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Are you saying $20K on an 11 year old low mileage, fully loaded, ultra luxury L is too much?
Or are the pre-2013s too fatally flawed to bother with once your have replaced the known problems?
I searched and 2013s L fully loaded ultra luxury about same mileage are now north of $30K. They are now six years old cars now and if I wait 3yrs for them to drop wouldn't I be looking at 9-10 year old cars at that time anyway. Once these cars get above 100K miles you are going to have to expect some costs. I had mentally budgeted $10K for the usual control arms, air suspension, brake actuator, ML amp, etc. But if I put that $10K towards 2013+ am I free of those issues or are you going to have to expect to replace them anyway once the cars get past 100K miles. I am trying to get a realistic budget. Anybody with 2013+ experience the same control arms, brake actuator issues. Are the ultra luxury any better quality or reliability?
Once any of these cars cross the 75k mile threshold, the bottom will fall out of its value. You are paying a significant premium for that extra 15k miles. The pre-2013 cars, and especially the pre-2011 cars, have a well-documented history of very expensive repairs. The jury is still out to some degree on the 2013+ cars, although the anecdotal evidence certainly suggests at this point that the problems have largely been corrected. Given the choice between a 60k mile pre-2012 car and a 100k 2013+, I'd take the 2013+ every time and twice on Sunday. What I can tell our members here is what these cars are actually worth on the dealer market. If you plan on keeping it forever, that may not be all that relevant. But if you don't, you need to understand what dealer value actually is. They have no emotional attachment and they don't care how well it's maintained or even to a large degree what options it has. It's a stone cold dollar value and chances are, if you trade your car, you're not going to like it all that much. There is a huge gap in what owners think their cars are worth and what dealers think they're worth. Be aware of that.
Given the choice between a 60k mile pre-2012 car and a 100k 2013+, I'd take the 2013+ every time and twice on Sunday.
It can't get any clearer than that for me. I think it is foolhardy to hope that I can find a unicorn that will be exception to others experience and paying such a premium on low mileage no matter how well taken cared of. As DedBirdDog says the dealers know the true value of the cars without emotional attachments. I will definitely look for 2013+ only based on that. Hopefully as the 2013+ age they won't experience the same failure rate.
It can't get any clearer than that for me. I think it is foolhardy to hope that I can find a unicorn that will be exception to others experience and paying such a premium on low mileage no matter how well taken cared of. As DedBirdDog says the dealers know the true value of the cars without emotional attachments. I will definitely look for 2013+ only based on that. Hopefully as the 2013+ age they won't experience the same failure rate.
I have an '11, but I do keep an eye on the forums to see how the '13+ cars are doing. I only have 62k miles on mine, and I plan on keeping it for a long time. However, if the '13+ cars look to be more reliable, I might wait a few years and buy a '17. Of course, if nothing has gone wrong with my car by then, I face the old "keep what you know or jump into the unknown" decision.
I think this simplifies search for others looking for a 4th gen LS. Sounds like just look for 2013+ and mileage.
Why don't the dealers care about condition(subjective so I understand) but more importantly options on the cars?
Interestingly enough, a 2017 LS460 L with 80k miles just sold last week for $32k.
Dealers absolutely do consider the condition (as evidenced by the highly varible and subjective CR) in MMR valuations. The option packages are more a mixed bag. The "good" options on an LS are so rare I have to wonder if many people are even aware of them. They do not factor into MMR at all although certainly buyers that see them likely bid higher to account for them. I think Lexus has erred a great deal by not including the Ultra Luxury package, and DRCC/LKA in all of their cars. Your average LS460 isn't equipped any better than your average Camry.
Interesting conversation,the question for me would be are the things that are usually failing at the same mileage way different between a, let’s say, 2007 and a 2013 ? In other words, did Lexus fixed all the 2007 failures on the 2013 model ? If yes,then I would go for it, otherwise why not buy a low mileage 2007 or 2008 car since, performance wise, cars are similar....
Just my.02
Once any of these cars cross the 75k mile threshold, the bottom will fall out of its value. You are paying a significant premium for that extra 15k miles. The pre-2013 cars, and especially the pre-2011 cars, have a well-documented history of very expensive repairs. The jury is still out to some degree on the 2013+ cars, although the anecdotal evidence certainly suggests at this point that the problems have largely been corrected. Given the choice between a 60k mile pre-2012 car and a 100k 2013+, I'd take the 2013+ every time and twice on Sunday. What I can tell our members here is what these cars are actually worth on the dealer market. If you plan on keeping it forever, that may not be all that relevant. But if you don't, you need to understand what dealer value actually is. They have no emotional attachment and they don't care how well it's maintained or even to a large degree what options it has. It's a stone cold dollar value and chances are, if you trade your car, you're not going to like it all that much. There is a huge gap in what owners think their cars are worth and what dealers think they're worth. Be aware of that.
Originally Posted by DedBirdDog
Interestingly enough, a 2017 LS460 L with 80k miles just sold last week for $32k.
Dealers absolutely do consider the condition (as evidenced by the highly varible and subjective CR) in MMR valuations. The option packages are more a mixed bag. The "good" options on an LS are so rare I have to wonder if many people are even aware of them. They do not factor into MMR at all although certainly buyers that see them likely bid higher to account for them. I think Lexus has erred a great deal by not including the Ultra Luxury package, and DRCC/LKA in all of their cars. Your average LS460 isn't equipped any better than your average Camry.
You actually do sound like a dealer. Dealers usually are way out of touch with reality and even though they deal with cars daily they know surprisingly very little.
Since when did the 75k mile mark become the threshold for cars that are considered over the hill? For lexus that's still a baby and the value does not drop out at all at that mark, either wholesale or retail.
How can you compare a 60k mile 07 to a 100k mile 13+ as if they would be equal and on par in terms of price???? The price would be nearly double ,sounds like you have no idea on what the market for these cars is actually like.
What are the serous documented repairs of the earlier models? Control arms? brake actuator? all reasonably priced to fix unless u go to the lexus dealer.
People don't buy cars based on what they can resell them for to dealers , dealers are vultures who will not give anyone a fair market price on anything , (unless of course they were able to rip them off on a car they are selling)
For me the real world value of the car in question would be around the $16K - $18k from a lexus dealer , but they sell for even higher then that sometimes.
The LS isn't equipped any better then the average camry ? Geez man im not even gonna touch that one
To the OP, I would also recommend getting a 2013+ , but that's only if your budget allows, be prepared to spend at least $10k more for just a base 13+460, if you want the L or an F sport , the cost would go up more.
I cant wait to get into a 13+ but it wont be for another year or two , I want them to drop down a bit more in price
Not a dealer. But I do have access to dealer-only auctions and I can certainly see what these cars actually sell for. The MMR wholesale number falls off rapidly after 75k miles and I see it clearly in sales prices. It doesn't make a bit of difference what you, or I, or anyone else thinks, it's just fact. And MMR in dealer auctions drives the prices. How about this. You provide our members with your wisdom about the values and I'll keep the actual numbers to myself. Helping people save thousands of dollars should be a benefit. But hey, you know all about it so you help them.
What's the old adage about no good deed going unpunished? Yeah. clearly. Good luck with your next purchase.
Not a dealer. But I do have access to dealer-only auctions and I can certainly see what these cars actually sell for. The MMR wholesale number falls off rapidly after 75k miles and I see it clearly in sales prices. It doesn't make a bit of difference what you, or I, or anyone else thinks, it's just fact. And MMR in dealer auctions drives the prices. How about this. You provide our members with your wisdom about the values and I'll keep the actual numbers to myself. Helping people save thousands of dollars should be a benefit. But hey, you know all about it so you help them.
What's the old adage about no good deed going unpunished? Yeah. clearly. Good luck with your next purchase.
DedBirdDog: I for one have truly appreciated your insights and your willingness to freely share MMR data with our forum! There are a LOT of people on this forum who are passionate about their LS's, and we have all strong opinions on most subjects related to our cars. You are one of the few contributors who provides hard data to back up your opinion. Don't let the criticism of one member dissuade you from continuing to contribute to this amazing forum! Many people are benefiting from your information!
DedBirdDog: I for one have truly appreciated your insights and your willingness to freely share MMR data with our forum! There are a LOT of people on this forum who are passionate about their LS's, and we have all strong opinions on most subjects related to our cars. You are one of the few contributors who provides hard data to back up your opinion. Don't let the criticism of one member dissuade you from continuing to contribute to this amazing forum! Many people are benefiting from your information!
+1 on that. I love seeing real data as opposed to subjective price analysis.
03-19-19, 09:09 AM
