Lexus LFA- Discussion, Pictures & News (new colors gloss black, blue, yellow)
03-19-10, 07:35 AM
#1218
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There are several issues brought up in the above thread that I need to explain once again. First, I think the two payment lease is designed to protect Lexus and not buyers. Lexus claims that they are doing it because of high demand for the car. I can say that regardless of who I ask in exotic circles, nobody knows of anyone who plans to buy one. I think that Lexus created this least so they aren't competing against their own used cars. Believe me, if there was strong demand for the 150 cars, you'd see it on the exotic forums somewhere. This forum is the most discussion anywhere about the LFA and what, TWO people are strongly considering the car? Do we have any actual "notified" buyers here yet?
In this US market, all exotics produced in this volume are depreciating right now. I was offered more for my SV than what I spent, but it's the only one in a particular color. I think the F458 will also be the exception because of a built in market. Take a look at the used versus new numbers on both Dupont and eBay for anything. (I can just see people pulling out the Enzo, F50, F40 numbers which are unique circumstances that don't need to be rehashed again.) Now, imagine what happens to Lexus if the LFA fits the same pattern as other exotics in the current market, and there is no buzz anywhere to support the belief that the car will go in any other direction but down. Imagine now that you're on the production list for a car and a used one comes up for far less money before yours arrives that you can have right now. Chances are good you'd dive on that used LFA and cancel your order.
The problem is under this lease arrangement you can't sell so you can't manage your loss. You are tying up an asset for two years and by then the Murcielago replacement will be out, F458s will be in the pipeline at full volume, and there will likely be a new Gallardo announced, not to mention other exotics on the market. I think it's a rare person willing to tie up their money for any toy, especially on a depreciating asset.
I'm content to just wait and see what happens. I think Lexus claim regarding demand is false. That's my opinion based on my experience with exotics and the exotic community. I don't think it will take long to prove one way or another as June is right around the corner and Lexus has claimed that all buyers will be notified by then, right? We're into mid March so that should mean that 15+ buyers have already been notified (assuming about one a day) and no posts anywhere so far.
I don't think Lexus will find 150 buyers in this current market even if they dropped the lease. I predict the market for the LFA in the US is about 20 cars, if that. I'm not bashing Lexus, I'm just commenting on the reality of the exotic market. Again, only around 43 LP670-f SVs were sold in the US in the past year out of 350 worldwide.
Regarding the discussion, I don't think you have to be a potential buyer to have a good point on the LFA. I think we're all car guys first, right? It doesn't matter what we drive. This has been interesting to follow and I like the debate.
In this US market, all exotics produced in this volume are depreciating right now. I was offered more for my SV than what I spent, but it's the only one in a particular color. I think the F458 will also be the exception because of a built in market. Take a look at the used versus new numbers on both Dupont and eBay for anything. (I can just see people pulling out the Enzo, F50, F40 numbers which are unique circumstances that don't need to be rehashed again.) Now, imagine what happens to Lexus if the LFA fits the same pattern as other exotics in the current market, and there is no buzz anywhere to support the belief that the car will go in any other direction but down. Imagine now that you're on the production list for a car and a used one comes up for far less money before yours arrives that you can have right now. Chances are good you'd dive on that used LFA and cancel your order.
The problem is under this lease arrangement you can't sell so you can't manage your loss. You are tying up an asset for two years and by then the Murcielago replacement will be out, F458s will be in the pipeline at full volume, and there will likely be a new Gallardo announced, not to mention other exotics on the market. I think it's a rare person willing to tie up their money for any toy, especially on a depreciating asset.
I'm content to just wait and see what happens. I think Lexus claim regarding demand is false. That's my opinion based on my experience with exotics and the exotic community. I don't think it will take long to prove one way or another as June is right around the corner and Lexus has claimed that all buyers will be notified by then, right? We're into mid March so that should mean that 15+ buyers have already been notified (assuming about one a day) and no posts anywhere so far.
I don't think Lexus will find 150 buyers in this current market even if they dropped the lease. I predict the market for the LFA in the US is about 20 cars, if that. I'm not bashing Lexus, I'm just commenting on the reality of the exotic market. Again, only around 43 LP670-f SVs were sold in the US in the past year out of 350 worldwide.
Regarding the discussion, I don't think you have to be a potential buyer to have a good point on the LFA. I think we're all car guys first, right? It doesn't matter what we drive. This has been interesting to follow and I like the debate.
If it helps, here we have a CL member from Dominican Republic who is on the LFA waiting list and just received a letter from Lexus Japan telling him that Lexus has stopped accepting new applications for the LFA at 1100 applicants and that the 500 LFA owners will be hand-picked by Lexus within the list of these 1100 applicants in April.
https://www.clublexus.com/forums/5324069-post59.html
In other words, all 500 LFAs have been sold out.
Last edited by Mister Two; 03-19-10 at 08:51 AM.
03-19-10, 09:51 AM
#1219
I thinks folks should read and consider
Tommy's points
He makes lot of sense
No one in the US has been notified A's
Senior Management has been too busy
with real issues
I mentioned this in a recent post where I
provided track car details (prior to public
release of the info)
I would caution against saying all the 500
are sold
The screening process was good but
no money was needed to get on the list
Who knows how many folks will take a
pass when offered an allocation slot
Tommy's points
He makes lot of sense
No one in the US has been notified A's
Senior Management has been too busy
with real issues
I mentioned this in a recent post where I
provided track car details (prior to public
release of the info)
I would caution against saying all the 500
are sold
The screening process was good but
no money was needed to get on the list
Who knows how many folks will take a
pass when offered an allocation slot
03-19-10, 11:22 AM
#1221
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Join Date: Jun 2009
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I thinks folks should read and consider
Tommy's points
He makes lot of sense
No one in the US has been notified A's
Senior Management has been too busy
with real issues
I mentioned this in a recent post where I
provided track car details (prior to public
release of the info)
I would caution against saying all the 500
are sold
The screening process was good but
no money was needed to get on the list
Who knows how many folks will take a
pass when offered an allocation slot
Tommy's points
He makes lot of sense
No one in the US has been notified A's
Senior Management has been too busy
with real issues
I mentioned this in a recent post where I
provided track car details (prior to public
release of the info)
I would caution against saying all the 500
are sold
The screening process was good but
no money was needed to get on the list
Who knows how many folks will take a
pass when offered an allocation slot
So yeah, saying that the car is "sold out" is indeed too much since no real money has been involved so far, but it does look like there are many more people on the waiting list than there are cars to be built.
Last edited by Mister Two; 03-19-10 at 11:26 AM.
03-19-10, 02:59 PM
#1227
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Lexus own press says they will notify buyers between March and June. I'm assuming March 1 and June 30, 122 days to give them the full benefit of the doubt. They also said that it will take two years to build all 500. Assuming it's linear, that means that someone notified May 15, would be looking at a build date a year out and two year hold after that. Someone getting notified at the end of the notification period (assuming Lexus is telling the truth) then they would have a build date that is out two years, with another two year hold after that. This is where it really gets goofy and suspicious, to think that people are going to wait in line to plunk down the deposits to sit two years, only to then have another two year hold on them selling the car. Four years from now I seriously doubt the LFA will be competitive on any level and I seriously think those buyers would get hurt the most.
The reality is in the US market I think they will sell about one a month. A few more than that initially but after that I think it will slow down. I know how few LP640s were sold in the 2010 model year and it's a very small number. This is because of a combination of factors. One has to do with exotic saturation across the board, regardless of brand, the other has to do with a tight credit market combined with really bad depreciation at the moment.
If Lexus is now claiming they are busy with other things and have no notified anyone yet, then I'm even more suspicious that they don't have many real buyers on the list.
As for the comment about buyers not posting. You're right few do post. However, it's rare that they keep such matters secret and someone usually knows and posts something somewhere, especially if they think something will be in short supply. You end up reading a lot of buzz about availability and positioning as you see with regard to the F458 and more recently with the LP670-4 SV. I'm also starting to read and hear about people interested in ordering the new Superlaggera. There remains a lack of similar buzz about the LFA. So far this forum is the center of most of the LFA discussion.
Again, I can't speak for other markets. I only try and keep tabs on what's going on in the US. They could do extremely well with the LFA in other countries. I just don't know those markets.
The reality is in the US market I think they will sell about one a month. A few more than that initially but after that I think it will slow down. I know how few LP640s were sold in the 2010 model year and it's a very small number. This is because of a combination of factors. One has to do with exotic saturation across the board, regardless of brand, the other has to do with a tight credit market combined with really bad depreciation at the moment.
If Lexus is now claiming they are busy with other things and have no notified anyone yet, then I'm even more suspicious that they don't have many real buyers on the list.
As for the comment about buyers not posting. You're right few do post. However, it's rare that they keep such matters secret and someone usually knows and posts something somewhere, especially if they think something will be in short supply. You end up reading a lot of buzz about availability and positioning as you see with regard to the F458 and more recently with the LP670-4 SV. I'm also starting to read and hear about people interested in ordering the new Superlaggera. There remains a lack of similar buzz about the LFA. So far this forum is the center of most of the LFA discussion.
Again, I can't speak for other markets. I only try and keep tabs on what's going on in the US. They could do extremely well with the LFA in other countries. I just don't know those markets.
03-19-10, 03:50 PM
#1228
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
It's reasonable to be a Doubting Thomas on the LFA purchase process, but trying to make molehills into mountains obfuscates the issues. I think most reasonable people would regard the worst PR, legal, and alleged safety crisis in the company's history as a fair explanation for moving back the buyer process one month. Heck even an article about the LSh premiere in Tokyo found that corporate HQ in Japan was unprepared for the swarms of international media showing up! By all indications, the company is in 'Crisis Mode' with the intense media scrutiny and the unfolding 'scandal'.
And now I just spent all this posting effort for a largely moot point...back in a month.
Last edited by encore888; 03-19-10 at 03:54 PM.
03-19-10, 04:59 PM
#1229
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
'when' is an assumption. but if true, then you'll be right. i really have no idea if it will sell quick or slow. i expect to never see one again on the road!
03-19-10, 05:07 PM
#1230
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Top Gear's unreasonable and hypocritical criticism of the LFA price was frankly expected because of the big bias they have.