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Those who lease: thoughts on Model 3 Lease (details included)

 
Old 04-18-19, 11:43 AM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by RNM GS3 View Post
From my experience, 10 years ago, you can easily lease a $50k vehicle like RX or ES for about $500 per month with $0 down.
fify..........

More seriously, this is local, $3k down, 10k mi.



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Old 04-18-19, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by bitkahuna View Post
fify..........

More seriously, this is local, $3k down, 10k mi.

The local version of this lists the MSRP at just over $40,000 and the lease price does not include state and local sales taxes.
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Old 04-18-19, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by oldcajun View Post
The local version of this lists the MSRP at just over $40,000 and the lease price does not include state and local sales taxes.
Interesting - just looked on Lexus of Orlando site and you can lease an LX570 for $825/month with $5k down. Considering a new LX is likely around $90k vs. a $50k Model 3, it tells me the Model 3 lease is quite a bit out of whack ($4k down, $727/month). So for an extra $1k down and $100/month you get a car with MSRP $40k higher.
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Old 04-18-19, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by oldcajun View Post
The local version of this lists the MSRP at just over $40,000 and the lease price does not include state and local sales taxes.
that image shows msrp is $46479.
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Old 04-18-19, 01:45 PM
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Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
Interesting - just looked on Lexus of Orlando site and you can lease an LX570 for $825/month with $5k down. Considering a new LX is likely around $90k vs. a $50k Model 3, it tells me the Model 3 lease is quite a bit out of whack ($4k down, $727/month). So for an extra $1k down and $100/month you get a car with MSRP $40k higher.
Not saying what you’ve seen is, but dealer ads are often highly deceptive, showing a deal on some ‘stripper’ (base) version that they might not in fact have. Plus 10k mi. (i think your 3 deal is 15k mi.)... maybe taxes not included, etc.
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Old 04-18-19, 03:03 PM
  #21  
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The OP forgot to mention charging cost. The annual cost to charge a Tesla is $540 so that adds over three years $1,620 for a total of $31,620 over three years or $878 a month. Leasing a Model 3 is a personal decision but I can not imagine spending $878 on this car that after three years you do not even own with their quality issues, dependability issues and that interior. Don't know your personal situation but if your house is paid for, kids education funded and all other debt paid off than go for it. I retired from the mutual fund industry. So here is my breakdown cost. If you are 35 years old and kept your current car for these next three years and invested the $878 in a S&P Index fund and after the three years did not add a penny to it at 65 years old you would have over $500,000. If older less if younger more. Listen to Dave Ramsey, a pretty smart guy. He says if you can not pay cash for a car than you can not afford that car. he also states never my a new car unless you pay cash and are a millionaire.
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Old 04-18-19, 06:34 PM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by Freds430 View Post
The OP forgot to mention charging cost. The annual cost to charge a Tesla is $540 so that adds over three years $1,620 for a total of $31,620 over three years or $878 a month. Leasing a Model 3 is a personal decision but I can not imagine spending $878 on this car that after three years you do not even own with their quality issues, dependability issues and that interior. Don't know your personal situation but if your house is paid for, kids education funded and all other debt paid off than go for it. I retired from the mutual fund industry. So here is my breakdown cost. If you are 35 years old and kept your current car for these next three years and invested the $878 in a S&P Index fund and after the three years did not add a penny to it at 65 years old you would have over $500,000. If older less if younger more. Listen to Dave Ramsey, a pretty smart guy. He says if you can not pay cash for a car than you can not afford that car. he also states never my a new car unless you pay cash and are a millionaire.
Agree, forgot charging cost. I won't go into my personal situation, but I am in a good spot and don't have any concerns. Dave Ramsey would approve of my situation... I'm 39, have never bought a new car in my life, always buy used luxury cars around the 4-5 year mark and drive them into the ground (hence why I own a 2010 LX and 2010 LS). I have no reservations about outright buying the Model 3 or financing it if the math works to my advantage to keep my cash in the bank. I'm investigating leasing (still not sure it's right for me on the model 3 because I think I'd come out ahead $5k to $7k just buying it and selling it at the 3 year mark) mainly because I am intrigued by the potential flexibility it could offer down the road.

And I understand the angle you're coming from with the investment of the $878/mo analogy. However.. my calculations don't show that a new Model 3 would actually cost me $700-$800/month, so to invest that $878/mo for 3 years is not completely accurate. It shows my true cost of acquisition spread over 3 years would be around $400/month ABOVE what I currently have (which I own, but will continue to lose value quickly over the next 3 years). If I keep my LS for another 3 years and want to get something else (let's say I get a 2017 LS460), I have to be prepared for my 460 to be worth like $5k as a 12 year old car. So, while I own it outright, it's not exactly an attractive "asset" to hold onto and it has costs associated with it. My wife is interested in having me take the LX and have her drive something new ("new" is pronounced "not my LS" which she does not like driving). If I can get her to wait 2 years, I'll pull the trigger on a new Audi E-Tron GT when that comes out. If not, I want to find something she'll like and she loves BMW 5 series and likes the Model 3. And I really like the model 3 interior - beautiful glass roof, minimalist design, still the best screen in the entire industry, etc. And driving a Tesla is like nothing else - there truly is no comparison to that feeling. I know that's subjective, but that's my opinion of driving all Tesla models.

I know you aren't a Tesla or Musk fan from our prior exchanges but certainly appreciate & respect your viewpoint and thought process.
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Old 04-18-19, 06:57 PM
  #23  
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Do you add the cost of gas into the price of your car payments? I know I certainly don't. My wife used to pay about $150/month in gas for her CX-5. In the 3 months since we got her Model 3, our electricity bill has gone up $15/month so there's $1,600 right there. Our solar panels get switched on in about a week or so and it should bring our electricity bill to $0 which will be pretty sweet as well
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Old 04-18-19, 07:39 PM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by bitkahuna View Post
very interesting analysis, and i'm glad you factor in current 'older' car costs as many people seem to consider their older cars 'free' once paid for.
How does this comment make any sense? Once you pay off your car, it's yours.
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Old 04-18-19, 07:44 PM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
For those who are well-versed and experienced in leasing and the structure of deals, what do you think of the Model 3 lease? Below is a snapshot of the details from the Tesla website - I don't know how to reverse engineer the math to see what the MF is, etc. Tesla does not seem to let you play with this and I'm not sure if you can negotiate if you go into the dealer..?

Here's some of my math:
  • $50k price of Model 3 long distance, 15k miles/year, paying extra for color choice (didn't know black was only "free" color), I don't see that Tesla is factoring in the $3,750 credit into this final price, so below math may drop a bit.
  • $4k due at signing, $727/month for 36 months = total of $30k over 3 years
  • Since I currently drive an older car (2010), I assume I will lose about $8k to $10k in value over the next 36 months.
    • I also fill my car up every week @ $60/week, so $240/month x 36 months = $8,640
    • At a minimum, I would spend $1k/year on maintenance that I wouldn't pay in an EV. This comes to at least $3k over the course of 3 years
    • Therefore, between depreciation, gas cost, and non-EV maintenance, I will "lose" and "spend" somewhere between $19k and $21k by keeping my car for 3 years
  • This means my true differential cost is $9k to $11k over the course of 3 years to have a Tesla Model 3 ($300 to $400 per month)
Interested for thoughts on my math, things I'm not considering, etc. Thanks,
So let's say based in your calculation of $30K per 3/year lease. You like your car model so much you keep leasing your Tesla 3. It would cost you $90K for 3 three leases. You get to go 135k miles in that. Over the course of 9 years, how much interest would have paid?

On Tesla USA it says cash price of $41500 for the fully loaded model.

Last edited by LexsCTJill; 04-18-19 at 08:07 PM.
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Old 04-19-19, 04:59 AM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill View Post
How does this comment make any sense? Once you pay off your car, it's yours.
Did you read the details of my first post outlining this in detail with my 2010 LS...? Owning a car does not mean you don't have costs associated with owning it.
- Do you have to pay for maintenance on a car you own? Yes. Often times those are covered as part of a lease payment (depends on manufacturer)
- Once you have exceeded manufacturer warranty and something goes wrong on a car you own, do you have to pay for that? Yes. Not with a new car since you will be under warranty.
- Does your car continue to depreciate on a daily basis? Yes. So when you go to get rid of it for something else, it has continued to lose value. On a lease, you're also paying down the depreciation.
- Since this thread is comparing my 2010 LS ongoing ownership costs to the concept of leasing an EV, you also have to factor in costs on the Lexus that inherently don't exist on an EV (gas, oil changes, water pump, etc)

I have never leased, never bought new, and haven't had a car payment in so long I can't even remember the specific year I last had one. But to think that once you pay a car off means you have no expenses is just false logic. It simply means you no longer stroke a check to the bank each month.

Last edited by jrmckinley; 04-19-19 at 05:06 AM.
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Old 04-19-19, 05:05 AM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill View Post
So let's say based in your calculation of $30K per 3/year lease. You like your car model so much you keep leasing your Tesla 3. It would cost you $90K for 3 three leases. You get to go 135k miles in that. Over the course of 9 years, how much interest would have paid?

On Tesla USA it says cash price of $41500 for the fully loaded model.
I'm not trying to turn this into a "lease vs. buy" discussion. I'm trying to compare the costs of owning an older vehicle to those of buying or leasing a Tesla where I'm comparing the cost of ownership over 3 years, not 9.

I don't know where you're getting $41,500 - a fully loaded model 3 (performance model with advanced auto pilot) is more like $65k before the tax credit. My $50k was based on a non-black (black is "free"), long range model (not performance) without advanced auto pilot.
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Old 04-19-19, 05:24 AM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
I'm not trying to turn this into a "lease vs. buy" discussion. I'm trying to compare the costs of owning an older vehicle to those of buying or leasing a Tesla where I'm comparing the cost of ownership over 3 years, not 9.
.
I am not trying to turn this into a lease vs buy discussion. I don't think it is possible to compare the cost of a 3 years of leasing to owning an older vehicle. The reason is, you are going to have to have a vehicle after your 3 years lease is up. I think it is fundamentally impossible to not look at the long term costs of leasing.

You said the lease in your original post was $30K over 3 years for a 50K model.

That is:
60K over 6 years,
90K over 9 years,
120K over 12 years.

I simply do not understand why are just looking at the short term 3 years. What are you going to do after your 3 year lease is up?


Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
Did you read the details of my first post outlining this in detail with my 2010 LS...? Owning a car does not mean you don't have costs associated with owning it.

Did not say it does not.

- Once you have exceeded manufacturer warranty and something goes wrong on a car you own, do you have to pay for that? Yes. Not with a new car since you will be under warranty.

Or, nothing goes wrong. The acquisition costs associated with leasing are far higher, so if you own your Tesla 3, the 9 year example of $90K (3 leases) vs $50K (buy). That is $40K you could use for repairs, or the repairs might not be needed

- Does your car continue to depreciate on a daily basis? Yes. So when you go to get rid of it for something else, it has continued to lose value. On a lease, you're also paying down the depreciation.

Not a justification to lease. Looking at the long term, it costs so much to lease a Tesla 3 over 9 years vs buying new.

- Since this thread is comparing my 2010 LS ongoing ownership costs to the concept of leasing an EV, you also have to factor in costs on the Lexus that inherently don't exist on an EV (gas, oil changes, water pump, etc)

Water pump might not break in the 9 years of ownership. The Tesla electric motors could break. Or neither for either car.

I have never leased, never bought new, and haven't had a car payment in so long I can't even remember the specific year I last had one. But to think that once you pay a car off means you have no expenses is just false logic. It simply means you no longer stroke a check to the bank each month.

These expenses of owning are not the same as saying your car is not Free and Clear

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Old 04-19-19, 05:28 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by Freds430 View Post
Listen to Dave Ramsey, a pretty smart guy. He says if you can not pay cash for a car than you can not afford that car. he also states never my a new car unless you pay cash and are a millionaire.
we can all live like monks and die with a pile of money in the bank for someone else to spend or not, i get it. Dave Ramsey will be dead one day too and probably leave a pile of money for his family. Good for him. Not everyone’s goal though.

there’s lots of ‘pretty smart guys’ who have done great buying new cars, or shock horror, leasing them, lol...
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Old 04-19-19, 06:02 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by bitkahuna View Post
we can all live like monks and die with a pile of money in the bank for someone else to spend or not, i get it. Dave Ramsey will be dead one day too and probably leave a pile of money for his family. Good for him. Not everyone’s goal though.

there’s lots of ‘pretty smart guys’ who have done great buying new cars, or shock horror, leasing them, lol...
Dave Ramsey and I are hardly living like monks. What we both did is live like no one else so later we can live like no one else. Let me state Dave Ramsey's philosophy again. If you have a millions dollars than go have fun and pay cash for a new car. Not living like monk's is exactly what has gotten Americans into this situation. Six out of ten american's don't have $400 saved for an emergency. Half have nothing saved for retirement. The other half between 55 and 64 have $107,000 saved for retirement. If you listened to his show outside of student loans car loans are the crippler of people living their dream. The average car loan is $550 a month and the average term is 66 months. Well over 90% that call his show looking for some kind of help are ridiculously upside down with their car.

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