I am looking to pick up a 2016 F sport but my budget is in the $40,000 ballpark. Seems like most of them are going for around $48,000 right now. I know the 2018 model is around the corner, do you think the 2016 model will come down that much after the 2018s come out?

 

That would be roughly 30% off MSRP for an fSport even if it's a 2017 leftover- highly doubtful you will find one for that.

 

The prices of used cars don't just drop in a single big change at the time when a new model year starts. Instead, they drop gradually throughout the course of the year. Thus, as we approach the end of the 2017 model year, most of the decrease in value for a 2016 RX for this year has already happened.

A major reason why the prices for used 2016 RXs are still high is a simple matter of supply and demand. Not that many 2016s have yet come back to dealers in the form of trade-ins or lease returns. Thus, the supply of them is relatively small. On the other hand, there are a large number of people who want to buy a vehicle that is "almost new".

Thus, high demand and low supply is what makes 1-2 year old Lexus CPO vehicles among the worst car buys available in the market. Dealers typically hold to high prices, and, with the high level of discounting that is, for example, available on a remaining 2017 RX, for a few thousand more than one would pay for a 2016 CPO RX, a remaining brand new 2017 RX could likely be bought.