sdiver68

Not a troll post despite the attention grabbing thread title I'm posting this thread to get various opinions that will influence future business models both inside and outside of the auto industry.

Tech leaders and auto industry execs are proclaiming the end of driving as we know it. They say self-driving cars, electric cars, and Uber/Lyft style ride sharing will transform personal transportation. Just a few of the results might include:

• Do not have to own a car to get the benefits of a car or truck for transportation with ride sharing
• Do not have to drive when going places, thus allowing your time to do other things
• Do not have to be able to drive, youth and elderly mobility
• Short flights become obsolete, just order up a car that drives you to destinations within ~250 miles in the same amount of time as the airport hassle
• Long flights become less attractive, imagine this self-driving car driving itself on/off a high speed city-to-city "train"
• Improved safety @ higher speeds
• Increased congestion

The list goes on but the purpose of this thread is to get your ideas on:

1) Any random thoughts on the subject
2) How life will be transformed in the next decade by these technologies and business models

Toys4RJill

I fail to see why this means a Lexus will be obsolete.

mmarshall

Though I agree the OP's intention is unclear, it seems that he or she was referring to traditional driver-operated cars in general, not just Lexus products. He or she may have simply used the term "Lexus" because this is primarily a Lexus forum.

Toys4RJill

Fair enough, but as new self driving cars come out, it does not mean that a car from 2016 will be obsolete. Not everyone will be drving in a driverless car. Not everyone cares for ride sharing etc etc

LeX2K

Click bait title you should feel very bad.

EZZ

I can't wait for driverless cars to be more prevalent. It'll be like an obstacle course blasting past them as they putter along at 65 mph

RXSF

No doubt as population grows and space becomes more of an issue we need to do something about the lack of efficiency on the road. People waste too much time sitting in traffic. The solution probably sits in the medium between self driving cars, and better public transportation. Recently videos on FB have shown this Chinese concept of a bus that rides above the motorways, so that they dont stop traffic.

UDel

The IC engine, automobile ownership, and vehicles needing drivers is here to stay, especially in the US. These "tech leaders" can dream all they want that the IC vehicle Americans own and drive are going to be replaced fairly soon but it is not going to happen. These new technologies and trends they are predicting will work out about as well as electric cars in the US or maybe even flying cars, more of a novelty that most people don't want anything to do with. People want cars with IC engines and the freedom and convenience they allow, owning a vehicle is not some big burden or problem for 98-99% of the population, maybe in New York City with the high costs of everything and parking and bigger convenience of public transportation makes owning a car not as necessary but the vast majority of Americans don't want the rest of the country to be like NY city.

Full self driving cars are a long ways off for most of the population and it is doubtful our roadways are ideal for many of them, the first few bad accidents from them will just about eliminate them from our roadways. Good luck getting a decent job with no automobile and relying everyday on ride sharing or other methods in most parts of the US, your employer is generally not going to buy the excuse that you could not get uber one day, your carpool never showed up, or you missed public transportation if you are late or miss work, not having a car/license is frowned open with most employers aside from big cities.

Lexus cars or any cars are not obsolete nor will they be in a very long time.

Toys4RJill

Very well said.

Self driving cars will become a segment within the car industry.

I also don't believe it will go as smoothly as some people thing. New tech can be frustrating to use. Navigation systems don't always find the fastest route, Apples Siri is mostly useless unless you need to do the basic. I could go on.

The Lexus LS self parking was a good idea that never worked.

Aron9000

The lawyers will make sure we never have completely anonymous self driving cars. Although I think the future will be more like the "auto-pilot" on airplanes, where if you program the flight computer it can perform takeoff, climb to cruise, and land the plane. Still there is a pilot there watching over everything in case something goes wrong, and most pilots don't like the autopilot landing the plane for them anyways.

The scary thing is that this type of automation for cars, if done incorrectly, could give people such a false sense of confidence that they're looking down at their phones when the car is driving itself, that when the car beeps and panics and needs the driver to take back over, it might be too late to avoid a collision. Automation in a plane is great because there isn't anything to really run into, in a car, one second of not paying attention can result in a fatality wreck.

sdiver68

Exactly. I'm a business technology consultant who is also an active road racer. Ive had a long love affair with performance cars and motorcycles.

Already, I feel my next 2 cars (both to be purchased in the next 6 months) will need to have some self driving capabilities simply for resale value. As a father I also see a whole generation of kids who care about hot rod game playing computers that otherwise might have been the next generation of performance car enthusiasts. I see Teslas all over the Coasts, and over 400k orders for the affordable version prior to the first test drive. I look at the 2017 Lexus IS and see all the auto driving features are standard. Manufacturers are offering self driving capability down into the economy car level. Uber and Lyft are taking off. Manufacturers and others are investing heavily in the ride share concept. All this is happening today.

I'm asking for group think on the future. 5-10-20 years.

balfor

While Lexus themselves is not in trouble, I am starting to question the value of a luxury car brand for the new generation of drivers coming up. Certainly the value of car ownership will diminish in the near future as Uber and other services can adequately handle urban transport. Plus, younger people are used to tech and the smartphone and tablet become the critical items to fund, not a nice car. When they do want a car, they may well just get a cheaper model and don't see the incentive to move up to a luxury version.

My daughter just graduated high school and it is fascinating to see her class with what appears to be a lukewarm feeling about cars in comparison to my generation. I got my license two weeks after I turned 16 and I was mad about the two weeks. All my friends got their license right at 16 and it was like a land rush on who turned 16 first and got to drive. Kids now don't care as much and many of them don't have a license at 17 or 18. Cars and even transport are secondary as they can create their own virtual world and entertainment with tablets and steaming content, youtube, etc.

RNM GS3

Every single electric car has been a failure.

BMW cant give their i3s away.
Lexus MB Audi cant sell their hybrid cars.
Tesla is a fashion statement for ppl that own multiple cars and want to portray a certain image. The company looses billions of dollars each year.

All this is PURE media hype - to control ppl even more. Give up ur cars, give up driving, everything will be done for you.....

So if i wake up at 2am and feel like going to some 24hr place to get food - im gonna call Uber???

Aron9000

I think the one thing you will see in the future is more people moving back into the cities and giving up on the suburbs. Its already happening where I live, some suburban parts of town are becoming way more hood and way less desirable places to live, while the old hood near dowtown now has double lot line homes selling for $700k.

Anyways, I see this as a major demographic shift, people living closer together, improved public transport in the cities to where you don't need a car. If you do need a car, things like Zip car, Uber, fractional car ownership, renting cars, etc will become all more common.

BrownPride

I'm just not a fan of this auto pilot tech. I don't trust it to work 100% of the time on 100% of the cars equipped with it. There's already a video out there of a Tesla owner sleeping behind the wheel with more of that behavior to come.

Personal opinions aside, OP makes a valid point about the effects all these new technologies and services will have in the decades to come. Whether it's a good or bad thing remains to be known.