texasdan

Jumping from a 2nd gen. (2009) to a 3rd gen.

Combated between three options :

-2011 FWD with low mileage (>45,000) and great price, but no blind spot monitor (not even sure if the 2011 had it as option?) Perfect color combo; only 1 key. dealer is a little far away

-A 2013 or 2014 FWD units coming from up north (NJ or NY: concerned about corrosion once brought down to TX), not the colors I want, but blindspot monitor; pricing $7000 higher than 2011 but low mileage (between 35,000 and 59,000);

-2015 units (2 to pick from) AWD my color combos, but pricing between $31k and $36, mileage between 20-40k, both from up North again, of course with blindspot monitors...

My '09 was AWD, but in Texas and for my type of driving in Houston (equal city+ hwy) not sure there are many advantages. Only major differences I saw from 2011 to other models I am considering is fuel grade (wouldn't be a huge saving); and with 2015 you seem to get some slightly better sound system/radio and I'd have nav (not needed).

All cars have clean Carfaxes (damaged and accident units really halved the no. of units I could have considered, alas)

Mostly focused on resale value about 5 years down the line & potential warranty needs vs. obviously total cost (also include higher insurance cost for newer car).; I'll be driving 8-10k/year. I am leaning towards 2011 because of price, even if it has only one key (how much to make a spare one?) + perhaps an aftermarket warranty (came handy with rear seal leak and steering rack issues with the 2009........). Wife of course leaning more for the most expensive, newest one! ;-)

Thanks for any feedback on any of the points above!

Dan

Clutchless

There was a mid model refresh in 2013, so I would skip the 2011 vehicle. A new key is about $150 if I recall correctly.
As far as rust, it will just be minimal surface rust on some chassis components and I would not worry about it. I have it on mine, It is not going to cause any issues. You did not state prices of 2013 or 2014 vehicles, but I would only consider something with lower mileage. If you can budget it get one of the 2015 units with lower mileage as they will have even more features and the infotainment system is FAR SUPERIOR to what is in earlier models.

raytseng

get the 2015 model as it will have some Warranty left, so you can get whatever you need fixed. As more come off lease, there should be a additional supply of 2015 so don't feel this is all that's out there.

texasdan

Thanks for the comments and the reassurance on the rust.. You are probably right, I cannot say for sure that my own rear seal and steering rack leaks on the '09 were necessarily linked to the rust... but every time I take it into Lexus down here, the mechanics give me a hard time about it, saying "oh does this come from up North? never seen this level of rust on a car from down here.." And yes, previous owner was in Denver....


As to pricing for the 2013-2014 units, it's $28-$29k. I have seen some $26ish but wife won't approve of the color combos....... A lot of dark interiors cars in this market, it seems, but she's convinced the car gets way too hot in a Houston scorcher.. That's why I said, we need the comfort package (and not sure if in any package, a remote starter!)

Market seems to be VERY efficient when it comes to pricing these cars, at least over here... I seem to notice a $0.2-0.3/mile differential across cars, but year seems to be more important of a metric, with a slight falloff in price as you get closer to warranty exp. Options are not as big of a needle mover; obviously previous damage is. Cars from the North East or from FL brought down here, seem a little cheaper everything else being equal.

texasdan

Thank you for the feedback.

What do you reckon a major dealer is willing to move in order to move a car they know is a good seller anyway? $500? $1000? What's the best way to make them come off some on the price? I am sure they have plenty margin baked into a mid $30k figure!

raytseng

You need to consider if this is a Lexus dealer cpo or non-lexus dealer or non-CPO.

For the CPO you'll get extended warranty, plus like 4services (really 2 inspections, and 2 oil changes) (this you should value at about $500 if you were to pay out of pocket at a lexus dealer).
If you consider they probably spent about $2000 in value to prep the car too, (basic 30k service, new tires, and detail) versus from a non-lexus dealer or non-cpo.
So you should expect a CPO car to be priced $3000 or so higher than a non-cpo of same condition (likely non-cpo will be worse condition so you have to adjust for that).

I think if you go on cargurus.com looking at "good deal" is decent guidance on the pricing advice-as a starting point.
Ultimately you need to like the car.
The best way to come if for you to know your own price in the first place. Don't just negotiate for the sake of negotiating. You need to know what you'll be happy with and how much the thing is worth to you.

texasdan

Yes the 2015 is CPO, all the others were non Lexus.

Mmmm. the 30,000 mile service is just oil , air and cabin filter really, I can do all that myself for $100... Detailing, $200 gets you a darn good job over here..
I saw the Lexus folks on the car, they had just started at lunchtime, and I bet they'd be done by 5:00 even if the car looked in bad shape... So ok 5h labor for the 3 people doing it... and yes, of course the time spent "checking" the car for the certification.

They didn't put on new tires that I could see, but I'd have to check back.. That would be worth something to me, although I always prefer to pick my own tires (I like Pirelli Scorpion Verde, great price/quality ratio by the way).

Totally agree on your last comment: gotta decide how much I want to shoot for, thanks for your comments! I'll do more research on KBB, Carguru etc.

raytseng

Yea, assuming a 3year lease, it should be around 30,000 miles. Around 30,000 miles the OEM tires should be worn lower than acceptable for a CPO (5/32), so tires SHOULD be replaced under the CPO checklist. Of course, if the cpo is for a 10,000mile car or something else, might be different.

Clutchless

Also the third generation has electronic power steering so no worries about leaks!
Regarding chassis rust, I got a couple of spray cans of Fluid Film at Lowes and sprayed the rusty chassis & suspension areas. It lasts about a year and slows down the rust. It is popular for this purpose as you will find with a little research.

texasdan

Considering we get our fair amount of water down here (!!!) and it's not unusual to have to drive in a foot of water sometimes, I'll certainly follow your advice with my new car!

takeshi74

I'd generally recommend getting the latest model and lowest miles that fit your budget for any vehicle. Like other above also recommend considering the L/Certified CPO since it has a factory warranty (which is 6 years/unlimited miles from original in service date) and you can get an extended factory warranty for lower cost while it's still under the original warranty versus getting an aftermarket warranty. The services included with L/Certified cover 2 years or 20K, whichever comes first and, of course, dealers provide complimentary loaners while your vehicle is in for service.

Good to check Carfax but don't rely solely on it. Carfax doesn't always have everything.

Definitely get whichever one you're considering inspected. There are inspection services. We're in Houston as well and used a service to inspect a 450h in Austin before purchasing even though it was also L/Certified. The in service date for our 450h was late 2015 so the L-Certified warranty runs through 2021. We purchased another 3 years on top of that.

texasdan

Takeshi74, thank you for your feedback.

You are ABSOLUTELY right about Carfax not being enough.. A couple of units that I checked out through the Lexus service history system showed up damage (clearly an accident) that Carfax didn't mention!! Really made me concerned about the honesty of some dealers..
So I went to check out a couple of cars yesterday and here's the updated situation.

CPO one: out of race alas.. Another 2015 unit I found drove GREAT, butter smooth steering, very little rust underneath (didn't realize the car is so much more covered up everywhere now: can't really see the rocker panel, engine bay is totally sealed etc... so hard to take a good look): BUT it has a rather large dent on the hood (carfax shows no damage!), a couple of small scratches and so-so leather, and on top of that it has a replaced windshield (I am not good enough to tell if the windshield and the hood dent point to something more serious perhaps...........): dealer will fix dent/scratches but then will not negotiate on start price; or say we can negotiate and but I keep it as is. Highest price of the bunch. And they say that with the flood car prices are going only up yadayada so if "I don't want it I don't have to take it" (verbatim) Mmmm. I call BS to that, as the proof of a car price is in the pudding: competition prices significantly cheaper...so I will choose with my feet and go elsewhere probably!

Found a new 2015 unit (FWD though) but other than that, perfectly the same as the one above minus the scratches etc: all checks out great on Carfax & Lexus alike, and $1500 cheaper sticker and I know this dealer will go down significantly... Just need to decide how much to ask for and I need to ask what aftermarket warranties they offer..

Quick question, what do you guys think, best to buy an extended warranty through a dealer or directly? Pros, cons? Is the extended factory warranty that you mention cheaper than an aftermarket one ? Thank you in advance!


Didn't have time to make it to the other ones yet... but they checked out good on Lexus; I have also found a few more "older" options, with some 2012 models with about 60-70k.. but priced below the 2011..... may even consider that as I know the RX will easily go 100k with no repairs whatsoever and I am leaning towards getting an aftermarket warranty anyway..

Now back to my research: as I cannot look at cars today I can at least try figure out true $ value of a car...

raytseng

Dan,
You got some inconsistency in your logic. In some of your responses, it seemed like you were OK with doing service yourself or getting it done not by the dealer.
If that's your thinking with SERVICE it makes no sense that you'd have a different set of thinking regarding WARRANTY.
If you're OK paying for SERVICE out of pocket, the same line of thinking should be you are ok with paying with future repairs out of pocket too instead of via a warranty contract.

If you were already agonizing over a $ for the price of the car; ext. warranty contracts (or service contracts ) is 10x worse. They have extremely high margins, one-sided information, and unknown since you may be paying for something you never use. The dealer will easily throw out a number like $3500 for an service contract or warranty contract (each). Should you decide this is something you want, be you can counter at around 50% of their original quote, and they will still make money off of you. If you were playing hardball with the car pricing, play even harder ball with service/warranty contracts if you want it.

You already saw some of the dealer tricks playing on your fears that no more cars are coming you better buy now, if you even show some interest in a service/warranty contract they're going to do the same with a warranty sell. While your local market maybe different, at least in CA, there's plenty of 2015 rx350 supply coming off lease. On truecar you can see a lot of the "good deals" are available, and have sat on the lot for 30-40 days. If Texas dealers really are just selling their inventory like hotcakes, they should be able to outbid the CA dealers for these lease returns at the auctions.

As far as my original advice on a 2015 for remaining warranty or getting a CPO warranty, my thought process in that advice is just to have some remaining warranty while the car is new to you. As long as you have say 6months of remaining original warranty, or a couple years of CPO warranty, within that time you should be find the small problems you may not have noticed on delivery, get that fixed, and then the car is yours from there on out.

texasdan

Ray thanks for your input. To me, routine maintenance and more challenging repairs are not necessarily the same. Service costs are quantifiable and limited (and easy to do myself): so I am ok to save on those. Bigger repairs can really ruin monthly cashflow, so same as insurance I don't necessarily think it's wasted money to put a hedge on that risk...

If I get 14 or 15 car, I will probably forego the after market warranty for now; if I get a 2011 or 2012 I may consider one if I can find something not more than ~$2,000 (obviously depends on what it covers etc)...

I will surely start paying attention on how long cars have been sitting based on Carfax refurb dates; but with one car being snatched away from me and several disappearing from my cars.com & autotrader.com favorites each day, I believe that the GOOD units don't sit too long -and by good I obviously mean price, miles, conditions, and favorite colors for the local market etc.

Tomorrow back on the hunting trail! Hopefully I will find a dealer more willing to work with me on price than the last couple...

texasdan

ah these dealers are driving me nuts! Found a car with not exactly clean carfax... but I like it (esp the color) and was ready to do a deal. Asked for 6% off and the dealer told me, "no can do", wouldn't move at all!!!!!!! And they did offer me a stupidly high after market warranty btw which I laughed at.
When I can find a similar vehicle with clean carfax (but not as well kept) for 4% below their asking price, they just said the sticker price was so much higher and they had gone down already (well they didn't move at all from website listing price I argued)..
I just walked away... Did I do the right thing? Should I just bite the bullet and meet him half way? I thought dealers have plenty of room to maneuver down....