I agree, the deals on the ES are limited (although starting to improve). But this is simply due to supply and demand. The ES sells wildly, and therefor there is no need for Lexus to drastically ax pricing. The Avalon, on the other hand, collects dust on lots. It would make perfect sense one could get 12.5% off msrp.
Personally, I think both are very nice cars and one cannot go wrong with either. The Avalon, despite it's ridiculous grille, has a stealth appearance- sleek roofline, long, trim body, and there are very few on the road.

 

I agree one person is a REALLY small sample

 

They are still selling in my area.....Though I'll admit not in the numbers of RAV-4s or CR-Vs.

One large American-market sedan, though, whose sales DO seem to be dropping, is the Kia Cadenza. Some of those Cadenza sales may be shifting to Genesis.

 

Should be interesting to see how the 2020 Cadenza does. Your only option if you don't want to go Genesis or k900. Seems to be more of es 350 competition.

 

I hope the 2019 Avalon is significantly better than the 2018 Avalon. I had an '18 as a rental car a few weeks ago and put about 700 miles on it- I was incredibly underwhelmed and frankly pretty disappointed. I remember the days when the Avalon was called the "baby LS" whereas the Avalon I had felt like a "bigger Camry or Corolla". There was no feeling of luxury, didn't feel solid, had noticeable road noise, interior felt poorly designed, material quality seemed sub-par, etc. If Avalon is the flagship sedan in the Toyota lineup, I expect to feel it when I sit in it compared to a Camry or Corolla. Certainly wasn't the case. Based on my limited experience after that, I'd spring for the ES in a heartbeat.

 

The 2019 Avalon is a significant improvement over the 2018 Avalon. I'd still rather have an ES.

 

Did you drive the Avalon XLE? Due mainly to the tires and suspension, it has more of a luxury feel than in its more sport-oriented versions.

 

Yes it was XLE. No moonroof but seemed to have all other options.

 

I test drove new 7ES with 18" rims on sporty Dunlop Sport SP 050 Series 45 tires too, but I thought the ride was fine, and better than the old 6.5ES.
Did you check the early morning cold tire pressures on your test vehicle?

I'd imagine the 7ES would ride better again on Pirelli Cinturato P7 touring tires, because I have used both OEM sports Dunlop SP Sport 050 & aftermarket touring Pirelli Cinturato P7 18" 45 Series on my 4GS; on a 4GS, I'd rate the P7's as satisfactory, or at best okay.
I still have a 3GS on the same Pirelli Cinturato P7's with 17" 55 Series, and I can tell you the ride and noise is better again, and more decent.
I still have a Lexus with Bridgestone Potenza RE92 or 93 if I remember correctly - that is 15" and 65 Series, and it has the smoothest and quietest ride.
The OEM Potenza RE88 @ 15" & 65 Series was smoother and quieter again, but a set only lasted about 20,000 miles!

Like Jill said, sure the suspension can be designed to better cope with low profile tires in the first place like the new 7ES on OEM 18" 45 Series, however, if the same new 7ES ever uses 17" on 55 Series tires - the taller profile always rides more smoothly and quietly again.
Jill is saying that the suspension can be designed to better cope with low profile tires.
However, you're saying that for any given suspension tune, the taller profiles always outright ride more smoothly and quietly.

It's sort of like Jill saying that despite a poor diet, poor exercise, and poor health, genetically tall children can still grow up to be reasonably tall.
However, you're saying that for any given set of genes - a superior diet, superior exercise, and superior health - will always result in taller offspring.
.

 

Did you drive the limited?

 

If you look at the online ads for the Avalon (at least some of them), they're using the Waltrips and drift racer Ken Gushi to do a father/son go racing thing. Obviously they're trying to get younger buyers than the 60-70 year olds. Maybe 40-50 year olds. They can do both, because the side and back profile is good and the car seems to get decent reviews.

They absolutely have to get rid of the boy racer gape mouth front ends. And you have to offer AWD on this car. It's not a need to have, it's a want to have. It adds a touch of luxe to this car's credentials. It's already a crowded market with crossovers packed with AWD. Wouldn't hurt to offer it.

The Camry? Well it's looking more and more ridiculous with its attempt to look like a coupe. Just saw one today and those "dripping" taillights look gaudy on this sedan.

 

The old 3rd gen Avalon achieved peak sales of a lusty 95,000 units/year USA back in 2005.
The old firm riding 4th gen Avalon achieved peak sales of a decent 71,000 units/year USA back in 2013.
Unfortunately, this new sporty looking big mouth 5th gen Avalon has sold only 17.5k units so far this year, and is heading for a very disappointing 30k/year USA in its first full year; roughly 50% fall in sales!

No more boring cars is fine Mr Toyoda, but are consumers buying it?
Why produce these sporty cars that consumers don't purchase, and then axe the line up?

Styling is always very subjective, however I liked the old Avalon styling much better, and I can understand why Avalon sales have dwindled not just a little, but significantly.
.

 

the es outsells avalon 2:1
the camry and corolla outsell avalon 10:1

 

That cheaper Corolla and Camry outsell Avalon by 10:1 is only to be expected.
That more expensive 7ES outsells new Avalon by 2:1 tells us just how bad the new Avalon's all round package really is.

 

How much does the loaded Camry go for? At the price, maybe just get into an Avalon. Same thing with a loaded Avalon vs a ES. Toyota and Lexus cover quite a price range with their V6 3.5