Will there be enough supply for the NXs?

 

 

Lexus expects 4k NXs and 1k RC's to be sold in December, so supply should be there. Those seem like optimal numbers in general.

 

Shouldn't the Corolla be it's own now? Matrix is on the old one iirc

 

I would like to know how many 4 series are selling. Probably an insane number of coupes.
people really love that design.

S class seems to be benefiting from all their product placements on TV. Every damn show has one.

 

i am seriously worried about the numbers... most of the mb and bmw's are leased i expect and i think a lot of people are leasing image conscious vehicles that they couldn't afford to buy, and if they lose their jobs, they're toast. car financing is the easiest financing to get, and tons of people are buying cars on easy money. that's good for now, but if interest rates rise, i think it will seriously whack car sales because the 'perceived price', i.e., car sales/lease payments, will go up a lot (for new vehicles, not ones already sold/leased).

we also have cheaper gas right now, due to opec opening the flood gates and the u.s. temporarily becoming the world's largest oil producer. with the russian ruble collapsing, putin's likely to be a big trouble soon, and that instability may have real impact on the global security and economy picture.

japan has just slumped into recession after a disastrous giant rise in sales tax to try to repay their vast debt, and europe has slowed to a crawl.

not trying to be a doom and gloom guy, but there's tremendous risk on the global economy picture. and i didn't even mention terrorism...

but until something bad happens, the car party will continue...

 

I don't think Lexus will ever be dominant in that segment.
Lexus is dominant in the SUV segment and the entry luxury segments(ES+IS. Yes they both should be counted as 'one segment' since they are both entry level luxury just like the 3 Series) Lexus is now making big moves in the coupe segment(RC) and looking good. This brand USED to be dominant in the flagship segment as well. The LS actually outsells the 7 Series most years from 2000-2011. I expect Lexus to be dominant again with the new LS. Still 300,000+ units sold for a third place finish is very very good. Lexus should regain the sales crown next year with the RC and NX. But with all these German leases will be tough.

 

there is always some doom and gloom on the horizon, it is not that bad at all... US is definitely on the rise and Japan has lack of spending due to new tax not recession - they are actually in good position industry wise. As soon as they lower the tax down, spending will continue.

I guess Japanese are showing us how should we "vote with out wallets", right? Perfectly executed, they already delayed another tax rise :-)

 

GS sales will still be up YTD and there is a refresh right around the corner.

 

Yes you are correct so far YTD (Jan-Nov) 2014 Lexus has sold 19,453 GS models. I'm projecting Lexus will sell over 21,000 units this year. In 2013 Lexus sold 19,742 GS models. This is U.S. sales and not worldwide.

I look forward to the GS F coming very soon...

Worldwide models of the GS:

GS 250
GS 350
GS 300h
GS 450h

GS F (coming soon)

 

not much different from say back in 2008. it is what it is and people are good at forgetting history

 

True, over 300K new jobs opened up last month. But, a couple of things.....First, I suspect that a fair amount of that is temporary holiday-season work (like with the Post Office, Fed-EX, UPS, etc....) that may be gone by January. Second, many, if not most, of those jobs were not of the kind that make for real economic security, but are lower-paying service-level jobs without many benefits. Third, the rush to buy new cars because some people are lulled by "good" employment figures, may just get a lot of people into car-loan and mortgage difficulties over their heads like they did back in 2008, which set off the last economic crisis. I hope, of course, that it doesn't turn out that way, but history sometimes has a way of repeating itself.

 

This is lower than the sales #s of the 3rd Generation (2006-2012 MY) but at least its going up YOY.

Around NYC - I see a ton of GSs and hardly any Audi A6s, so very surprising seeing the sales figures.

 

True. The 2GS was the most popular.

Total sales of each GS generation:

1GS (1993 - 1997) = 41,827
2GS (1998 - 2004) = 150,871
3GS (2005 - 2011) = 118,222
4GS (2012 - Present) = 61,355

 

I think that the 4GS got somewhat screwed. It was considered the first iteration of Lexus' spindle grille, but in reality, it wasn't close to the same bold face we have seen on the IS, RC, NX, etc. I understand that Lexus wanted to go "full spindle" slowly (4GS, LS refresh, then to 3IS), but looking at how well the full spindle cars are selling, I think the GS would have been stronger if they gave it the full spindle face from the get-go.

I am looking forward to seeing what Lexus does with the 2016 model. If they can give the GS a substantial refresh with the separated DRLs, full spindle, a more dramatic rear end, updated V6, new 200t option, GS F... that's a lot of life to breathe into a car mid-life cycle. I have a feeling we might see them do what they did with the GX, and come up with a slightly de-contented version with NuLuxe interior to make it more affordable as well.

I wish a lot of that had been available for the 2013 model, but I just hope they play their cards right for the 2016 model.