RON430

OK, to start this will be long, sorry about that. Secondly, I apologize for possibly darkening the introduction of the new LS with the hybrid hijinx. But this point is important to me. I have posted before that I felt when I got my GS4 it might be the last V8 I was ever going to get but as hp has continued to creep up and being definitely performance oriented, I have my doubts. But gas prices are on their inevitable upward spiral. Obviously Toyota has hitched its wagon to the hybrid star and with little alternative, many other marques are jumping on board. Now, here is a NYTimes article that I posted in the other thread, I know it is long but I think everyone should know what we are talking about:


BEHIND THE WHEEL/2006 Lexus RX400h; The Hybrid Emperor's New Clothes
By JEFF SABATINI (NYT) 1413 words
Published: July 31, 2005

CHICAGO - ONE question lingers after driving the 2006 Lexus RX400h: How did it come to this, that Toyota is now selling a hybrid gas-electric vehicle with no tangible fuel economy benefits?
In my test-driving, the Lexus hybrid, which is based on the gasoline-only RX 330, did not achieve better mileage than the 2005 RX330 that I drove for comparison.
My hybrid tester's window sticker did boast a federal mileage rating of 31 miles per gallon in the city and 27 on the highway, compared with just 18 and 24 for the RX without the hybrid drivetrain. But the government's testing procedure has a habit -- one that seems to be exaggerated with hybrids -- of rendering fuel economy numbers as relevant to the real world as national energy policies have been to actually reducing dependence on foreign oil.
Speaking of which, isn't that what hybrids are all about: conservation, improved fuel economy, weaning the nation off its oil habit? Perhaps not any longer.
The hybrid version of the Lexus sport utility wagon follows in the tracks of the 2005 Honda Accord Hybrid by offering more horsepower than the conventional version of the same vehicle, a markedly different approach than that of economy-focused hybrids like Toyota's own Prius or Honda's Civic Hybrid. In this case we're talking 268 horsepower for the RX400h, versus 230 for the gasoline-only RX330.
True, Toyota is not marketing the RX400h as being environmentally friendly, focusing instead on its performance and typical Lexus luxuriousness. While this may provide the company some absolution, the RX400h's failure to deliver, in my experience, even a nominal improvement in gas mileage still seems like a sin of omission. It has been fundamental to the understanding and acceptance of hybrids that they offer better fuel economy than vehicles powered by conventional gasoline engines. Toyota itself helped to establish that impression with its Prius.
A hybrid's improved economy is primarily accomplished in city driving, by using an electric motor to assume some of the motive burden from the gasoline engine, as well as shutting off the engine when the vehicle comes to rest, so it is not idling, burning fuel, at red lights.
Certainly, it is the Prius's above-average fuel economy that Toyota has to thank for its image as a green car company. Environmental advocates do not proclaim the righteousness of all things Toyota based on the 958,888 light trucks and S.U.V.'s that it sold in the United States last year, fully 47 percent of its total sales. By comparison, only 53,991 Priuses were sold in 2004, though the company has stated that it plans to double that number this year.
It is understandable that Toyota would like to transfer the Prius's hybrid chic and green patina to other products. To this end, a hybrid version of the Toyota Highlander S.U.V. was also introduced this year, and the automaker has announced plans to add both a hybrid version of its Camry, the nation's best-selling sedan, and a hybrid Lexus GS sport sedan next year. Whether these vehicles will be gas misers like the Prius or thirstier performance-oriented hybrids like the RX400h remains to be seen.
My first seat time in the Lexus hybrid came over a weekend in which I drove the 200 miles from Chicago to Grand Rapids, Mich. I spent a lot of time on the freeway, but I also traveled some back roads and slogged through a couple of stop-and-go city stints. By the time I returned to Chicago, I had put 531 miles on the odometer and calculated my fuel economy at 20.9 m.p.g.
I returned this vehicle to Toyota, but later tested another RX400h for a week. I drove this one 556 miles and did a bit better, averaging 23.0 m.p.g.
In an effort to make a direct comparison with the conventional gasoline-only Lexus, I contacted Toyota and asked for an RX330 test car. When the company said that none was available, I called on an acquaintance who had recently bought an RX330 with all-wheel drive, and made arrangements to drive that vehicle over essentially the same Chicago-Grand Rapids route.
While this was not a controlled experiment, the results from my stint in the RX330 were nonetheless illuminating: 462 miles traveled, at an average of 21.6 m.p.g.
I'll be charitable and call the gas mileage comparison between the hybrids and the standard RX a draw, though there is a clearly a loser -- anyone who buys an RX400h under the assumption that it will consume appreciably less fuel in a range of driving situations.
That it doesn't forces one to consider the RX400h on its other merits, of which there are precious few. The hybrid is visually indistinguishable from its conventional counterpart, save for some cosmetics and slightly different gauges, though it does come loaded with luxury equipment that is optional on the RX330. It has somewhat lower tailpipe emissions, carrying a ''super ultra low'' emissions rating on models sold in states that follow California's clean-air rules, compared with ''ultra low'' for the RX330.
The best thing I can say in its defense is that at least behind the wheel of this hybrid, you won't find yourself being cut off by drivers of full-size S.U.V.'s and luxury sedans muttering ''tree hugger'' under their breath, as you might in a Prius.
The hybrid RX does accelerate briskly, thanks to the addition of two electric drive motors to a detuned version of the 3.3-liter V-6 found in the RX330. (A third electric motor acts as a starter-generator.)
The ultimate value of this extra thrust is debatable, however, as by Toyota's own admission the hybrid drivetrain cuts only half a second off the RX330's 0-to-60 acceleration time of 7.8 seconds. The culprit here is the extra 300 pounds of mass the hybrid has to haul around, which pushes its unloaded weight to 4,365 pounds.
Whether those driving the RX400h will use the extra oomph is another question, as under full power the vehicle's continuously variable transmission tends to rev the engine, producing quite a bit of noise. This is exactly the sort of unpleasantness that causes the average motorist to avoid the upper reaches of the tachometer.
Noise of any sort is anathema to a Lexus, so on the freeway the incessant whirring of the RX400h's front electric motor was as surprising as it was irritating. Cycling on and off, the sound was not loud, but it was audible above the drone of talk radio.
Though I might be willing to put up with all sorts of annoyances in the name of better fuel economy or enhanced performance, I found not a lot of either in the RX400h. It doesn't even travel farther between fill-ups, since the hybrid's gas tank is two gallons smaller than the RX330's. And with very little to make it preferable to a comparably equipped RX330, the price is more outlandish than the mileage: At $49,185, the RX400h's sticker is $4,000 more than a fully loaded RX330's and about $11,000 more than one without options.
Even so, Toyota presold 11,000 of the hybrid sport wagons before they arrived at dealerships, a not-unsurprising development given the popularity of the Prius. At least the people paying so much for this hybrid should be able to afford all the gas they won't be saving. They will also be eligible, under current law, for a $2,000 federal tax deduction for hybrid-vehicle buyers, and possibly for state and local tax breaks as well.
I hope Toyota continues to pursue the worthy cause of developing vehicles that push the limits of automotive technology in the quest for better fuel economy, as it has with the Prius.
That the RX400h does nothing to further this goal is regrettable. Perhaps even more unfortunate is that Toyota's motivation in pushing hybrid technology may turn out to be a different shade of green than we've been led to believe, one much closer to the color of money.

and more recently:

The Hybrid Hoax
DETROIT, Jan. 20, 2006

(Weekly Standard) This column was written by Richard Burr.

When Treasury Secretary John Snow announced guidelines for a new tax cut for the rich here last week, liberals did not denounce him. That's because the proposed tax breaks were for gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles, the favorite ride of environmentalists this side of bicycles. But the dirty secret about hybrids is that, even as the government continues to fuel their growth with tax subsidies, they don't deliver the gas savings they promise.

Most cars and trucks don't achieve the gas mileage they advertise, according to Consumer Reports. But hybrids do a far worse job than conventional vehicles in meeting their Environmental Protection Agency fuel economy ratings, especially in city driving.

Hybrids, which typically claim to get 32 to 60 miles per gallon, ended up delivering an average of 19 miles per gallon less than their EPA ratings under real-world driving conditions (which reflect more stop-and-go traffic and Americans' penchant for heavy accelerating) according to a Consumer Reports investigation in October 2005.

For example, a 2004 Toyota Prius got 35 miles per gallon in city driving, off 42 percent from its EPA rating of 60 mpg. The 2003 Honda Civic averaged 26 mpg, off 46 percent from its advertised 48 mpg. And the Ford Escape small sport utility vehicle managed 22 mpg, falling 33 percent short of its 33 mpg rating.

"City traffic is supposed to be the hybrids' strong suit, but their shortfall amounted to a 40 percent deficit on average," Consumer Reports said.

The hybrid failed another real world test in 2004 when a USA Today reporter compared a Toyota Prius hybrid with a Volkswagen Jetta diesel, driving both between his home in Ann Arbor, Michigan and the Washington, D.C. area. Both should have made the 500-mile trip on one tank of gas.

"Jetta lived up to its one-tank billing," reporter David Kiley wrote. "Prius did not."

Kiley had to stop to refill the Prius, which ended up averaging 38 miles per gallon, compared with 44 miles per gallon for the Jetta (which met its fuel economy rating). And this occurred during spring weather without the extra drain on a hybrid battery caused by winter weather--which would have favored the diesel Jetta even more.

Customers complain about the failure to meet fuel savings expectations. There are web sites such as hybridbuzz.com and chat rooms of hybrid fanatics who bemoan their lackluster fuel economy. About 58 percent of hybrid drivers say they aren't happy with their fuel economy (compared with 27 percent of conventional vehicle drivers), according to CNW Marketing Research in Bandon, Oregon.

It's gotten to the point where Ford is giving hybrid owners special lessons on how to improve fuel economy, according to USA Today. They teach drivers how to brake sooner, which helps recharge the battery. But they also drill owners with the same tips that help conventional vehicle owners improve gas mileage: Accelerate slowly. Inflate your tires. Plan your errands better. And this eye-opener: Don't set the air conditioner on maximum. "That prevents the electric motor from engaging," USA Today says.

Hybrids are also failing to pay for themselves in gas savings. A study by the car-buying website Edmunds.com calculates gasoline would have to cost $5.60 a gallon over five years for a Ford Escape hybrid to break even with the costs of driving a non-hybrid vehicle. The break-even number was $9.60 a gallon for a Honda Civic hybrid.

Hybrid automakers and their supporters have their defenses. They quibble with how some studies are done. They point out that even with their fuel economy shortcomings, hybrids achieve the best gas mileage in three of five vehicle categories rated by Consumer Reports. Hybrids are still far lower-polluting than diesels. Their sales are growing fast, even though they make up a small 1 percent of America's annual sales of 17 million vehicles.

Then there's the ultimate defense: They are just like conventional cars because drivers buy them for many reasons other than fuel savings and cost. There's the "prestige of owning such a vehicle," says Dave Hermance, an executive engineer for environmental engineering at Toyota, the leading seller of hybrids. After all, many vehicle purchases are emotional decisions, he says.

So, hybrids have become the environmental equivalent of driving an Escalade or Mustang. Who cares if they deliver on their promises as long as they make a social statement?

Taxpayers should. The federal government subsidizes hybrid fashion statements with tax breaks that benefit the rich. The average household income of a Civic hybrid owner ranges between $65,000 to $85,000 a year; it's more than $100,000 for the owner of an Accord. The median income of a Toyota Prius owner is $92,000; for a Highlander SUV owner $121,000; and for a luxury Lexus SUV owner it's over $200,000.

This year the government will offer tax credits for hybrid purchases ranging up to $3,400, with owners getting a dollar-for-dollar benefit on their tax forms. This beats last year's $2,000 tax deduction, which amounted up to a $700 benefit, depending on the driver's tax bracket.

Just a few years ago, liberals criticized the Bush administration for allowing professionals to get tax breaks on large SUVs if they were purchased for business purposes. But evidently it's okay to subsidize under-performing hybrids.

Perhaps with more technological advances, hybrids will some day deliver on their fuel economy promise and truly be worth the extra cost. But the tax credits have become just one more welfare program for the wealthy. Let the fast-growing hybrids show that they can pay for themselves.

After all, when Snoop Dogg makes a fashion statement by buying a Chrysler 300 C with a Hemi engine, taxpayers aren't footing part of the bill.

Now I found that spwolf posted in the RX section that the NY Times report is not factual and goodness it may not be, I am no fan of the NY Times. But the guy says he got 23.0 mpg with a second 400h and that is exactly what Consumer Reports got. So if its an anti hybrid conspiracy, I guess everyone is in on it except for the hybrid owners. If I am going to lay out considerable bucks for a Lexus, I am not talking at all in this thread about a purpose built mileage buggy like the Prius and would hope the mods would keep this thread from getting into them, I am going to want some combination of Lexus luxury and performance - please note that includes ride/handling as well as acceleration and yes, I do want as good a mileage as I can get. And I am not at all interested in a Prius but I hope the new LS is the step ahead it appears to be because I will definitely get one after they first year or so of production (OK, I don't even trust Lexus enough to want a first year car). But let's talk about how much would you pay for a hybrid as the technology stands today. There are certainly reports that say that hybrids deliver maybe the best high mileage purpose vehicles around. There are also plenty of articles saying that they do not come close to their advertised mileage (this is a non event, EPA numbers are only guidelines and we all know, your mileage may vary) and more importantly that some of the models that offer hybrid as an option, like the 400h, don't exactly set the world on fire with mileage increase compared to an exact equivalent non hybrid model. Toyota is obviously a bit schizophrenic on this as they are walking a fine line with the Lexus models, at least it seems to me, between better mileage and better performance. So the poll is what would you pay? And to keep hard numbers out of it, I kept it to percent increase over an equivalent gas version. And while there may or may not be a performance gain in dyno hp, how much of that will translate to acceleration will have to be seen as the hybrids gain weight over the conventional versions which also doesn't help handling. Sorry for the length but I am interested in this. I also acknowledge that this is pretty speculative as Lexus only has a SUV hybrid and we don't know what the sedans will be like and I would limit the poll to sedans only, not SUVs, for various reasons.

spwolf

yes, but what would he get on RX330? Thats the whole point you dont understand. You can not quote driven mpg and then compare it with official mpg of other car. Do you get EPA mileage for your car in mixed driving?

Edmunds is getting 27-28mpg on their long term RX400h, so what? It doesnt mean you will.

Most magazines and users that have had RX330 before, found RX400h to improve their mpg, over the same roads anywhere from 4 mpg to 8mpg.

Is that enough to warrant 4k extra price? No, I dont think so. But the whole package is - you get performance of V8 with better mpg than V6.

Did you ever post angry remark on how your V8 spends more *gasp* gas than V6? I bet you did not.

However, RX400h is:
- cheaper than V8 competitors
- faster than V8 competitors (50-70, 60-80mph passing speed, 1 to 2 sec faster)
- spends a lot less fuel than V8
- slightly heavier than V8 but with much better weight distribution than front mounted front wheel cars.

What is there not to like?

PhilipMSPT

iTrader: (5)

The extra 10% premium is o.k. if the hybrid comes along with other "standards" that surpasses its gas-guzzling sib. Compare the base RX330 to a base RX400h...

Gojirra99

I would actually take the performance gain as much more important to the worthiness of a Lexus hybrid than gas mileage gain.

If the gain in hp / torque from a full gasoline V6 to a hybrid is comparable to going to an equivalent full gasoline V8, then I would be willing to pay around the price of the equivalent V8, which is normally around 14 -19 % above that of the V6. (This is from comparing the price of a GS300 to a GS430, the % variation depending on options chosen). I would take any gas mileage gains from going hybrid as an additional bonus.

My view above applies mainly for Lexus hybrid sedans & crossover like the GS450h, RX400h & future LS600h.

If looking at a Prius or a Camry hybrid which are economy cars, I may put more importance to gas mileage gains.

rominl

iTrader: (4)

to me 20% is about right. i agree with andrew, and mostly it depends on what car i am getting. say it's the future sienna or camry, i would like to see insane gas mileage and not really care about hp, as long as it's reasonable.

but if it's cars like the gs and ls, etc... i would want both hp (power) and gas mileage. meaning i won't expect to see 50mpg, but around 30mpg, and equivalent 500hp, to me that's very good already

CK6Speed

iTrader: (1)

Right now I wouldn't pay much of a premium at all. Even though I'm not happy that I pay close to $2.90 for premium, I can afford it and I'm not too worried about gas savings right now. Maybe when the prices reach about $5.00 a gallon I'll sing a different tune. Right now I'm content with driving something like a Civic to work, and having the gas guzzling Muscle car or sports car for my fun car. Maybe if I could only have one car I might have to rethink that though. Until then I could care less about fuel economy in my performance sports cars or cars that I buy specifically as my fun car.

For now, I'll let the early adoptors pay the premium and I'll jump on the bandwagon when there are more competition and choices out there and the prices come down to where the premium is not that signigicant.

mmarshall

I still think........as I have posted before.......that the whole buisness of designing hybrids is going to be far less important in the next few years. Starting later this year, we will get the European-style low-sulfur fuel here in the U.S. This....along with new urea-injection systems being developed....will make diesels run MUCH cleaner than current ones, and probably pass the tough CA and CARB emission standards. And diesels, by their nature, get about the same mileage as hybrids without the complexity of having two separate motors and the heavy battery pack. As far as power is concerned, diesels are very limited in high-RPM and have low redlines, but have a LOT of low-end torque. I honestly think that hybrids are going to become a harder sell in the next couple of years as the public gets more good diesel-powered cars here ( currently only VW markets them here ) and sees how the new ones, unlike 25 years ago, don't belch out black smoke, rattle like a can of marbles, refuse to start at below-freezing temperatures, take all day for the glow plugs to heat up, or accelerate like a slug.
Yes, there have been suggestions for diesel-hybrids as the ultimate answer, but diesels alone give gas-hybrid mileage without much complexity. A Diesel-hybrid, like a gas hybrid, would be quite complex.

spwolf

diesels will be slightly cheaper, but they wont be faster than hybrids. And they will still be expensive enough not to make economical sense in a small car - especially with urea (if EPA approves it, which probably wont happen actually).

For lexus actually, diesel in US makes no sense. Look at it this way, best German Autmotive press could get out of ML320 CDI over RX400h is 2.5 MPG on the highway. For 2.5 MPG you get RX400h which is 1 to 2 seconds faster in every relavant benchmark (0-60, 50-70, 60-80, 60-100) than ML320CDI, not to mention a lot quiter and smoother, especially when it is cold. And the price of ML320CDI is the same as RX400h.

So, for the same price - would you get car that (only) on highway gets 2.5 MPG more or would you get car that is faster (as in GS430>GS300 faster), that is smoother, and is cheaper to run (cost of servicing)?

:-).

Dont think this is me defending Toyota, as I might do sometimes, Toyota actually makes cleanest diesels in the world - MB system is not in production yet btw, and Toyota system uses self regenerating CAT that doesnt need to be replentished at all. But for luxury cars, diesels dont make that much sense as hybrids do. My (most likely) new Rav4 will be an diesel, because it is a better choice than 4cly, but if they had an hybrid version, I wouldnt hesitate for a second to get it. New diesels in Rav4 are pretty good, top end model is the same as in IS220d. They are all aluminium (first) and like to rev up to 5,000 rpm (before you could feel power dropping after 3,000-3,500 rpm).

And new turbo diesel engines are pretty complex actually, with state of the art everything, they are definetly not as dependable as petrol powered engines anymore (and have not been for a while now). People in Europe buy diesels for a. lower consumption, b. more power (sport models are now diesels) and c. much better resale value. Based on consumption alone, it doesnt make economical sense to purchase diesel either. For example, premium for Rav4 diesel 136hp vs 150hp 4cy is $2,000 USD. Preimium for 177hp diesel will be around $4,000 USD when compared to 4cly.

p.s. does anyone know what are actual numbers for EPA 2007 rules for NOx and PM? I can only find "90% reduction" but not the actual numbers.

So, based on my personal experience hybrid> diesel> petrol. IMHO.

Gojirra99

One additional point that needs to be clarified in this thread is that the wording of the choices of the poll only address vehicle price & gas savings, not performance. Therefore, when we have to compare the price of a gasoline Lexus sedan & it's hybrid equivalent, the only two models we have enough information to compare between now is the GS430 & the GS450h (NOT between the GS300 & GS450h, nor even the GS350 & GS450H ). The GS430 & the GS450h have the closest specs. in terms of power so it's the most appropiate & fair comparison.

GS430 - 300 hp / 320 lb.ft torque, loaded msrp ~$58K, if add PCS & laser cruise+, it's ~$62K msrp

GS450h -335hp / 320 lb.ft. torque, we are told it comes loaded only, they haven't officially announced it's msrp yet, but the Neiman Marcus special addition GS450h is $65k, so I think it's reasonable to assume that is approx. a $2K premium over the regular GS450h.
So a reasonable guess for the price of a loaded GS450h would be $62K+ to $63K.
Assuming it does not come with PCS & laser cruise+, that would be about a $4K+ to $5K premium over a similarly equipped GS430, equivalent to about 7 to 8 % premium approximately.
If the GS450h comes with PCS & lasercruise standard (which I doubt), then the premium would be neglible.
Note that the GS450h is rated 35hp more than the GS430 though torque is the same.

Now, one can raise the point that you can get a few thousand dollars off the GS430, but unlikely to get anything off for the GS450h, at least initially. But that has nothing to do with how Lexus price the car, it has to do with supply & demand driven by the market.

CK6Speed

iTrader: (1)

Agreed. But with the hybrid you are getting better performance and saving a little gas, but with a much more complex system. Its king of like asking one person to choose a 300 HP NA car vs a 335HP Supercharged car. The hybrid gets the job done, but with a potential for more problems. If the hybrid system fails, you don't get the added power and you may or may not be able to drive. Some in the RX400H had motor failures that locked the motors locking the wheels. Anyway, at this point, my only gripe is that the added performance and better gas mileage is not enough for me personally to justify not only the added cost but also the added potential for more things going bad. Like I mentioned before, one day when the system is proven and you get much better peformance and gas mileage at a lower cost I'll jump in with two feet. Until then I'll let others be the so called beta testers

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

I agree 100% - well said!!!!

They should be called 'hype-rids' right now.

RON430

Bit and all, thanks for your comments. I have kind of stayed away from my own thread to see how things played out. Let's throw a few more items out for consideration. I think we all had a bunch of smoke blown up our skirts but this dumba** rumor that there will not be a GS460 is a fascinating bit of fluff. It seems to me that the marketing between the GS460 and the GS450h is going to be difficult for Lexus. So what do you think? Should they just pull the V8? Will the 460 be less expensive and better performing than the 450h? That seems to be a given. Here's one that I will explore more fully but do we really think that the hybrid is only going to carry a $3k premium over the 430? In truth, with a bit more equipment, that seems like a pretty good deal on the hybrid but makes two competing models very close. Of course the hybrid is going to carry a premium for a long while so maybe it is true. The real world price difference between the hybrid and the dyno motor is going to be a lot more than 3k. However, those early adopters will most likely pay dearly for the privilege. They are not buying Ferrari Enzos.

Now for some of the other fodder, and maybe I need to start another thread because the poll on this one isn't really valid. If you get the new CR auto report (hey, let's stay away from dumping on the source, I have issues with CR too but they ran numbers and documented them and unless someone is going to take the time to do as thorough job as they did, I will not view their conclusions as illogical or false) they ran a lot of numbers on cost of ownership for hybrids. You can get the article, or just go buy a cup of coffee at Barnes and Noble and read it there, and see all that they did. Basically they took six vehicles and compared gas and hybrid versions. For the Prius they compared to the Corolla but for everything else it was straight hybrid vs gas, RX 330 vs 400h for example. Considering purchase price, sales tax, savings from tax credit, fuel savings (using their mileage numbers that they actually recorded, not EPA or mfr), insurance cost, maintenance, depreciation, and financing costs. The net result is that hybrids, for the models rated, were always more expensive to own. Over five years and 75,000 miles, the extra cost for the hybrid was $3700 (Civic), $5250 (Prius vs Corolla), $8350 (Escape), $10,250 (Accord), $13,100 (RX), and $13,300 (Highlander). They point out that when they ran the numbers out to 150,000 miles and ten years, the hybrids were still more expensive to own.

In the category of interesting points they raise for increase costs are these:

- Insurance. They did get some variation but not much. The Civic hybrid was 300 bucks (all numbers I will present are for five year costs) cheaper to insure but every other hybrid was more expensive.

- Maintenance. This was kind of a mixed bag but they do point one thing out. If you have a dyno motor car, you can get it serviced anywhere, not necessarily the dealer and the dealer is the most expensive place to get it serviced. The hybrid could have other systems serviced other places, likes brakes for example, but there aren't very many outside shops that can do anything for motor problems. Of course, modding would be difficult and probably extremely unwise.

- Depreciation. This was a surprise for me. Not only were the hybrids more expensive to buy, but they depreciate faster.

- Used Car Value. They don't really make a straight correlation but they present the argument that buying a hybrid with 75,000 miles on it could be very expensive. You will be out of warranty for hybrid related costs and could well be required to get service done at the more expensive dealer. I guess I never thought of that.

It doesn't seem like most of you have made a case for rushing out to get hybrids and I am AC/DC. I have to say that if the premium for a GS hybrid is 3K, that is pretty attractive, but it still doesn't come close to making the hybrid economically viable. It also looks like the original estimates for the hybrid LS are most likely laughably inaccurate, to say the least. Now bit has raised the issue of the trunk space on the GS being reduced further on the hybrid and the GS doesn't have trunk space to lose for those of us who own them. And I haven't exactly been tactful in my distaste for putting another couple of hundred pounds on a car but this discussion is very serious for Lexus as I see it. WIll the hybrid on the Lexus models be their version of M or AMG - extremely limited availability not mega performance - or will they be replacing dyno motors right now - i.e. no GS460? Or should the hybrid stick to the lower priced cars and strictly go for economy and not be pushed too hard in the luxury levels? I could make arguments both ways. I have been looking at a new XK but I would most likely be more interested in a 280 to 300hp V6 that would be lighter than the 300hp V8 they are going to be delivered with for better handling and a bit better economy. So gas mileage is important to me but not to the point where I am overall interested in spending more money overall to get it. Maybe I am just off base here but if I were Lexus, I would make the dyno motor engined cars available in good quantities and leave the hybrids in limited availability until gas gets a bit more expensive. But man, this is really a challenging adoption of technology and mega, or giga, dollars at stake. And with all my feelings about Lexus offering hybrid, would I ever, under any circumstance touch a Cadillac or bimmer hybrid even with a ten foot grounding rod? No.

I just get the sense that while hybrid may be an interesting and useful technology, Lexus may have a tiger by the tail and I hope it doesn't end up biting them in the butt.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

Awesome post Ron, thanks for taking the time to put it together.

First off I don't worry about Lexus being caught with products that aren't quite right because they seem to manage inventory better than anyone.

Second, your post focuses mostly on the economics of hybrids and while that's a factor for most people, I think most people buy hybrids regardless of the economics, as a 'conscience' decision, because hybrids put out less emissions overall than non-hybrids. As an aside, while they may be buying based on the 'feel good' that what comes out the exhaust isn't as bad as non-hybrids, they're not considering all the nasty stuff and chemicals that goes into creating a hybrid system, particularly the batteries.

So people buy hybrid today to be 'good eco citizens'. The unique Lexus angle says hybrids can appease both the left and right brains, the 'sensible, consciencious, save the earth' side, and the 'I want a fast vehice!' side. Electric drive-trains are almost silent also, which fits into the ultra quiet Lexus drivetrain philosophy also.

Onto Lexus' specific hybrid models...

- the RX400h doesn't exact a relevant space penalty for the hybrid (it's under the back row of seats), and the vehicle is peppier, so I think it fits the model I outlined above well.
- the GS450h does exact a space penalty on a vehicle that already has a fairly small trunk, well it wasn't that small really, but the opening is too small. So the buyer for a GS450h is going to be a truly conflicted individual. "Save the world, love the oomph, need to carry a family-load of groceries? Well yes, but mmmm.... don't care, it's fast and unique..." A sports sedan is already a conflicted vehicle, not truly practical or truly sporty (M5 comes closest) and Lexus has just muddied the water further.

Bottom lines:
- as you've eloquently stated, hybrids don't make economic sense.
- hybrids are wanted by those who feel guilty about car emissions (despite the fact that modern non-hybrid cars put out 100th or less the bad emissions that cars 30 years ago did).
- hybrid drivetrains make more sense on large vehicles and vehicles custom designed to have a hybrid drivetrain (Prius).

4TehNguyen

iTrader: (1)

lexus has 8 year/100k mile warranty on all hybrid components, motor, battery etc

RON430

CRs point is that hybrid technology makes sense only if you are the original owner and keep it for that 8 year/100K period for that warranty but that resale will be hurt because of the potential stiff bills and requirement to have service done at the dealer that hybrids will require.