you go to get rid of it for something else, it has continued to lose value. On a lease, you're also paying down the depreciation.
Not a justification to lease. Looking at the long term, it costs so much to lease a Tesla 3 over 9 years vs buying new.
- Since this thread is comparing my 2010 LS ongoing ownership costs to the concept of leasing an EV, you also have to factor in costs on the Lexus that inherently don't exist on an EV (gas, oil changes, water pump, etc)
Water pump might not break in the 9 years of ownership. The Tesla electric motors could break. Or neither for either car.
I have never leased, never bought new, and haven't had a car payment in so long I can't even remember the specific year I last had one. But to think that once you pay a car off means you have no expenses is just false logic. It simply means you no longer stroke a check to the bank each month.
These expenses of owning are not the same as saying your car is not Free and Clear
Last edited by Toys4RJill; 04-19-19 at 05:38 AM.
#29
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
there’s lots of ‘pretty smart guys’ who have done great buying new cars, or shock horror, leasing them, lol...
#30
Pole Position
we can all live like monks and die with a pile of money in the bank for someone else to spend or not, i get it. Dave Ramsey will be dead one day too and probably leave a pile of money for his family. Good for him. Not everyone’s goal though.
there’s lots of ‘pretty smart guys’ who have done great buying new cars, or shock horror, leasing them, lol...
there’s lots of ‘pretty smart guys’ who have done great buying new cars, or shock horror, leasing them, lol...
Last edited by Freds430; 04-19-19 at 06:25 AM.