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Why developing a new car costs $1-$6 BILLION

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Old 11-19-11, 07:51 PM
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Default Why developing a new car costs $1-$6 BILLION

Here's an interesting article I came across while pondering the question.

It's true when you think about it. A car is the most complex thing in the world to develop as the article states. "More complicated than an air plane or space shuttle".

http://translogic.aolautos.com/2010/...op-new-models/

by Terry Shea
The late former Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen, when discussing federal spending, once said, "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money." I don't know about you, but it only takes a couple of zeroes to the left of the decimal to start being real money to me.
But it's not just governments throwing around all of those zeroes. Car companies, too, spend enormous amounts developing new models. The price tag to develop a new vehicle starts around $1 billion. According to John Wolkonowicz, Senior Auto Analyst for North America at IHS Global, "It can be as much as $6 billion if it's an all-new car on all-new platform with an all-new engine and an all-new transmission and nothing carrying over from the old model."

Big Bucks


So what makes a new car model such a substantial investment?

According to Bruce Belzowski, Assistant Research Scientist at the University of Michigan's Transportation Research Institute, it's the complexity of the project. "The vehicle, when you think about it, is an extremely complicated piece of machinery," he says. "You're looking at hundreds of thousands of parts that have to work every time you turn the key and every time you press the accelerator and every time you press the brake. And they have to do it for about 15 years. And they also have to pass all the government inspections."

Ford's Global Product Communications Manager Said Deep adds, "Cars are far more complicated to engineer than airplanes and Space Shuttles. [Airplanes] don't have to be subjected to the same conditions customers subject cars to. I don't think there is anything more complex than the amount of engineering that goes into an automobile."

That complexity comes courtesy of an enterprise that takes several years to complete and starts with a design process that involves more second-guessing than a season of The Bachelorette. When an automaker designs a new car, it not only tries to identify consumer tastes a few years down the road, but also needs to create a car that is feasible to produce on an assembly line and still make a profit. Once the design gets "locked down," meaning the physical parameters of the vehicle are set, the engineers go to work.

It's The People


A new car development team usually includes a few hundred of these engineers, split into such groups as chassis and body, suspension, drivetrain, control systems and other major subsystems. Other teams may be dedicated to exorcising "NVH" (noise, vibration and harshness), meeting government regulations, or finding the most ergonomically correct setup for the widest variety of differently sized humans that could get behind the wheel. With the rise of in-car infotainment systems, you can be sure there is no shortage of engineers working on the latest gadgets to distract you while your drive.

And what do all of these engineers do? They devise solutions and then they test, test, and test some more until they get it right. They test to meet performance requirements. They test for durability. They test for fuel mileage. They test for aerodynamics. They test for safety compliance. Testing costs money.

Today many tests can be done on the computer before prototypes are built, but those computers and the software cost more money and eventually, real-world tests must be done and unique prototypes must be built. Some of that real-world testing can take place at automakers' private proving grounds or closed test tracks, but the need to test in extreme weather conditions lures them to the roasting desert of Death Valley and the frigid winter of Lapland. The logistics of getting humans, prototypes and test equipment to these regions does not come cheap, either.

Of course, this engineering and testing is all for naught if they don't come up with a car that appeals to Joe Consumer in a way that makes him want the car more than a competitor's and at a price he is willing to pay.

That means you will find designers (interior and exterior), model makers, marketing people, manufacturing specialists, assembly line workers, purchasing analysts, and any number of outside consultants -- not to mention plenty of accountants -- working on new product development at any given time. Throw in the obligatory executive decision makers, highly compensated individuals under extreme pressure to get it right, and you begin to get an idea of the number of people involved in creating a new car. We haven't even considered the support staff assisting with human resources, IT and other essential services of a modern corporation.

Substantial Fixed Costs


IHS Analyst Wolkonowicz, a three-decade veteran of the automotive industry, says, "Thousands and thousands of people input their work to the design and [preparation of a] new vehicle. You have to re-do the assembly plants. You have to create tooling to stamp parts out. It's an endless array of things that have to be done. It's an incredibly complex process that occupies thousands and thousands of people for several years."

Let's say the average total compensation for each engineer, designer, accountant, marketing person and executive runs in the neighborhood of $100,000 per year (counting benefits such as medical insurance, pensions, education, vacation and other perks). A team might be 1,000 people. That makes $100,000,000 per year for our estimate. With four years to develop a car, that's at least $400,000,000. Those employees need computers, office space, engineering labs and countless other resources required to design and engineer such a complex machine. The Blackberry bill alone is probably in the neighborhood of a million bucks a year for such a group.

Meanwhile, another group of engineers and autoworkers are preparing factories for the commencement of production. Re-tooling a factory can easily eclipse the human cost of developing a new car. And if they require a whole new factory, another billion dollars is not out of the question.

But automakers just don't throw money into the pit. They use common platforms to derive more than one vehicle from substantially the same development investment. They also use engine families across broad swathes of models. Some carmakers may use the same engine in a coupe, sedan, SUV, CUV, truck, minivan and even among a slate of luxury vehicles. Now global platforms like the new Ford Fiesta and coming Chevrolet Cruze are also leveraging investments across a much wider spectrum of the world market. For such companies, it is impossible to overstate the need to get it right. And getting it right often requires a substantial investment.

A few decades ago, there wasn't so much a development process as there was an annual styling exercise. But with competition so fierce for consumer dollars, automakers now need to produce safe, reliable and clean cars and we see that now in the showroom. Michigan's Belzowski says, "The competitiveness in the industry in the end is a wonderful thing for the consumer, because we've just have gotten fantastic cars out of this process the last 20 years."

Indeed, some things we take for granted today, like the fact that rust has pretty much been banished, would have seemed unimaginable in the past. Owners expect to get 200,000 miles from their cars today, which are far safer and cleaner than they were just a generation ago, all thanks to the dedicated teams in new car development.

And what do those engineers, designers and bean counters do once they finish their work and watch the first cars roll of the assembly line? They probably get a chance to toast their new ride, but as soon as the bottle of champagne runs dry, they get right back to work creating the next car because their competitors haven't exactly been sitting still. As Ford's Deep points out, "In this industry, there is no end game. You have to be on to making the next great thing. There is no finish line."
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Old 11-19-11, 07:57 PM
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Its not that difficult considering how many "new" cars are just modified older chassis or shared chassis these days, with shared components and the like.
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Old 11-19-11, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Kostamojen
Its not that difficult considering how many "new" cars are just modified older chassis or shared chassis these days, with shared components and the like.
Today's cars cost more to develop than ever before even while constantly streamlining manufacturing techniques. Of course automakers are going to share what they can across models - otherwise, cars would cost far more. In most cases, engines don't run for more than two model generations. Sometimes longer if they are modified.

That $1 billion figure, as the article states, is the cost of a model that is redesigned but carries over the engine, platform, transmission, and some some other components. Such as the 2012 Yaris.

A majority of redesigned models are "all-new" and are in the mid-range of that $1-$6 billion estimate.

The process to bring these cars from a sketch to a showroom is almost unimaginable.

"Not that difficult" is the understatement of the century.
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Old 11-19-11, 08:35 PM
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"It can be as much as $6 billion if it's an all-new car on all-new platform with an all-new engine and an all-new transmission and nothing carrying over from the old model."

If he's talking about the LFA, and the 500 LFAs each sells for about $400k, bringing in Lexus a total of $200M in sales, then Lexus would lose about $6B - $200M = $5.8B (before counting in the labor and material costs to build the cars) just on the LFA.
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Old 11-19-11, 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Kostamojen
Its not that difficult considering how many "new" cars are just modified older chassis or shared chassis these days, with shared components and the like.

Ok lets see you do it.




.
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Old 11-19-11, 08:44 PM
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Originally Posted by ydooby
"It can be as much as $6 billion if it's an all-new car on all-new platform with an all-new engine and an all-new transmission and nothing carrying over from the old model."

If he's talking about the LFA, and the 500 LFAs each sells for about $400k, bringing in Lexus a total of $200M in sales, then Lexus would lose about $6B - $200M = $5.8B (before counting in the labor and material costs to build the cars) just on the LFA.
The LFA no doubt was a huge undertaking. Not sure what it cost Toyota but they are indeed losing a ton on the project. While the LFA incorporates many first time advances in the auto industry, there are actually many costs that "normal" cars have throughout development that the LFA didn't have.

Toyota had no intention of ever making money with the LFA. The point was an exercise into their potential, a halo effect, and to develop potential tech that may be passed onto more common future cars.
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Old 11-19-11, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by -J-P-L-
Today's cars cost more to develop than ever before even while constantly streamlining manufacturing techniques. Of course automakers are going to share what they can across models - otherwise, cars would cost far more. In most cases, engines don't run for more than two model generations. Sometimes longer if they are modified.

That $1 billion figure, as the article states, is the cost of a model that is redesigned but carries over the engine, platform, transmission, and some some other components. Such as the 2012 Yaris.

A majority of redesigned models are "all-new" and are in the mid-range of that $1-$6 billion estimate.

The process to bring these cars from a sketch to a showroom is almost unimaginable.

"Not that difficult" is the understatement of the century.
tell that to Honda and the J-Series V6 which was introduced in 1996
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Old 11-19-11, 08:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Hoovey2411
tell that to Honda and the J-Series V6 which was introduced in 1996
I did say "most"....
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Old 11-20-11, 02:20 AM
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Originally Posted by -J-P-L-
"Not that difficult" is the understatement of the century.
I think their numbers are inflated, especially the labor.

I've never heard of the design OR engineering teams for a vehicle having thousands of people working on it and certainly not year round.

A lot of the work they mention in the article is actually done by third parties or via contract work. And a lot of the bits on a car are done by suppliers not the main company itself.

And if it really does cost multi billions of dollars to design a car, I don't see how any of the smaller companies that don't sell millions of cars a year can even exist let alone make a profit...
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Old 11-20-11, 03:02 PM
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That number is highly inflated. Toyota build their LFA in the same factory that builds other lexus models they didn't have to invest a brand new factory just for 1 car. It is engineered by the same guys that did other Toyota and Lexus models they didn't have to hire a complete crew just for 1 car and they are designed by the same copy cats...I mean designers!!...who also style other Toyo and Lexus models. So whatever the cost is, most of that cost is already offset by what Toyota already have.

Terry Shea - the guy that wrote the story has no idea how a car manufacture business or how any business works.


Originally Posted by ydooby
"It can be as much as $6 billion if it's an all-new car on all-new platform with an all-new engine and an all-new transmission and nothing carrying over from the old model."

If he's talking about the LFA, and the 500 LFAs each sells for about $400k, bringing in Lexus a total of $200M in sales, then Lexus would lose about $6B - $200M = $5.8B (before counting in the labor and material costs to build the cars) just on the LFA.
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Old 11-20-11, 03:49 PM
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I'd believe it. electrical and mechanical engineering costs all add up. Every single part is drawn (CAD) or sourced out, BOM's, molds, and the firmware programming for all the microcontrollers these new cars have all add up. on top of that there's the manufacturing aspect involved as well upkeep, thorough testing and validation and technical documents (design documents, SW/FW specs, testing docs & reports, total product specs etc, etc, etc)

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Old 11-20-11, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Kostamojen
I think their numbers are inflated, especially the labor.

I've never heard of the design OR engineering teams for a vehicle having thousands of people working on it and certainly not year round.

A lot of the work they mention in the article is actually done by third parties or via contract work. And a lot of the bits on a car are done by suppliers not the main company itself.

And if it really does cost multi billions of dollars to design a car, I don't see how any of the smaller companies that don't sell millions of cars a year can even exist let alone make a profit...
Originally Posted by Stormwind
That number is highly inflated. Toyota build their LFA in the same factory that builds other lexus models they didn't have to invest a brand new factory just for 1 car. It is engineered by the same guys that did other Toyota and Lexus models they didn't have to hire a complete crew just for 1 car and they are designed by the same copy cats...I mean designers!!...who also style other Toyo and Lexus models. So whatever the cost is, most of that cost is already offset by what Toyota already have.

Terry Shea - the guy that wrote the story has no idea how a car manufacture business or how any business works.
You guys aren't thinking about the entire operation that goes into making a car. So third party suppliers don't cost money and isn't counted? How about all the pensions and health benefits of retirees? Or the guys that clean the toilets that the engineers use? And even though a new multi-billion dollar factory can be used for numerous vehicles and for many years, those costs must still be factored into each model. There's countless thousands of hidden costs that are seemingly unrelated to actually developing a car that comes out of the bottom line.
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Old 11-20-11, 08:35 PM
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Ford's Global Product Communications Manager Said Deep adds, "Cars are far more complicated to engineer than airplanes and Space Shuttles. [Airplanes] don't have to be subjected to the same conditions customers subject cars to. I don't think there is anything more complex than the amount of engineering that goes into an automobile."
I have to strongly disagree with this. The average car, complex as it is, doesn't have to depart from a sea-level desert airport, at normal atmospheric-pressure, where the outside temperature may be 120 degrees, and climb, in a matter of minutes, to 40,000 feet where the outside temperature may be 65 degrees below zero and the air-pressure is extremely low. Just think of the stresses and strains that puts on the window materials, expansion/contraction of airframe material, etc.... And the average car doesn't have to withstand the tremendous stresses put on airframes when flying into storms and turbulence. Airplanes also, on the average, have to last much longer than cars, and undergo these kind of stresses over and over again for decades.

Last edited by mmarshall; 11-20-11 at 08:39 PM.
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Old 11-21-11, 03:29 PM
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I disagree with your disagreement there mike. Whilst the shuttle did have to be design to withstand enormous presssure & temperature differences it's operational paramenters are tightly defined and rarely called to perform outside of this expectation. Automotive manufacturers have to try to design a piece of machinery that is expected to be usuable by anyone, anywhere and under almost any conditions. See what happens if you used a shuttle with unsympathetic, unknowledgable and untrained operateors & technicians.
Also don't forget that even though aircraft have operation life spans of 20+ years (B-52 aiming for 100!!) they are essentially complete rebuilt every 5-6 years (HMV overhaul), I also believe that the entire surface had to be replaced, all electrical systems tested, structure tested and most mechanical systems replaced after every shuttle flight (record turnaround was 8 weeks of 24hr days).

Last edited by Marzabella; 11-21-11 at 03:42 PM. Reason: additions
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Old 11-21-11, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Stormwind
That number is highly inflated. Toyota build their LFA in the same factory that builds other lexus models they didn't have to invest a brand new factory just for 1 car. It is engineered by the same guys that did other Toyota and Lexus models they didn't have to hire a complete crew just for 1 car and they are designed by the same copy cats...I mean designers!!...who also style other Toyo and Lexus models. So whatever the cost is, most of that cost is already offset by what Toyota already have.

Terry Shea - the guy that wrote the story has no idea how a car manufacture business or how any business works.

same factory? Sure, but if they weren't making the LFA or xxx car they could reduce the factory size and/or use that space for other things.

Not a new crew? Nope, but you still have to pay them.

All of those resources were used to manufacture said vehicle.
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