Those who lease: thoughts on Model 3 Lease (details included)
#1
Pole Position
Thread Starter
Those who lease: thoughts on Model 3 Lease (details included)
For those who are well-versed and experienced in leasing and the structure of deals, what do you think of the Model 3 lease? Below is a snapshot of the details from the Tesla website - I don't know how to reverse engineer the math to see what the MF is, etc. Tesla does not seem to let you play with this and I'm not sure if you can negotiate if you go into the dealer..?
Here's some of my math:
Here's some of my math:
- $50k price of Model 3 long distance, 15k miles/year, paying extra for color choice (didn't know black was only "free" color), I don't see that Tesla is factoring in the $3,750 credit into this final price, so below math may drop a bit.
- $4k due at signing, $727/month for 36 months = total of $30k over 3 years
- Since I currently drive an older car (2010), I assume I will lose about $8k to $10k in value over the next 36 months.
- I also fill my car up every week @ $60/week, so $240/month x 36 months = $8,640
- At a minimum, I would spend $1k/year on maintenance that I wouldn't pay in an EV. This comes to at least $3k over the course of 3 years
- Therefore, between depreciation, gas cost, and non-EV maintenance, I will "lose" and "spend" somewhere between $19k and $21k by keeping my car for 3 years
- This means my true differential cost is $9k to $11k over the course of 3 years to have a Tesla Model 3 ($300 to $400 per month)
#2
Pole Position
The down payment here seems to be 6.5k including the “order payment”. A down payment in any lease simply pre-pays/buys down the lease payment, in this case to the tune of 180 per month. Tesla leases usually aren’t great, and this one doesn’t look like it’s going to change that. As a general rule leases ought to be zero down for myriad reasons (covered in the lease thread in the sticky topics above)
In cases like this it really just boils down to how much you like and want the car.
In cases like this it really just boils down to how much you like and want the car.
#3
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
very interesting analysis, and i'm glad you factor in current 'older' car costs as many people seem to consider their older cars 'free' once paid for.
maybe you don't get the fed tax credit because you don't own it?
given how fast things are changing (including every other day with tesla, lol) i think you're smart to lease. i think 3 year old teslas in 3 years are going to be considered like an iphone 4. despite musks claims they'll be used in self-driving fleets - maybe by tesla who will retrofit newer hardware...
new versions of the onboard computers in their cars continue to come out with 'leaps' more computing power than older ones... which again, makes ownership tricky. i think most who buy a tesla though, like most 'exotic' purchases don't think about any of that, which is fine of course, they like the quiet/electric drive, the cool factor, etc.
i can see my next vehicle being electric, but thankfully i've got a couple of years to wait, during which no doubt there will be lots of new stuff happening!
maybe you don't get the fed tax credit because you don't own it?
given how fast things are changing (including every other day with tesla, lol) i think you're smart to lease. i think 3 year old teslas in 3 years are going to be considered like an iphone 4. despite musks claims they'll be used in self-driving fleets - maybe by tesla who will retrofit newer hardware...
new versions of the onboard computers in their cars continue to come out with 'leaps' more computing power than older ones... which again, makes ownership tricky. i think most who buy a tesla though, like most 'exotic' purchases don't think about any of that, which is fine of course, they like the quiet/electric drive, the cool factor, etc.
i can see my next vehicle being electric, but thankfully i've got a couple of years to wait, during which no doubt there will be lots of new stuff happening!
#5
Pole Position
Thread Starter
The down payment here seems to be 6.5k including the “order payment”. A down payment in any lease simply pre-pays/buys down the lease payment, in this case to the tune of 180 per month. Tesla leases usually aren’t great, and this one doesn’t look like it’s going to change that. As a general rule leases ought to be zero down for myriad reasons (covered in the lease thread in the sticky topics above)
In cases like this it really just boils down to how much you like and want the car.
In cases like this it really just boils down to how much you like and want the car.
The $6.5k you reference isn't correct from what I can piece together. Tesla makes it a bit hard to understand, but the "due at signing" of $3,922 is order payment + $695 acquisition fee + 1st month payment, so the $2,500 "order payment" is already factored in. Does that make sense?
#6
Lexus Champion
Note you also have to include sales tax, and the way that is applied varies by state. Here in Washington, it is added to each lease payment. So, at 10.8% sales tax, your $727 becomes $806.
#7
Pole Position
Yes that does make sense. You may well be able to get the residual and/or MF from websites like leasehackr. If you have one you can calculate the other. I’d guess the residual here is set fairly low and the MF set fairly high - both up the payment of course, never mind the Federal credit also going to the lessor. Does the lease quote not have a residual/buyout number? Maybe they just show it on the actual paperwork.
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#8
Pole Position
Thread Starter
very interesting analysis, and i'm glad you factor in current 'older' car costs as many people seem to consider their older cars 'free' once paid for.
maybe you don't get the fed tax credit because you don't own it?
given how fast things are changing (including every other day with tesla, lol) i think you're smart to lease. i think 3 year old teslas in 3 years are going to be considered like an iphone 4. despite musks claims they'll be used in self-driving fleets - maybe by tesla who will retrofit newer hardware...
new versions of the onboard computers in their cars continue to come out with 'leaps' more computing power than older ones... which again, makes ownership tricky. i think most who buy a tesla though, like most 'exotic' purchases don't think about any of that, which is fine of course, they like the quiet/electric drive, the cool factor, etc.
i can see my next vehicle being electric, but thankfully i've got a couple of years to wait, during which no doubt there will be lots of new stuff happening!
maybe you don't get the fed tax credit because you don't own it?
given how fast things are changing (including every other day with tesla, lol) i think you're smart to lease. i think 3 year old teslas in 3 years are going to be considered like an iphone 4. despite musks claims they'll be used in self-driving fleets - maybe by tesla who will retrofit newer hardware...
new versions of the onboard computers in their cars continue to come out with 'leaps' more computing power than older ones... which again, makes ownership tricky. i think most who buy a tesla though, like most 'exotic' purchases don't think about any of that, which is fine of course, they like the quiet/electric drive, the cool factor, etc.
i can see my next vehicle being electric, but thankfully i've got a couple of years to wait, during which no doubt there will be lots of new stuff happening!
No matter which way you slice it, you almost always lose money on cars. In this case, it's interesting that I'm seeing I may only lose about $10k over the course of 3 years over the cost of keeping my current LS. If I have to replace control arms and have a brake actuator issue like 2007-2009 models are prone to, it could very easily become almost a wash to lease a Model 3.
#9
Pole Position
Thread Starter
Good point, didn't factor that in. In FL I think it's 6%. I could argue I should use that as a constant variable that would apply to any decision I make on getting rid of my LS and buying something different.
#10
Pole Position
Thread Starter
Yes that does make sense. You may well be able to get the residual and/or MF from websites like leasehackr. If you have one you can calculate the other. I’d guess the residual here is set fairly low and the MF set fairly high - both up the payment of course, never mind the Federal credit also going to the lessor. Does the lease quote not have a residual/buyout number? Maybe they just show it on the actual paperwork.
#11
Lead Lap
Funny I just plugged in some average numbers in a lease calculator and came up with the exact payment you have (not including sales tax) using a 50% residual and a 3% interest rate (0.00125 MF). Not totally out of bounds.
#12
Lexus Test Driver
From my experience, you can easily lease a $50k vehicle like RX or ES for about $500 per month with $0 down.
This model 3 lease is a HUGE ripoff.
If you really like the car, it will probably be better to finance it.
Also I don’t see the cost of charging the model 3 in your analysis vs what your currently spending on gas.
This model 3 lease is a HUGE ripoff.
If you really like the car, it will probably be better to finance it.
Also I don’t see the cost of charging the model 3 in your analysis vs what your currently spending on gas.
Last edited by RNM GS3; 04-18-19 at 08:04 AM.
#13
Pole Position
Thread Starter
From my experience, you can easily lease a $50k vehicle like RX or ES for about $500 per month with $0 down.
This model 3 lease is a HUGE ripoff.
If you really like the car, it will probably be better to finance it.
Also I don’t see the cost of charging the model 3 in your analysis vs what your currently spending on gas.
This model 3 lease is a HUGE ripoff.
If you really like the car, it will probably be better to finance it.
Also I don’t see the cost of charging the model 3 in your analysis vs what your currently spending on gas.
#14
Lead Lap
From my experience, you can easily lease a $50k vehicle like RX or ES for about $500 per month with $0 down.
This model 3 lease is a HUGE ripoff.
If you really like the car, it will probably be better to finance it.
Also I don’t see the cost of charging the model 3 in your analysis vs what your currently spending on gas.
This model 3 lease is a HUGE ripoff.
If you really like the car, it will probably be better to finance it.
Also I don’t see the cost of charging the model 3 in your analysis vs what your currently spending on gas.
#15
I'm not sure where your Lexus leasing experience is from, but locally, with zero down a $50000 ES lease is around $700/month with sales tax included. That is with a 55% residual and .001 MF. To get there, a cap reduction of around $7500 by the dealer was required.