RC350Fan

Lexus sold 107,490 RX 350s in 2014.

1. What do you think they'll sell in CY 2016 (full year of the new model)?

2. Do you think that the NX will cannabilize RX sales?

You have to believe that some people who would buy the RX will go for the NX.

I'm curious how successful you think the new RX will be. Personally, I think they've hit it out of the park, but I know the spindle grille on the F Sport is polarizing.

TorontoIS

I think that the new RX will outsell the current model. I don't think that the NX will cannabilize that many sales away from the RX. That being said, I am a current RX owner who prefers the smaller size of the NX and will probably buy the NX as my next car. I do admit that the new interior of the RX is making me have second thoughts about possibly buying the NX in the future.

SW17LS

It will sell significantly better than the current model.

The NX will certainly cannibalize lower end RX sales, this new RX will likely be more expensive. The 4RX though will attract upper end buyers that the current car doesn't attract. That $65k buyer, the 3RX is not nearly well appointed enough to compete with the X5s and Range Rover Sports of the world, but this RX is.

corradoMR2

With the steady shift in interest towards SUVs in N.America, I predict for CY '16 for the US:

NX: 40k units
RX: 100k units

So no cannibalization between the two in the US. However, I expect a decrease in IS sales as I believe some would-be IS buyers will be swayed by the NX's style and versatility for the same price.

In Canada, dare I say the NX may surpass the RX in sales thanks to its market interest in compact sedans/SUVs over midsize ones. The NX is 80% the RX sales in March and trending a take over in just a few months!

Cruiter

Joe, I think your forecast is as close to being right as can be forecast at this point. I don't think the NX will affect RX sales, I do think it will provide an additional market to Lexus and that's what it was designed to do. They certainly didn't want the NX to have a negative affect on their best selling model.

rogerh00

I just traded in my 3RX for an NX. Joe traded in his 3RX for an NX, and there are many others. I was going to wait for the 4RX but after hearing the 4RX was going to be larger and more expensive I went with the NX. It's really because I was ready to downsize. So is my switch a trend or a small event, that is the question, who knows. I wonder if the 65K buyer will really want such a radical design. I think they are more inclined to have their Luxury in more subtle designs. I'm guessing your going to see a lowering of overall RX sales but not a lot. But the days of 100k/yr sales are a thing of the past.

SW17LS

This vehicle is not that radical guys lol

ericsan13

It's a matter of opinion, but so far the effect has been polarizing as seen on the "2016 Lexus RX revealed" thread. Here's a list of questionable design choices:

1. Big front overhang (beak)
2. Predator grill (I see and hear this a lot outside the forum)
3. Front lower spoiler protrudes
4. Glass C pillar
5. Squarish plastic fender arches
6. Poptart nav screen

If there were a few less of these, it might be an easier pill to swallow. It's hard to get behind a look that is so polarizing, even within the supportive lexus forum. You don't want to buy or show off a car where the look has to "grow" on you. Otherwise I think the exterior and interior is gorgeous and a big improvement over 3RX!

Nobeanspls

The Germans have been doing polarizing designs for years. It does not seem to hurt their sales. Lexus is just trying the same thing. Stale designs are not going to get you new buyers. Its not like this is a Pontiac Aztek looking thing.

SW17LS

Like I said before...I've been on these forums for 15 years, the exact same reactions happen whenever a new model is released. Well before the spindle grill era. The new RX will do fine, and a lot of those people who "hate" it now, will have them later. Go back through the forums when the 4GS came out, the 3GS, the 3LS, 4LS, 2.5LS, the 2IS, the 3RX, the 2RX. Its always been exactly the same.

Its fun to find those old threads, and see the members who's sigs now say they own the cars bashing them.

BertL

Ah, yes, but like I've also said, as have others, some of us may have purchased e.g a 3rd Gen RX, even though we did not fully love (and in my case, still not love) some of the design elements like the front end grille.

For me, as I suspect many others, it comes down to at the time one decides to purchase, how all the pros and cons of a particular vehicle stack up at that point-in-time across available manufacturer and model options, as to what we buy. For me, as a Lexus owner since 1995, and having owned every gen of RX, I've gotten to the point I thought I'd probably always have at least one Lexus in my garage the day I someday die. Unfortunately, the increasingly polarizing front end grille and hard-edge design Lexus is electing to promote in all their non-F-Sport designs, to likely capture a younger and more social-media-focused target market as demonstrated in recent commercials, will be a negative for some of us somewhat "old timers" when we create our own pros and cons list of what's available when the time comes to buy a new vehicle -- be that a mid-sized SUV like the RX, or something else.

I hopefully have 30+ more years of car purchasing and ownership in-sight, so have many more vehicles to procure in my lifetime, but how my ride looks, is nearly as important as how reliable it is, how it acts on the road, and how it's appointments stack up. A car purchase for many people is as much about emotion -- and therefore for me, how it's looks appeal to me as the buyer -- as it is price, functionality, and service. Fortunately for Lexus, but as sad as it makes me, I'm just one loyal 20-year owner they will likely end up loosing to hopefully gain a broader market share when the time comes to replace my RXh. It's business. Lexus has made some critical strategic decisions for Toyota. I get it, and hope Toyota prospers. ...but as an enthusiast myself, and what could have been a probable buyer, the 4th gen RX has gone too far with it's exterior design choices to get me excited with this weeks announcement, and perhaps pull-in a replacement for my current RX. I'll just continue enjoying my 2013 RX450h for a few more years, even though I curse it's original spindle grille every time I wash and take an extended amount of time to dry each of its "slats" and their many vertical stabilizing elements, opposed to perhaps double the number I would someday have to deal with on a 4th gen.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

wrong when it comes to cuv/suvs. if you look at x1, x3, x5, q5, q7, glk, ml, gl they're all VERY conservative in design.

this new rx is definitely 'out there'. many will love it. others not so much. i find it screams 'look at me please' and don't care for it.

but i've no doubt it will sell well. i don't think the competition though will have to worry. rx has always played to a loyal and fairly unique audience.

TechNut

Bitkihuna, you state "the RX has always played to a loyal and fairly unique audience." I agree. If we subscribe to this proposition, it would seem Lexus may have just gone shopping for a new audience for the RX. An interesting and bold decision. I hope it works well for them and who knows, perhaps I will someday come to like or at least accept the new gaping grill.

I really wish I knew what they were thinking. I don't mind the look/shape of the spindle grill design, it is really more the size that turns me off. They look too muck like copycats of the new Audi design, which has to be about the ugliest thing on this planet. I wonder if Lexus vehicles are having overheating problems because it sure looks like they want to scoop up more air as they move down the road.

UCSB

I think the RX will do pretty well. These design choices tend to grow on people with time. Also with the majority of people on leases, the leases will end and they will move into current models. Many Lexus buyers are pretty brand loyal and may stick with the brand even if they are not 100% behind the vehicle. Others, and I may fit into this group, may just drive their current vehicle a little longer because they may not feel a strong desire to upgrade.

spwolf

RX and NX are selling now, so we can see that there is no real cannibalization of sales.

In fact, Lexus said few days back how NX is actually giving them more RX customers, since people come in interested in NX due to the design and end up buying RX that they did not consider before.

Worldwide, RX will certainly sell better... in the USA, it already sells crazy well so we will see what exactly is the plateau for RX sales, is it 110k or more? At some point, it will have to stop growing.

They will also need to upgrade the plant capacity if they want to sell more.