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DedBirdDog's data show that even for similarly low mileage cars going from 2013 to 2010 lose $10-12K in value. The question is this because you are going from 6yr to 9yr old cars. Are there fatal flaws in the pre-2013 that make them less valued? It does not appear to be mileage. If we had the 2011 and 2012 auction values it would help to see if it is just year by year decline or a cliff for the pre 2013 LS460s.
Real data is great, and it's a good baseline. However when someone goes to buy a car, there are many factors that determine what it's worth to the buyer.
Dealer have no emotional attachment it's just sheet metal to them. However for the buyer it comes down to does the car you find have the right colors, options, features and
is it geographically close enough to view the car.
Personally I have been willing to spend more money on a used car that I felt was the right fit for me, rather then spending a long time trying to find the cheapest cars. I just purchased a third Gen GS430, and I paid a bit more to get a car that worked for me. It's different in my case as there are very few Gen 3 GS430's made, however I do not stress out over a few bucks here or there. If you plan to keep the car and you did your research then buy the car that works for you.
That is exactly why the raw data from the dealers are helpful. They remove the emotional aspects. Of course we are all just trying to enjoy these engineering marvels but if the pre-2013s are moneypits then it just makes sense to pay a premium for the 2013+ to avoid the headaches. On the other hand if they all suffer the same fate eventually the pre-2013s can be had for great bargains.
That is exactly why the raw data from the dealers are helpful. They remove the emotional aspects. Of course we are all just trying to enjoy these engineering marvels but if the pre-2013s are moneypits then it just makes sense to pay a premium for the 2013+ to avoid the headaches. On the other hand if they all suffer the same fate eventually the pre-2013s can be had for great bargains.
There were many cars built pre-2013 that are perfectly fine and reliable. Yes some have issues and expensive fixes, but buying a 2013+ does not guarantee fewer issues, it’s just seems some of the major flaws were redesigned. There are some great deals on pre 2013’s, and we all know when you buy a complex machine when they age they are prone to more mechanical failures new or used.
As a newbie myself in search of my own LS unicorn, I have noticed a trend that seems to show sales prices being much higher up here in the northwest. And I’m not sure I understand why that is. Possibly because inventory also seems lower. I’d be curious to hear from DedBirdDog if his MMR data confirms this. Seems to me that if I open my search area up the best deals are mostly in the South East. Then that begs the question of how do you go get it and then get it home. Air fare and shipping are both expensive options.
As a newbie myself in search of my own LS unicorn, I have noticed a trend that seems to show sales prices being much higher up here in the northwest. And I’m not sure I understand why that is. Possibly because inventory also seems lower. I’d be curious to hear from DedBirdDog if his MMR data confirms this. Seems to me that if I open my search area up the best deals are mostly in the South East. Then that begs the question of how do you go get it and then get it home. Air fare and shipping are both expensive options.
Most of those cars are going to be RWD, which is partly why they cost less. I didn't see any RWD cars for sale here in NJ when I was looking.
There are way more pre-2013s so if they turn out to be relatively same reliability they will be much more available
Will be curious to see what 2011 and 2012 dealer auction values relative to the 2013s above
Not a dealer. But I do have access to dealer-only auctions and I can certainly see what these cars actually sell for. The MMR wholesale number falls off rapidly after 75k miles and I see it clearly in sales prices. It doesn't make a bit of difference what you, or I, or anyone else thinks, it's just fact. And MMR in dealer auctions drives the prices. How about this. You provide our members with your wisdom about the values and I'll keep the actual numbers to myself. Helping people save thousands of dollars should be a benefit. But hey, you know all about it so you help them.
What's the old adage about no good deed going unpunished? Yeah. clearly. Good luck with your next purchase.
The issue is those numbers your posting aren't even that far off from retail, but your talking like these cars can be had for peanuts , and your auction stats prove they cannot.
The OP is looking for advice and your steering him towards a magical unicorn that isn't there....even if you could get him those auction prices he would not be doing much better then the white one he found from the dealer.
again not trying to be rude, but even with these charts you can see there is no magical pricing for anyone , these prices are actually very much on par with what we can see in the retail market.
would anyone here pay $32 500 for a "site unseen" 2013 ls460 with 40 000 miles? I know forsure I would not. But some dealer did , and now he has the hard time of trying to turn a profit on it.
Most of the 13+ models are selling for mid to high $20's and some selling into the $30's, at wholesale …… its not that far off from retail and nothing that I would bid on personally.
Then go down to the early gen 460's and its even worse , they are all high mileage base models that cant sell on the lots anymore , and you have to buy them site unseen.
Would I pay $6600 for a 230 000 mile base model that I cant have checked out before I pay ? absolutely not.
$12900 for a base model with 88 000 miles site unseen? No thanks
There is nothing on that list that I would be interested in personally, except for maybe the $17000 2013 but it has a line where it should say condition, meaning its probably an accident vehicle, and in that case
Im just saying there is no magical market , and the stuff being said isn't really true
The white 08 in the original post would probably sell for $13-$14k at auction , after they pay tax, fix it up , clean it up, pay for travel and storage, there is not much meat left on the bone.
Honestly, and I'm not trying to be rude, but you really don't know what you're talking about. I'll make one last try at this and then I'm done.
Almost 10 million cars per year go through various auto auctions. For the big dealer auctions such as Manheim and ADESA, cars are mechanically inspected by the staff and assigned a condition report. These cars are warrantied by the auction to be what they are represented and unless marked "as-is", are subject to arbitration for anything that isn't represented correctly. Dealers buy and retail these cars ALL THE TIME. All of the manufacturers run cars through the auctions as well. Right now (today) there are right at 140k cars up for auction at just Manheim facilities across the US and Canada. Lexus Financial Services just put through a batch of 2018 LS500's with less than 100 miles on them. The idea that "all auction cars have issues" couldn't be more inaccurate. If there is an issue, it shows in the CR. Period.
What you don't seem to grasp here is the concept of wholesale value. Before the internet, a used car dealer would use a either a NADA guide or a Black Book guide, which came out every month in hard print. Today, MMR is pretty much the gold standard in used car valuation. When you go to trade your car, the used car manager has to be able to assign a wholesale value to it. After he/she inspects it, they go pull the MMR and adjust accordingly. What that means is that number indicates the negotiating floor. If a buyer knows where the floor is, then they are in a FAR better position to negotiate a better deal. No, you aren't going to out and buy a car at a wholesale price unless you have auction access. But knowing the floor, you can add that $1500 or so profit margin and make a reasonable offer to anyone, anywhere. Even a casual look at any of the values I've given have shown that fair market value pricing of wholesale plus profit. Your alternative is to just trust the dealer when he tells you "it's a great deal, son!" as you sign the papers and he plans his next Hawaii vacation.
In any negotiation, knowledge is power. The more you know, the better off you are in negotiating a fair price. In the 6 months I've been here, I've seen some of our members get absolutely fleeced on pricing. I can't even begin to tell you how much that pisses me off. The whole point of providing numbers is to better educate the people here as to what these cars are actually worth in the real world. That number, like it or not, is what dealers buy and sell them for. If you'd rather go tackle purchasing in the blind, more power to you.
Not a dealer. But I do have access to dealer-only auctions and I can certainly see what these cars actually sell for. The MMR wholesale number falls off rapidly after 75k miles and I see it clearly in sales prices. It doesn't make a bit of difference what you, or I, or anyone else thinks, it's just fact. And MMR in dealer auctions drives the prices. How about this. You provide our members with your wisdom about the values and I'll keep the actual numbers to myself. Helping people save thousands of dollars should be a benefit. But hey, you know all about it so you help them.
What's the old adage about no good deed going unpunished? Yeah. clearly. Good luck with your next purchase.
Originally Posted by DedBirdDog
Honestly, and I'm not trying to be rude, but you really don't know what you're talking about. I'll make one last try at this and then I'm done.
Almost 10 million cars per year go through various auto auctions. For the big dealer auctions such as Manheim and ADESA, cars are mechanically inspected by the staff and assigned a condition report. These cars are warrantied by the auction to be what they are represented and unless marked "as-is", are subject to arbitration for anything that isn't represented correctly. Dealers buy and retail these cars ALL THE TIME. All of the manufacturers run cars through the auctions as well. Right now (today) there are right at 140k cars up for auction at just Manheim facilities across the US and Canada. Lexus Financial Services just put through a batch of 2018 LS500's with less than 100 miles on them. The idea that "all auction cars have issues" couldn't be more inaccurate. If there is an issue, it shows in the CR. Period.
What you don't seem to grasp here is the concept of wholesale value. Before the internet, a used car dealer would use a either a NADA guide or a Black Book guide, which came out every month in hard print. Today, MMR is pretty much the gold standard in used car valuation. When you go to trade your car, the used car manager has to be able to assign a wholesale value to it. After he/she inspects it, they go pull the MMR and adjust accordingly. What that means is that number indicates the negotiating floor. If a buyer knows where the floor is, then they are in a FAR better position to negotiate a better deal. No, you aren't going to out and buy a car at a wholesale price unless you have auction access. But knowing the floor, you can add that $1500 or so profit margin and make a reasonable offer to anyone, anywhere. Even a casual look at any of the values I've given have shown that fair market value pricing of wholesale plus profit. Your alternative is to just trust the dealer when he tells you "it's a great deal, son!" as you sign the papers and he plans his next Hawaii vacation.
In any negotiation, knowledge is power. The more you know, the better off you are in negotiating a fair price. In the 6 months I've been here, I've seen some of our members get absolutely fleeced on pricing. I can't even begin to tell you how much that pisses me off. The whole point of providing numbers is to better educate the people here as to what these cars are actually worth in the real world. That number, like it or not, is what dealers buy and sell them for. If you'd rather go tackle purchasing in the blind, more power to you.
The fact that they have some sort of warranty on the auction cars does help somewhat, but that still doesn't mean they are ready for retail.
You can see in the auction lists they rate the condition of them out of 5.0, many are in the 3's , some have no rating , so it means they might very well need work or repairs to get road worthy.
And when you say that you should know the bottom wholesale value of these cars yes that's 100% true, but saying to add $1500 on top of that doesn't even cover the taxes the dealers must pay to get the car...let alone their repairs, tires, detailing, shipping fees , and of course the almighty PROFIT.
If the dealer buys a car for $13 000 at wholesale and u offer them $14 500 they would not be able to further a conversation with you ….. you would not be taken seriously as a customer.
If a person wants real wholesale they are much better off staying in the public market, dealing with people rather then business, which is what I do.
I hear what your saying but that still doesn't help the OP looking for a car …. if these cars values are dropping off so fast after 75 000 miles perhaps you can show him where to find one, because again even at auction prices there is nothing too special there from what im seeing.
MMR is $14,850 with expected retail of $19, 450. Substantial adds for low mileage and CR. I went with 4.0 out of 5. A neutral CR is 3.1. Given that the car is at a Lexus dealer, I wouldn't expect them to negotiate a whole lot. For whatever reason they all seem to think their used cars are worth more than everyone else's, and they simply are not. They do know that people will pay them no avd and they fully exploit it. Your ideal buy number here is $16,500 but like TriC said I doubt you'll get there.
The above post by Dedbird seems to me, to be the best answer to the OP's original question. These numbers, are data driven, and based on what I see, reflect the real world cost . Somewhere along the way, the discussion turned to value, regarding pre 2013 vs. post 2013. No MMR is going to give you value, because value is determined by the individual. The data is what it is.
Personally, I like the 2008 the OP is considering. It's the right car, in the right location for the OP. IMHO, I don't really like the newer model styling, and the few additional gadgets don't entice me either. It looks like a comparable 2013 would be in the neighborhood of $20K more https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-...ckType=listing
I also think it's to soon to predict that the newer models will have far less maintenance cost. There's something to e said for the devil that you know. Not every pre 2013 brake actuator, control arm, ML amp, and board failed prematurely. And as has been previously pointed out, they can be remedied. Finally, they're asking $19,800, for a car that sold for $100,000 new less than 70K miles ago. You're not far from the $16,500 proposed, good deal number. I'd rather save the $20K, and take the chance on that beautiful car. Just my 2 cents worth of value opinion.
I just bought a 09 with 75k from a Audi/Lexus dealer for $16900.00. New tires. New brakes. Brake actuator and control arms done. No air suspension. Park assist. Mark Levinson Sound. So far I love it. Based on like cars for sale in my area, it seems like I got a ok deal. Mine was much nicer than others I looked at. Good luck.
I went to look at the car over the weekend. I spent over two hours with the car to try all the features and the dealer let me drive off for an hour on my own. It is completely loaded with every option heated,ventilated, powered reclining rear seats, 4 zone climate, adaptive cruise control, self parking guidance. Air suspension, engine and brakes all smooth. The car was clearly pampered because everything looked great and worked flawlessly for an 11 year old car.
As expected the dealer would not budge at all on the number except to throw in some floor mats. As loaded as the car is it actually seems a fair number but I was still worried about the 7-12 pre facelift problems. I was so tempted to pull the trigger based on the adaptive cruise control and 4 zone climate alone.
Are there years 13+ ls460L with adaptive cruise control?
03-20-19, 08:22 AM
